Best NFL Picks Today

Playable to 48%.

Allen leads qualified Indianapolis receivers in targets per route run (27.8%) and first-read targets (23) since Week 3. Jacksonville's pass defense hasn't been great this season, either, ranking 14th in EPA/play allowed and 19th in success rate allowed.

The Titans have problems giving up home runs over the top and Higgins is one the best deep threats in the land, averaging 21.6 air yards per reception and amassing eight catches for 20+ yards. Tennessee has also been burned by WR2s to start the season, rating 24th in DVOA vs. WR2s at FTN while giving up almost 56 yards per game to those second options. Most forecasts come in above 80 yards and my projection sits just shy of 81 yards receiving for Higgins.

Concepcion anytime TD is playable up to 25%. He leads Cleveland in targets and catches, also gets designed rushing touches, and faces a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 29th in missed tackles.

This Over is in play up to 56% because Murray has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks. The Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completion despite playing just six games, and Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate.

Pitts anytime TD is playable up to 27%. He leads Atlanta with four touchdown catches, Tampa Bay has allowed five scores to tight ends, and Bijan Robinson and Drake London help create favorable one-on-one matchups.

The Cardinals run one of the highest rates of zone coverage and Lamb is excellent at spotting seams in that defense. He’s not only a downfield threat but also a catch-and-run weapon, exploiting an Arizona defense giving up the seventh most yards after the catch. The Cardinals have given up 10 touchdowns to WRs (second most) and Lambs’ TD forecasts for Week 8 all sit at 60% or higher, with some projections at 80%. 

I recommend this Over up to 46.5 because the Raiders and Jets send out two of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas has allowed the highest offensive success rate while ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA over the past five weeks, and New York has been nearly as bad with respective 26th-ranked marks in the metrics during the same stretch.

Bills games average a league-high 61.33 combined points, and Buffalo comes off a bye leading the NFL in scoring, yards per play, and explosive play rate. Baltimore has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last five, but Lamar Jackson’s return should help it punch back against Buffalo’s 30th-ranked scoring defense. These teams combined for 81 points in a game last season. 

The Chargers are coming off the bye, meaning embattled offensive wizard Mike McDaniel had a week to tinker. Look for that to mean plays for Vidal, who has seen his time and targets increase as he takes them from fellow RB Omarion Hampton. 

I recommend this Henry Over up to 41.5 receiving yards because Miami has allowed 29 receptions and a league-high 93.5% catch rate to tight ends over the past three weeks. Henry has also recorded 40 or more receiving yards in four straight while catching 19 of 21 targets for an average of 56.3 yards per game, and he ranks fifth in EPA per target and third in catch rate among tight ends for the year.

I recommend this touchdown prop to 35% after Coleman handled a 49% snap share and sparked Denver to a fourth-ranked rushing DVOA in Week 7. Head coach Sean Payton is looking to give Coleman more touches, and veteran rusher J.K. Dobbins has dipped to just 3.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Coleman's high-end 0.12 EPA per rush and physical between-the-tackles style make him the best option for red-zone looks in the Denver backfield.

Barkley has been green lit for the game after battling a hamstring last week. He still topped 60 yards and a score in last week's game despite departing after 7 carries. When he plays he produces 

Seattle runs the highest rate of zone coverage in the land, which means Williams will look for Luther Burden III. He’s rated as one of the best WRs versus zone coverage at PFF, averaging almost 15 yards per reception when sitting into those seams. Projections all sit north of 50 receiving yards with a ceiling just shy of 60 yards. My number comes out to 56+ receiving yards for Burden in prime time.