Patrick Mahomes takes center stage in our Week 8 NFL prop picks, as we're counting on the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback to use his legs against a relentless Denver Broncos pass rush.
Be sure to head to our NFL picks page for the full menu of expert selections.
Week 8 prop picks at a glance (Sunday, Nov. 1 and Monday, Nov. 2)
| Matchup & kickoff | Prop pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills 1 p.m. |
Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards Jason Logan |
| Titans vs. Bengals 1 p.m. |
Tee Higgins 70+ receiving yards Jason Logan |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys 1 p.m. |
Michael Wilson 60+ receiving yards Jason Logan |
| Vikings vs. Lions 1 p.m. |
Kyler Murray 20+ passing completions Neil Parker |
| Colts vs. Jaguars 1 p.m. |
Keenan Allen 40+ receiving yards Nick Galaida |
| Raiders vs. Jets 1 p.m. |
Omar Cooper Jr. 40+ receiving yards Neil Parker |
| Browns vs. Steelers 1 p.m. |
Dylan Sampson 10+ rushing yards Geoff Clark |
| Falcons vs. Buccaneers 1 p.m. |
Baker Mayfield Under 224.5 passing yards Geoff Clark |
| Chargers vs. Rams 4:05 p.m. |
Matthew Stafford Under 34 passing attempts Shawn Krest |
| Chiefs vs. Broncos 4:25 p.m. |
Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards Neil Parker |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins 4:25 p.m. |
Hunter Henry 40+ receiving yards Neil Parker |
| Eagles vs. Commanders 8:20 p.m. |
Antonio Williams 30+ receiving yards Jason Logan |
| Bears vs. Seahawks Mon., 8:15 p.m. |
Caleb Williams Under 225 passing yards Josh Inglis |
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Expert NFL prop picks
Ravens vs. Bills
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Jason Logan
Prop pick: Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards
Whenever Josh Allen finds himself in a marquee matchup — be it regular season or playoffs — he’s not afraid to put the entire offense on his back.
Allen did just that two games ago, rushing for 121 yards in a shootout with the L.A. Rams and rumbled for 69 yards in another high-profile bout with Detroit in Week 2.
In fact, it seems any time Allen & Co. are facing a short spread, either as dogs or favorites, he’s breaking off big gains with his legs.
Going back to November 2024, Allen has rushed for at least 30 yards in nine of the previous 14 games with closing spreads of four points or shorter. He’s averaged more than 43 yards rushing in those contests.
His Week 8 projections range from 29 yards to a ceiling of 40.5 yards rushing, with my number at 38.5 gains on the ground and giving plenty of respect to the higher forecasts.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Check out our full Ravens vs. Bills predictions!
Titans vs. Bengals
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Jason Logan
Prop pick: Tee Higgins 70+ receiving yards
Cincinnati has arguably the best one-two punch at receiver in the NFL, with Tee Higgins serving as “Robin” to Ja’Marr Chase’s “Batman”. But don’t tell Higgins that.
He looked more like Superman in Week 7, putting in a monster effort in the win over the rival Ravens. He caught six of seven balls his way for 148 yards and a touchdown. That includes a 44-yard dinger on a broken play with Burrow dodging pressure.
We mentioned the Titans’ problems giving up home runs over the top, and Higgins is one of the best deep threats in the land, averaging 21.6 air yards per reception and amassing eight catches for 20+ yards.
Tennessee has also been burned by WR2s to start the season, rating 24th in DVOA vs. WR2s at FTN while giving up almost 56 yards per game to those second options.
Higgins’ Week 8 models are very bullish on his receiving yards, ranging from 65 to a high of 91. Most forecasts come in above 80 yards, and my projection sits just shy of 81 yards receiving.
Check out our full Titans vs. Bengals predictions!
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Analyst: Jason Logan
Prop pick: Michael Wilson 60+ receiving yards
Arizona head coach Mike LaFleur was asked about Michael Wilson’s surprising lack of involvement in recent weeks, even with former WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. traded away.
LaFleur danced around the probing question, telling the media, “At receiver, all you can do is control what you can control.”
Wilson’s targets have tanked in the past three games, drawing 22 collective balls for four catches in each of those outings. He’s put forth receiving efforts of 30, 32, and 55 yards.
He had 13 and 17 targets in the two games prior to that power outage, reeling in 18 receptions for a total of 184 yards.
Sunday’s trip to Dallas is a pass-positive game script for the large road underdog, and while QB Jacoby Brissett has fallen off a cliff, he faces a soft Cowboys secondary making all QBs look like Pro Bowlers (opponent passer rating of 105.2).
Brissett is at his best against man coverage and faces a Dallas defense running a higher rate of man-on-man than most secondaries. Wilson rates out as the Cardinals’ top one-on-one receiver.
Most of his Week 8 projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 70 yards receiving. My forecast comes out to 63+ yards from Wilson, buying back a market that was as high as 80+ just three games ago.
Check out our full Cardinals vs. Cowboys predictions!
Vikings vs. Lions
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Kyler Murray 20+ passing completions
In addition to the noted case for Murray to complete 20 or more passes against the Lions, he’s also posted a career-high 79.5 adjusted completion percentage while having his highest average time to throw.
The Minnesota passing attack is finally at full strength, too. Murray and go-to wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison had only been on the field together for 18 snaps before their Week 7 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Check out our full Vikings vs. Lions predictions!
Colts vs. Jaguars
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Nick Galaida
Prop pick: Keenan Allen 40+ receiving yards
Keenan Allen had just 31 receiving yards last weekend against the Vikings, but that was still enough to lead all Colts pass-catchers in Week 7.
