Following Week 3, a new name sits atop the Heisman Trophy odds as the favorite to win college football's top award.
After Ole Miss star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss took down former head coach Lane Kiffin this past Saturday, he shot to the top of the Heisman board.
However, as special as Chambliss has been so far this season, the star suiting up for his Week 4 opponent is who I'm buying this week in my Heisman Hedge Fund.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Three weeks into the season, three different players have held the top spot on the Heisman Trophy oddsboard.
It began with Notre Dame's CJ Carr; his probability has since slipped from 12% to 8%.
Then, Miami's Darian Mensah became the biggest favorite at 17% (now 18%).
And after Week 3, the top spot belongs to Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss. He jumped from 6% to 20% after beating LSU.
The change at the top is a good reminder that the Heisman isn't won in September, and Mensah throwing eight touchdowns against Stanford and Florida A&M in his first two games won't really matter for this award in late November.
What does matter is a signature win with several wow throws in a game everyone is watching. That's why Chambliss should be the favorite right now; he put up an 89.7 QBR against LSU and made clutch plays in the biggest moments.
That said, it's still too early to comfortably buy a Heisman contender with a probability above 15%. After all, we're only a quarter of the way into the season.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Week 4 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Buy | 2% | Yes (3¢) |
 Darian Mensah, QB |
Sell | 18% | No (83¢) |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Hold | 3% | Yes (current price: 3¢/purchase price: 6¢) |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- 2026 stats: 458 rushing yards, 8.5 AVG, 8 TDs
- Key metric: Leads the country in forced missed tackles (30)
- Week 4 opponent: vs. Ole Miss
A running back hasn't won the Heisman since Alabama's Derrick Henry in 2015. Could that change this year?
If any RB is going to take home the Heisman, it will be Florida's Jadan Baugh, who's a bargain at this price considering how productive he's been and how important he is to his team's success. Baugh, the top running back prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft, has been a horse for Jon Sumrall's Gators.
He's second nationally in rushing yards, topping 135 in all three games this season, and leads the country in rushing touchdowns. Baugh also just had one of the most dominant performances of his career on the road against Auburn. Against the Tigers, the 228-pounder ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns while forcing 11 missed tackles and ripping off two 33+-yard TD runs.
Baugh's contact balance, fluidity, and lateral explosiveness are why he leads the country with three runs of 50+ yards and could help him rumble his way to the Heisman.
Florida also has no shortage of major matchups that should help Baugh on the narrative side of the Heisman race. The Gators play No. 4 Ole Miss on Saturday before facing No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia in October.
At worst, Baugh should continue to climb the board as the season progresses.
Sell: Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
- Kalshi probability: 18%
- 2026 stats: 873 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 0 INTs
- Key metric: 4.8 ADOT vs. Wake Forest
- Week 4 opponent: vs. Central Michigan
On Friday night, social media was ablaze after Mensah started 24-for-24 passing against Wake Forest and built a 31-7 lead.
After that, it was far less impressive. Wake outscored the Hurricanes 13-2 over the final quarter and a half, while Mensah went 6-for-10 and led zero scoring drives (including going three-and-out on four of the final six).
More concerning for his Heisman case was how few high-level throws he made. Mensah rarely pushed the ball beyond five yards and finished with the lowest ADOT of his career (4.8). That came against a Demon Deacons defense that ranks 91st nationally in EPA per pass.
One of the biggest questions with Mensah is his arm talent, and if it limits his ability to make NFL-level throws, it could hurt him as a Heisman contender, especially since he adds next to nothing as a runner.
Miami's schedule could also work against Mensah, with No. 3 Notre Dame representing the Canes' only ranked opponent this season.
Hold: Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2026 stats: 764 passing yards, 6 total TDs, 2 INTs
- Key metric: 79.5% adjusted completion rate
- Week 4 opponent: vs. South Carolina
The primary reason I added Keelon Russell to my Heisman portfolio before the season is that he's a five-star talent in a proven system. Russell was the No. 2 recruit in the country in 2025, and Kalen DeBoer's offense is among the most QB-friendly in college football.
Since 2021, DeBoer's starting QBs have averaged 4,010 passing yards and 35 total TDs per season. And after a justifiably slow start for the redshirt freshman, Russell had his breakout game in Week 3 against Florida State.
The former Duncanville star weathered an ugly start, which included an actual weather delay, and led the Crimson Tide back from a 21-6 deficit to win 50-36. Russell accounted for 376 total yards and four touchdowns with an 85.7% adjusted completion rate. He also finished with the third-highest QBR in the country in Week 3 (96.2).
Russell's probability of winning the Heisman has dropped from 6% to 3% since the start of the season, but I'm expecting it to rebound as he stacks impressive performances in SEC play. The best move is to hold him for now and reevaluate ahead of Alabama's game against No. 2 Georgia on Oct. 10.
Penny stock: Lincoln Kienholz, QB, Louisville
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 816 passing yards, 10 total TDs, 0 INTs
- Key metric: 14th nationally in QBR (83.6)
- Week 4 opponent: vs. Wake Forest
By far the biggest win I've had with my Heisman portfolio so far was adding Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor at a penny stock price (2¢) following Week 1. He's since jumped up to 12¢ and sits behind only Chambliss and Mensah on the board.
Realistically, finding a value like that isn't happening again, but I can't understand why Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz is priced behind 12 other quarterbacks.
Kienholz already had bright moments in his first career start against Ole Miss in Week 1, a game he lost on a walk-off field goal. And in Week 3, the junior pivot beat No. 16 SMU in a pivotal ACC matchup.
He looked so good in the win over SMU that the Ohio State transfer had Buckeyes fans flooding my mentions about how they should never have let Kienholz go.
Considering his athletic upside (arm talent, mobility) in a proven offensive coach's system (Jeff Brohm), Kienholz should continue to put up big numbers and climb the board.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
A quarter of the way through the college football season, I'm still feeling pretty good about most of my Heisman buys.
Jeremiah Smith and Toney continue to prove they're the best players in college football; Russell just had his breakout game; and it's nice to add a running back to the portfolio, especially the best one in the sport.
The penny stock buys have been mixed. Taylor is the obvious big winner, and it's too early to tell on the others. I also don't regret selling any of the QBs I have so far, especially Sam Leavitt, LaNorris Sellers, and Arch Manning (who really struggled in Week 3 against UTSA).
My biggest misstep remains Oregon's Dante Moore, but with plenty of season left, that price could still rebound and make him a prime sell candidate for a profit.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/9¢ |
| Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/3¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/2¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/4¢ |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/4¢ |
| Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/3¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/93¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/97¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/93¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/83¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/12¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
