Wisconsin heads to Happy Valley for a Big Ten opening game against Penn State.
Both teams looked good against overmatched foes last week, and my Wisconsin vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks expect the Badgers to put a scare into the Nittany Lions with a road cover.
Before the game kicks off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sept. 26 on Peacock, let's dive into why I'm heavy on Wisconsin.
TOP PICK
Who will win Wisconsin vs Penn State: Wisconsin +9.5
As long as the spread is over a touchdown and under 50%, I’d stick with Wisconsin. Penn State has looked dominant against a very weak non-conference schedule, while Wisconsin got a test right out of the gate, opening with a loss to No. 3 Notre Dame. The Badgers have looked better each succeeding week.
This week, Wisconsin gets a playmaker back, while Penn State will likely be missing one. Running back Abu Sama, who missed last week’s game with injury, is expected to return for the Badgers.
The Nittany Lions haven’t faced anyone like Sama, or Wisconsin’s passing attack that complements him. Two of Penn State’s three opponents have ranked below 100 in ELO.
Meanwhile, Penn State lost receiver Koby Howard, who leads the Big Ten in yards per catch. He’s listed as questionable on the injury report but is expected to miss extended time.
That may not be enough to put Wisconsin over the top, but it should keep the Badgers close.
COVERS INTEL: Sama’s return should help a Wisconsin passing attack that had nine big plays against Eastern Michigan last week. Sama is also a big-play threat, gaining 107 yards on just eight carries in week two. Quarterback Colton Joseph is mobile and leads the team in rushing attempts through three games.
Wisconsin vs Penn State Over/Under pick: Under 44.5
Penn State’s defense hasn’t played a power conference opponent yet, but it’s looked about as good as it’s possible to look against cupcakes. The Nittany Lions lead the nation in third-down defense and pass efficiency defense and are top three in passing yards allowed and points per game. The starters have not allowed a touchdown this season.
Big Ten play will also tamp down both offenses. Over the last two seasons, Penn State has averaged 42.7 points scored in non-conference play but fell to 29.6 in the conference season. Wisconsin, who, like this season with Notre Dame, played one tough opponent (Alabama) in non-conference, averaged 22.8 points over the last two non-Big Ten schedules but fell to 16 in conference play.
With Howard out and Sama returning, both teams will be running the ball more than in previous weeks, which should bleed clock and keep the score low as well.
Wisconsin vs Penn State combo
Wisconsin has won the second quarter in all three games, including over Notre Dame.
The Badgers’ 41 second-quarter points are 18 more than they’ve scored in any other quarter, and their six points allowed are 11 fewer than any other quarter.
Look for Wisconsin to make another strong push toward halftime in Happy Valley as Penn State is unable to pull away like during the non-conference schedule.
Wisconsin vs Penn State combo
- Wisconsin +9.5
- Under 44.5
- Wisconsin +3.5 in 2nd Quarter
- Top picks: 13-8, +19.62 units
- Combos: 0-2, +0.00 units
Wisconsin vs Penn State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Wisconsin +9.5 (47%) | Penn State -9.5 (54%)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (52%) | Under 44.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Wisconsin 22% | Penn State 78%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Wisconsin vs Penn State weather
It should be a mild fall day in Happy Valley on Saturday. The temperature will be coming down from a high of 67 by the time 5:00 kickoff rolls around. There’s only a 10% chance of rain and winds will be 7 mph.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Wisconsin vs Penn State trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Badgers last 8 games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Penn State.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Penn State
| Location | Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Wisconsin vs Penn State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
