The game that was supposed to define the Heisman Trophy race didn't live up to the hype, with Malachi Toney's injury being a bigger headline than the game's outcome.
Despite Notre Dame knocking off Miami and sending the Hurricanes tumbling from No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 7, Darian Mensah still leads the Heisman Trophy odds.
But with this race still wide open, my Heisman Hedge Fund highlights a few under-the-radar contenders with my Heisman Trophy ballot ahead of Week 11.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Miami vs. Notre Dame was supposed to make the Heisman Trophy odds clearer, but instead it only made this year's lackluster race all the more murky. Malachi Toney's injury at practice leading up to the game completely derailed the board, temporarily sending Jeremiah Smith back to the top.
Without Toney, Darian Mensah lost to CJ Carr in a game that went from a Notre Dame blowout to Miami covering +7.5 with a second-half surge. Neither passer played a complete game, with Carr looking as good as he ever has in the first half but leading the Fighting Irish to just one score over their final five drives.
Mensah didn't get the Hurricanes in the end zone until their seventh drive but managed to put together a near comeback. The winner was supposed to separate as the Heisman favorite, but despite Carr jumping from 10% to 19%, he still hasn't overtaken Mensah, who fell from 37% to 30%.
And even with Ohio State losing two straight games, Smith is still more than alive in the race at 28%, after catching 17 passes for 216 yards and two scores in Saturday's loss with Luke Fahey at QB.
The Heisman Trophy Ceremony is a month away (Saturday, Dec. 12), with ballots due by Monday, Dec. 7, so where does the value lie at this point? Not with Carr or Mensah, that's for sure.
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My Week 11 Heisman ballot & portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Place |  Probability |
Position/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
First (winner) | 28% | Hold (Yes: 29¢) |
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Second (finalist) | 5% | Hold (Yes: 5¢) |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Third (finalist) | 19% | Sell (No: 81¢) |
 Darian Mensah, QB |
Fourth (finalist) | 30% | Sell (No: 72¢) |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Fifth | 1% | Hold (Yes: 1¢) |
 Gio Lopez, QB |
Sixth | 1% | Buy (Yes: 1¢) |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Seventh | 5% | Sell (No: 96¢) |
 Nate Sheppard, RB |
Eighth | N/A | N/A (penny stock when available) |
 Jesse Legree, WR |
Ninth | 1% | Hold (Yes: 1¢) |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
10th | 2% | Hold (Yes: 3¢) |
Buy: Gio Lopez, Wake Forest
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 2,176 passing yards, 317 rushing yards, 24 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: Third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the country (1.4%)
- Week 11 opponent: at SMU
There's finally some real buzz for Gio Lopez as a Heisman contender, even if the CFP selection committee continues to disrespect Wake Forest. Lopez has been as efficient as any QB in the country this season, ranking top 10 nationally in QBR (84.3) while helping Wake Forest rank No. 1 in EPA per dropback, No. 3 in available yards percentage (64.4%), and No. 4 in points per opportunity (4.90).
In Wake's lone loss this season, he threw three touchdown passes against Miami and almost sparked a comeback. Since then, he's put up an 87.7+ QBR in five straight games and accounted for 15 touchdowns. He and Carlos Hernandez have made Wake must-watch TV in Rob Ezell's offense.
Now is the time to buy Lopez as a contender ahead of Wake's road matchup with 7-2 SMU on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are 1.5-point underdogs, and if they win, Lopez will see his price jump up, especially with Wake's final two games being against Georgia Tech and Duke.
Buy Lopez now, and sell in the next two weeks for a profit.
