Hump Day MACtion! The Bulls are coming off an incredible comeback win over the RedHawks last week, but will they have enough left in the tank to secure their sixth straight victory?
My Buffalo vs. Ball State predictions have the Cardinals sneaking past the Bulls in this Wednesday night matchup.
Be sure to check out all of our college football picks for Week 11!
TOP PICK
Who will win Buffalo vs Ball State: Ball State +2.5
Buffalo finds itself in what feels like an all-time letdown spot, as the Bulls are coming off a thrilling comeback against Miami (Ohio). Buffalo scored 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to tie the game before pulling out a 34-31 overtime win.
Meanwhile, Ball State fell just short in overtime, losing 31-30 to UMass last week as a 2.5-point underdog.
The Cardinals have to feel a bit disrespected as a field-goal underdog in this spot, especially considering they're 2-1 since their tough loss to Northwestern. Buffalo may be 5-1 over its last six games, but this feels like a classic letdown spot for the Bulls and a buy-low opportunity for Ball State.
Take the points, or back the Cardinals to win outright if the spread drops.
COVERS INTEL: Ball State ranks fifth in the MAC in explosive plays this season, recording 65. Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks fourth-lowest in the conference despite generating a few explosive plays last week.
Buffalo vs Ball State Over/Under pick: Over 50.5
Even with rain potentially slowing these teams down, Buffalo is still going to play its game: fast. The Bulls rank in the Top 20 nationally in seconds per play overall, on their first three drives, and when trailing in the second half. Even when holding a second-half lead, Buffalo ranks 29th in seconds per play.
Ball State may be nearly 100 spots slower in those categories, but the Cardinals are allowing nearly 30 points per game during conference play. Overall, they're giving up 438 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.
Buffalo has been a revolving door defensively as well, allowing opponents to score 27 points per game while surrendering nearly 400 yards per contest.
Playable up to 51.5.
Buffalo vs Ball State combo
For this combo, let's forget the points and back the Cardinals outright. Points shouldn't come at a premium in this matchup, considering both defenses are mediocre at best. With Buffalo likely pushing the pace, the Over should make for a fun sweat as well.
Buffalo vs Ball State combo
- Ball State moneyline
- Over 50.5
- Top picks: 78-59, +17.90 units
Buffalo vs Ball State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Buffalo -2.5 | Ball State +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (49%) | Under 50.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Buffalo 54% | Ball State 46%
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Buffalo vs Ball State weather
Expect some light rain in Muncie, with temperatures in the lower 50s. Those temperatures should dip into the high 40s by kickoff for this Wednesday night MACtion showdown.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Buffalo vs Ball State trend to know
Ball State has hit the team total Over in nine of its last 12 games (+5.85 units, 43% ROI).
Find more college football betting trends for Buffalo vs. Ball State.
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How to watch Buffalo vs Ball State
| Location | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Buffalo vs Ball State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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