Best NFL Picks Today

Josh Allen will do everything he can to make sure the Bills win this first game at new Highmark Stadium. That includes tearing up the turf with his legs. If you’ve followed Allen’s stellar career, you know he does his most damage on the ground in high-stakes showdowns and playoff pressure. He had 30+ in both playoff outings as well as high-profile pairings with Baltimore, New England (twice), Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. On top of calling his own number for designed runs, Allen will get flushed out of the pocket and put on the run by an aggressive Detroit defense that blitzed at the third highest rate in Week 1, collecting five sacks. Projections range from 27.5 to 35 rushing yards for the Bills QB, with my number at 33 but recognizing the higher ceiling based on Allen’s “Big Game” tendencies.

Pittsburgh is shipping out to Boston to battle the Patriots, who have had extra time to stew over their dud at Seattle on opening night. New England’s offense looked bad and it’s running thin on weapons, with WR1 A.J. Brown out and RB TreVeyon Henderson questionable. The Patriots averaged 4.1 yards per play in Week 1 and now face a retooled Steelers defense that tops all those sexy advanced metrics. Yes, Pittsburgh did beat up on Atlanta and a third-stringer last Sunday but those analytics that account for all that still love the Steelers, who are tops in defensive DVOA and No. 2 in EPA allowed per play. Laying almost six points seems like a steel climb for a Pats offense this Sunday.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The Saints showed tremendous fight against the Lions. New Orleans was down 21-0 in the third quarter before scoring 24 second half points and pushing Detroit to the brink in overtime.  That had the Saints covering as 6.5-point road dogs. Much like Washington, NOLA found its footing in the final 30 minutes and rated Top 10 in EPA among 2H offenses in Week 1. The Saints were also Top 10 in third down success and red-zone scoring (4 for 5). This spread was New Orleans +7.5 in the summer and has jumped to +8.5 (and as high as +9 at some shops), despite those ailments to the Ravens receiving corps. Baltimore wins but not by this many.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

The Commanders overcame a no-show first half in Philadelphia and looked very strong offensively in the final 30 minutes, amassing almost 200 yards and 13 points against the Eagles’ elite stop unit. Washington was No. 6 in EPA per play in 2H offense last week. Defensively, the Commies dialed up the chaos. New defensive coordinator Daronte Jones blitzed at the fifth highest rate among all Week 1 stop units, boiling up the ninth best pressure rate and three sacks. That was against Philly’s protection, which rates out as a Top 5 o-line. The Cowboys offensive line is nowhere close to that and losing LG Tyler Smith showed up against New York last Sunday night.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.