Sell: Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
- Kalshi probability: 6%
- 2026 stats: 2,962 passing yards, 177 rushing yards, 32 total TDs, 8 INTs
- Key metric: Leads the Power Four in turnover-worthy plays (17)
- Week 11 opponent: vs. Texas Tech
Yes, Drew Mestemaker has played his way into being the favorite to be the No. 1 pick, according to the 2027 NFL Draft odds, but he's quietly been sporadic the last few weeks. While there are still plenty of highlight throws on tape justifying the buzz for a kid who didn't even start at QB in high school becoming the No. 1 pick, there's also been a lot of questionable decision-making that comes with a lack of reps.
Mestemaker is one of nine P4 QBs who have thrown 8+ interceptions this season, and he's lucky there haven't been more, especially recently. The Oklahoma State QB has a whopping 4.7% turnover-worthy play rate, including 10 turnover-worthy plays in his last three games.
After buying him at a penny, I feel good about selling now for a profit before the Pokes take on Texas Tech's defense. The Red Raiders are the only team in the Power Four with 10+ interceptions (13) and 25+ sacks (29).
The Pokes also already have three losses, including two ugly ones to Tulsa and an Iowa State team that might not make a bowl game.
Hold: Devon Dampier, Utah
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2026 stats: 2,053 passing yards, 482 rushing yards, 27 total TDs, 7 INTs
- Key metric: Sixth nationally in big-time throw rate (7.5%)
- Week 11 opponent: at Arizona
Devon Dampier is finally being taken seriously as a Heisman contender after putting Utah on his back to win the Holy War.
Against a BYU defense that held Carr to his lowest QBR of the season (67.0) and kept him from accounting for any TDs in an upset loss, Dampier finished with 177 passing yards, 89 rushing yards, four total TDs, and made a wild catch on a fourth-down trick play.
He's been the best pure playmaker at QB this season and has the Utes undefeated, with Utah beating two ranked opponents in its last three games. Another splashy game in a major Big 12 clash could see his probability jump up to 10%.
Luckily for Dampier, Utah has another ranked matchup on Saturday against No. 23 Arizona in primetime (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX). A road win against the Wildcats will put him on a clear path to being a Heisman finalist.
Dampier is one of only two P4 QBs with 2,000+ passing yards and 450+ rushing yards, and he's the only QB in all of college football with a big-time throw rate above 7% and a turnover-worthy play rate below 2%.
Penny Stock: Nate Sheppard, Duke
- Kalshi probability: N/A
- 2026 stats: 1,189 rushing yards, 306 receiving yards, 22 total TDs
- Key metric: Leads the country in 10+-yard runs (36)
- Week 11 opponent: at Miami
Though Mensah is the Heisman favorite, the rest of the ACC's top stars haven't received much attention this season. It's not just Lopez that's being slept on as a Heisman contender; it's also the star running back 80 miles east of him, Nate Sheppard.
Sheppard is the best running back in college football right now and should be on the board after what he's done in his last three games. After throwing a game-winning touchdown to beat Virginia in Week 8, he carried the Blue Devils to blowout wins in Week 9 and 10 by scoring a combined eight touchdowns.
The sophomore is top five nationally in rushing yards (1,189), rushing TDs (17), rushing yards after contact (761), forced missed tackles (49), and 10+-yard runs. His numbers through nine games are comparable to the last running back to win the Heisman, Derrick Henry, and the running back who finished second that year, Christian McCaffrey.
A big showing against Miami and his former teammate, Mensah, on Saturday will put Sheppard on the map as a Heisman contender.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/29¢ |
| Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/3¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/1¢ |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/1¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
| Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/5¢ |
| Jesse Legree, WR |
Week 7 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
| Gio Lopez, QB |
Week 11 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/81¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/99¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/72¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
| Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/96¢ |
 Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Week 7 | Sell (No) | 95¢/99¢ |
 Bear Bachmeier, QB |
Week 8 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 11 | Sell (No) | 95¢/95¢ |
| Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/6¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Conner Weigman, QB |
Week 8 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Charlie Becker, WR |
Week 9 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Nate Sheppard, RB |
Week 11 | Penny stock (Yes) | N/A (buy when available) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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