Since Week 3, Allen has led qualified Indianapolis receivers in targets per route run (27.8%) and first-read targets (23). Jacksonville's pass defense hasn't been great this season, either, ranking 14th in EPA/play allowed and 19th in success rate allowed.
If windy conditions make throwing downfield a challenge, Allen's skill set as a low-aDOT receiver makes him a potentially weather-resistant option in this matchup.
Check out our full Colts vs. Jaguars predictions!
Raiders vs. Jets
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Omar Cooper Jr. 40+ receiving yards
This Over is playable up to 45+ receiving yards for Cooper.
In addition to the highlighted case for Cooper, he’s also posted a high-end 4.27 yards per route run over the past two weeks, and QB Geno Smith has an elite 158.3 NFL passer rating when targeting the wideout during the heater.
I also particularly value Cooper's 3.36 average yards of separation, which ranks in the 80th percentile.
Check out our full Raiders vs. Jets predictions!
Browns vs. Steelers
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Dylan Sampson 10+ rushing yards
Dylan Sampson's 10+ rushing yards prop is a few yards too low.
He suffered an injury against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, and last week marked his return. Sampson rushed for 45 yards on six carries with an 83.3% success rate against the Tennessee Titans.
More importantly, Sampson nearly matched Browns starting RB Quinshon Judkins in offensive snap share (53% to 46%).
My hunch is that Monken's season-long plan is to use a two-headed backfield, and I'd also consider Sampson's 15+ and 20+ rushing yards props at plus-money.
Check out our full Browns vs. Steelers predictions!
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Baker Mayfield Under 224.5 passing yards
Baker Mayfield's 225+ passing yards prop is about five yards too high.
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles loves to establish the run, and the weather conditions probably won't be quarterback-friendly. More importantly, Mayfield hasn't thrown for more than 217 yards in any game this season.
Finally, Atlanta's defense ranks 11th in yards per pass allowed, and the Falcons have faced quarterbacks such as Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Caleb Williams.
Check out our full Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions!
Chargers vs. Rams
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:05 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Analyst: Shawn Krest
Prop pick: Matthew Stafford Under 34 passing attempts
The Rams ran for 201 yards last week, and both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum topped 90 yards. Sean McVay wants to stick with the recent reliance on the ground game, and Matt Stafford has seen his numbers shrink in recent games.
He had four straight 300-yard games and three straight with more than 50 attempts and 30 completions all through mid-October. Since then, his yardage, completions, and attempts have dropped each week, and he went 23 of 29 for 195 against the Raiders.
Check out our full Chargers vs. Rams predictions!
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards
This prop is playable up to 50% because Denver has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, with six QBs scampering for 15 or more yards in five of six games.
Mahomes has also rushed seven times for 30 yards over the past two weeks, and the Broncos topping the league in PFF pass rush grade will have the veteran QB on the move early and often Sunday.
Of course, Mahomes has totaled a healthy 5.75 yards per scramble this season, too.
Check out our full Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions!
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Hunter Henry 40+ receiving yards
Henry's 2026 numbers pop with ranks of fifth in EPA per target and third in catch rate among tight ends, so I recommend this prop up to 42 yards.
I also value that his 6.7 yards after catch per reception and 1.69 yards per route run are his highest marks since joining the Pats.
Maye sports a high-end 117.8 NFL passer rating when targeting Henry, too.
Check out our full Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions!
Eagles vs. Commanders
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 1, 8:20 p.m. ET | TV: NBC | Analyst: Jason Logan
Prop pick: Antonio Williams 30+ receiving yards
Terry McLaurin’s injury has created a vacuum in the Washington pass game, shuffling around the healthy WRs. That’s a commodity the Commies are running short on in Week 8.
On top of McLaurin’s season-ending injury, Stefon Diggs and Treylon Burks are both on the injury report for SNF. That leaves rookie Antonio Williams in a good place, in terms of his work in the offense.
His numbers have been good when Daniels is under center, with his worst yardage performances coming when the QB1 was injured. Head coach Dan Quinn told the media he was thrilled with Williams' development and Football IQ, following a 50-yard outing in Week 6.
Williams has carved out a spot as Washington’s top slot option, playing the inside position on almost half his snaps. That matches up well against Philadelphia, which has struggled to contain slot receivers this season.
Williams caught all four balls his way for 64 yards and a touchdown in his pro debut versus the Eagles in Week 1. His Week 8 projections all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 46+. My number boils down to 37 yards from the Commanders’ first-year receiver.
Check out our full Eagles vs. Commanders predictions!
Bears vs. Seahawks
Kickoff: Monday, Nov. 2, 8:15 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN/ABC | Analyst: Josh Inglis
Prop pick: Caleb Williams Under 225 passing yards
The Seahawks have held opposing quarterbacks under 180 net passing yards in every game this season, allowing an average of just 158 passing yards.
Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, and Brock Purdy all failed to reach 190 passing yards against a Seattle defense that ranks third in EPA per dropback. Those five quarterbacks finished an average of 46 yards below their closing passing totals.
Caleb Williams projects for 216 passing yards, according to Covers' projections powered by THE BLITZ. That's the same output Mahomes managed last week in a losing effort, as the Chiefs failed to reach the red zone even once.
Check out our full Bears vs. Seahawks predictions!
More Week 8 NFL picks
Looking for a different market or a second opinion? These Week 8 roundups offer more expert analysis:
- NFL AI predictions and score projections for Week 8
- Week 8 NFL underdog picks
- Week 8 anytime touchdown value index
- Week 8 NFL touchdown parlay picks
- Week 8 NFL survivor pool expert picks
- NFL Week 8 odds and opening lines
Before kickoff, check the NFL injury report and NFL weather forecast, and compare prices on the NFL matchups board.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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