There will be no shortage of attention on the matchup between Texas and Tennessee at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday at noon ET (ABC), with College GameDay on campus and the president in attendance.
The Longhorns are 5.5-point favorites against Arch Manning's uncle Peyton's alma mater, and my Texas vs. Tennessee prediction and college football picks expect the offenses to open up with offensive fireworks on Sept. 26.
Who will win Texas vs Tennessee: Tennessee +5.5
We’ll find out Saturday whether Rocky Top will always be home sweet home to Peyton Manning when his nephew, Arch Manning, faces his alma mater in a game I ranked among the must-watch matchups in my Week 4 college football Top 25 predictions.
That's because Tennessee has the talent and offense to play Texas close (I like the Volunteers to cover -4.5 or better). Josh Heupel's offense has scored 42+ points in all three games and ranks Top 20 in success rate (51.4%) and available yards percentage (61.8%).
Another slow start from Manning, who played poorly last week against UTSA (28.8 QBR), will allow Tennessee to hang around, with its veteran offensive line and efficient run game taking pressure off freshman QB Faizon Brandon.
COVERS INTEL: Since Heupel over at Tennessee in 2021, the Volunteers are 40-28 to the Over and have finished with an offense ranked Top 25 every single year, including three finishes inside the Top 10. This year, Tennessee's offense is ranked No. 3 by SP+.
TOP PICK
Texas vs Tennessee Over/Under pick: Over 55.5
One team has a Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB (Manning), and the other has a five-star freshman who was a Top 10 recruit in this past cycle (Brandon). The pair are poised to flash their first-round traits, but the run games are the biggest reason I like the Over at 56.5 or better.
The Volunteers always have a potent offense under Heupel, and this year's ground attack is lethal with DeSean Bishop playing behind a physical offensive line. The Vols are ranked fourth nationally in EPA per rush and 19th in early-down EPA per play.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns' run game should be just as impactful, even if Hollywood Smothers doesn't play. Manning's legs are an X-factor, and Raleek Brown is one of the best No. 2 running backs in the country. Tennessee's run defense has also been struggling, ranking 91st in EPA per rush.
Texas vs Tennessee combo
If Manning gets off to an iffy start, as he did against Ohio State, or his struggles from the UTSA game bleed into this one, Tennessee can keep this game close, especially in the first half.
Manning is an enigma. His inaccuracies and indecisiveness could allow Jim Knowles' defense to capitalize on missed throws and apply pressure when he holds the ball too long. He has the eighth-highest time to throw in the country (3.19 seconds).
And with the Volunteers' offensive consistency under Heupel, they're bound to hit a big play or two through the air while their physical run game wears down Texas' defense.
Texas vs Tennessee combo
- Over 55.5
- Tennessee team total Over 26.5
- Tennessee first half +2.5
- Top picks: 7-6, +0.25 units
- Combos: 3-10, -0.67 units
Texas vs Tennessee odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas -5.5 | Tennessee +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (49%) | Under 55.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Texas 63% | Tennessee 37%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Texas vs Tennessee weather
The forecast calls for borderline perfect football weather (cool, dry, and not much wind), so don't expect any impact on the game in Knoxville.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs Tennessee trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Texas' last five games after rushing for more than 200 yards in its previous game. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas vs Tennessee latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
