Best NFL Picks Today

Josh Allen will do everything he can to make sure the Bills win this first game at new Highmark Stadium. That includes tearing up the turf with his legs. If you’ve followed Allen’s stellar career, you know he does his most damage on the ground in high-stakes showdowns and playoff pressure. He had 30+ in both playoff outings as well as high-profile pairings with Baltimore, New England (twice), Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. On top of calling his own number for designed runs, Allen will get flushed out of the pocket and put on the run by an aggressive Detroit defense that blitzed at the third highest rate in Week 1, collecting five sacks. Projections range from 27.5 to 35 rushing yards for the Bills QB, with my number at 33 but recognizing the higher ceiling based on Allen’s “Big Game” tendencies.

Pittsburgh is shipping out to Boston to battle the Patriots, who have had extra time to stew over their dud at Seattle on opening night. New England’s offense looked bad and it’s running thin on weapons, with WR1 A.J. Brown out and RB TreVeyon Henderson questionable. The Patriots averaged 4.1 yards per play in Week 1 and now face a retooled Steelers defense that tops all those sexy advanced metrics. Yes, Pittsburgh did beat up on Atlanta and a third-stringer last Sunday but those analytics that account for all that still love the Steelers, who are tops in defensive DVOA and No. 2 in EPA allowed per play. Laying almost six points seems like a steel climb for a Pats offense this Sunday.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

The reason I gravitate to Lamb over Pickens in Week 2 is Washington’s new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones and his blitz-happy approach. He blitzed at the fifth highest rate in Week 1 (37.5% up from 23.5% in 2025). Dak Prescott is exceptional at recognizing and exposing the blitz, most often finding Lamb on quick reads for yards after the catch. He has six touchdowns in 11 career games versus Washington and multiple projections have Lambs’s TD probability as high as 60% on Sunday.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.