Best NFL Picks Today

Rice played in only eight games last year, due to suspension and a late-season concussion, and still finished with five touchdowns. He’s logged just a dozen contests the past two seasons, with touchdowns in seven of those games. He’s Kansas City’s primary slot option, which bodes well versus the Broncos’ pressure. Mahomes will be looking to get rid of the ball quickly and Rice offers a dangerous short-yardage target. Denver got beat up by slot receivers last season, giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the position. Player projections for Rice sit as high as a 51% chance of a touchdown, which has me playing the 1+ TD as high as 40% on Monday.

These offenses scored a combined 67 points in Week 1 and I don't expect the scoring to slow down. Buffalo averaged a ridiculous 7.9 yards per play against an elite Houston D, while Detroit's offense took their foot off the gas after going up 21-0 halfway through the third quarter. Both defenses showed red flags to open the season. Expect an offensive showcase for Buffalo’s stadium opener, with Detroit having the firepower to go shot for shot. Their most recent meeting in 2024 produced 90 points.
 
 
 
 

The Steelers are built for Unders, and the Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, and New England QB Drake Maye’s 5.4 YPA and 6.5 aDoT in the season opener don’t jump off the page, either. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, with the Pats surrendering the seventh lowest ahead of Monday Night Football, so we’re landing a fair number on this Under given the lack of offensive explosiveness going against this pair of stout stop units.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.