A couple of 3-0 Big Ten teams meet when No. 17 Iowa and No. 18 Michigan start conference play Saturday at Michigan Stadium, and I'm breaking it down with my Iowa vs. Michigan prediction. The Wolverines are 5.5-point favorites for the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, but the Hawkeyes’ dominant defense could keep this affair tight.
My college football picks target the spread and total.
TOP PICK
Who will win Iowa vs Michigan: Iowa +5.5
I like the Iowa Hawkeyes down to +4.5 because head coach Kirk Ferentz's program is annually underrated, and Michigan Wolverines head coach Kyle Whittingham is in his first season in Ann Arbor. Both coaches like to establish the run, which reduces possessions and hurts Michigan's chances of winning by a decent margin.
However, Iowa boasts the better rushing offense and the stronger run defense, and Ferentz was optimistic that running back Kamari Moulton would return this week. Moulton led the Hawkeyes with 878 rushing yards last season and is averaging a team-high 9.2 yards per carry this campaign.
It looks like Whittingham is trying to hide his quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who ranks 14th in passer rating in the Big Ten. The bottom line: I trust Iowa's offense more, and the defensive matchup is a draw.
COVERS INTEL: Over the last 10 years, Iowa is 49-39-3 against the spread (ATS) in Big Ten games with a +4.8 spread differential. 
Iowa vs Michigan Over/Under pick: Under 38.5
As simple as it sounds, the Hawkeyes field the best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 4.3 points per game, while the Wolverines scored only 30 points in their first two outings before erupting for 52 against UTEP last week. Since 2021, Iowa is 11-2 to the Under as a road underdog.
Stylistically, these are two Under teams that like to win in the trenches, and both quarterbacks have posted below-average passer ratings in the Big Ten. This isn't my favorite pick because it's going to be nice out Saturday and the total is under 40, but I lean toward the Under 38.5, down to 37.5.
Iowa vs Michigan prop: Iowa first-quarter moneyline
The Wolverines are slow starters, averaging just 4.7 first-quarter points per game (tied for 76th nationally), while the Hawkeyes score 10.0 first-quarter points per contest (10th). Also, Michigan's rushing attack isn't that good.
The Wolverines gain just 4.1 yards per rush, so they could produce a couple of 3-and-outs and set Iowa up with good field position. Iowa punt returner Evan James is a legit weapon. James averages 21.1 yards per punt return and took one back for a touchdown.
Iowa vs Michigan combo
Iowa’s path to this 5.97x combo starts with controlling the trenches and shortening the game. The Hawkeyes’ defense should keep Michigan from creating separation, while their early scoring edge supports my first-half moneyline leg.
If Iowa hangs around early and both teams lean on the run, possessions should stay limited and points scarce. That script ties all three legs together: Iowa stays inside the number, leads early, and helps keep the total Under 38.5.
Iowa vs Michigan combo (5.97x)
- Iowa +5.5
- Under 38.5
- Hawkeyes first-half moneyline
- Top picks: 6-9, -4.38 units
- Combos: 2-13, -7.25 units
Iowa vs Michigan odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Iowa +5.5 | Michigan -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (52%) | Under 38.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Iowa 36% | Michigan 69%
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Iowa vs Michigan weather
It's supposed to be in the high-60s in Ann Arbor on Saturday with a 7-mph wind and no chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Iowa vs Michigan trend to know
The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six road games. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs. Michigan.
How to watch Iowa vs Michigan
| Location | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Iowa vs Michigan latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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