Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power ranking adjustments from the prior week and share my favorite college football picks.
In Week 3, my power ratings best bets went 2-0, including the game of the week, with Mississippi beating LSU outright.
For Week 4, I have some large discrepancies with my power ratings around key numbers that you can still take advantage of.
Week 4 power ratings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last Week | This Week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 93.28 | 93.28 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 92.44 | 92.94 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 92.90 | 92.40 | -0.5 |
| 4 | Texas | 92.07 | 91.57 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Indiana | 90.53 | 90.03 | -0.5 |
| 6 | Miami (FL) | 90.15 | 89.15 | -1.0 |
| 7 | Oregon | 86.58 | 87.08 | 0.5 |
| 8 | Alabama | 86.38 | 85.88 | -0.5 |
| 9 | LSU | 86.66 | 85.66 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 82.77 | 83.77 | 1.0 |
Brad Powers Week 4 top picks
For help understanding Kalshi odds, please see our odds calculator.
| Best Bet |  |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma at  Georgia |
Georgia -13.5 53% |
 Virginia Tech at  Boston College |
Virginia Tech -13.5 53% |
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Brad Powers Week 4 power ratings
Georgia -13.5 (Sept. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Georgia a 15-point favorite here, and I would play this to -14.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS this season with an average cover of eight points per game. While they have played a very weak schedule, the Dawgs rank No. 1 in the country in yards per play margin at +5.6. They are up to No. 2 in my power ratings (see above).
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton has quietly put up some of the best stats in the country, ranking No. 1 in QBR, No. 1 in QB Rating, and No. 1 in yards per attempt, and has yet to throw an interception.
On the other side, I downgraded Oklahoma another two points for their performance vs. New Mexico last week. The Sooners only won 14-6 as 21.5-point favorites.
Georgia’s No. 2 defense in yards per play allowed is not a good matchup for a struggling Oklahoma offense that ranks No. 115 nationally in yards per game.
Finally, Kalshi has one of the best prices in the market if you want to trade Georgia under a key 14 number.
Virginia Tech -13.5 (Sept. 26, 12 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 16-point favorite, and I would play this to -14.
VT is off to a 3-0 ATS start with an average cover of 8.5 points per game. New head coach James Franklin is one of the best in recent college football history at covering the spread, with a career mark of 106-82-3 ATS (56%).
The Hokies offense ranks No. 4 nationally, averaging 50.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the defense ranks No. 1 in sacks (14) and tackles for loss (37).
I have upgraded Virginia Tech by 3 points in my power ratings, and it now ranks No. 24 nationally.
On the other side, Boston College has already matched its two wins from a year ago, but I have downgraded BC's power rating by 1.5 points since the start of the season. Last week, the Eagles almost lost outright to Maine as 37.5-point favorites.
Boston College already has a 19-point loss to Cincinnati, and Virginia Tech is far superior to the Bearcats.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Kentucky up 3.0 points
Kentucky upset No. 9 Texas A&M as 17-point underdogs. It was legitimate: Texas A&M scored two of its touchdowns late, and Kentucky averaged 14.0 yards per pass attempt while A&M averaged only 4.8. What was expected to be a rebuilding season for first-year coach Will Stein suddenly has life.
📈 Sam Houston up 2.5 points
Pay attention to the market. Sam Houston has taken money in each of its first three games and now sits at 3-0 ATS with an average cover of 19 points per game.
Last week, the Bearkats went from 17.5-point favorites to 21-point favorites on game day and crushed Nicholls State 59-0. It's early, but Sam Houston is again taking money in the market this week vs. Texas Tech, and I agree with the move.
📈 West Virginia up 2.0 points
West Virginia upset No. 25 Virginia as 10.5-point underdogs. The Mountaineers had a 437-354 yard edge and a 6.4-5.1 yards-per-play edge. Rich Rodriguez's teams are always dangerous when he has a mobile QB running his system.
He has that this year with Michael Hawkins, who ran for 123 yards and three TD's while also throwing for 190 yards and two more TD’s. Hawkins is now No. 2 in the country in QBR.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Texas A&M down 3.0 points
Texas A&M lost outright as 17-point favorites to Kentucky. QB Marcel Reed threw two interceptions and averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt (the national average is 7.9).
Now the Aggies are more than TD underdogs at LSU this week, and it's looking more like a typical 8-4 season for a Texas A&M program than a repeat of last year’s playoff appearance.
📉 Bowling Green down 2.5 points
Bowling Green is a pathetic 0-3 ATS, failing to cover its games by 18 points per game. Last week the Falcons were destroyed by Iowa State 55-7 as 22.5-point underdogs.
The Bowling Green offense ranks No. 138 (dead last), averaging 240 yards and nine points per game. The Falcons are getting out-gained by 265 yards per game (also dead last nationally).
📉 Oklahoma down 2.0 points
Fresh off an upset loss at Michigan, Oklahoma looked even worse vs. New Mexico. Oklahoma won 14-6 as 21.5-point favorites and stopped New Mexico on downs in the red zone late, easing concerns. It doesn't get any easier for the Sooners as they travel to Georgia this week.
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