As we enter the 2025 NFL season, I have a better appreciation for football coaches.
Starting in April and rolling into July, I was coaching not one but two youth football teams: one tackle and one flag.
I spent four days a week (and endless hours in between) assessing talent, teaching fundamentals, scheming to our strengths, and game planning for opponents.
Each practice was carefully curated, and gamedays had me teetering on the edge of an anxious knife, high-stepping the line between vomit and victory.
And that was coaching 10-year-olds. I can’t imagine the level of stress in the pros.
It’s no wonder it only took three seasons for Mike McDaniel to go from fresh-faced wunderkind to a guy who looks like he sells discount mattresses out of a damp storage unit.
But as sure as the “Tush Push” on a third-and-short, that newfound fondness for coaches will fly out the window in Week 1 when money's involved.
One poorly plotted 2-minute drill or a gutless decision on fourth down, leaving my bet short of the spread, and all of that understanding and compassion for coaches gets tossed in the garbage quicker than Micah Parsons’ Cowboys jersey.
Ah, welcome back, football. And welcome back to my weekly NFL Underdogs column!
Here are my best NFL picks and predictions getting the points in Week 1.
Last season: 31-28-1
Last seven seasons: 212-192-4
NFL Week 1 predictions and picks
Dolphins +1.5
Giants +6.5
Lions +2.5
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Best bet: Miami +1.5
(-118 at FanDuel)
Hopefully, you’ve been reading my 2025 NFL betting previews for all 32 teams (shameless plug). If so, you know how I feel about the Miami Dolphins.
This team can make noise – if they stay healthy. The great thing about the Week 1 Dolphins is that this will be the healthiest they’ll be all season.
That means Tua Tagovailoa has all his marbles as well as one of the best receiving duos in the land: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mix in a little De'Von Achane, who is ready for the opener, and that Miami attack packs a punch.
What gets me really excited about the Fins, however, is this defense. Miami has one of the best front sevens in football, with a ton of depth and key contributors returning from an injury-plagued 2024.
Second-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is trying to get this group back to being dangerous. He inherited a stop unit that boasted one of the highest pressure rates, racked up the sacks, and created game-changing takeaways in 2023.
An opponent like the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 is just what the Dolphins desire, especially with Daniel Jones as the QB1 for the opener.
The Colts opted to go with Jones over Anthony Richardson, which says something about the state of QB quality in Indy. Jones played his way out of New York by being unable to throw past the sticks and rating among the worst passers under pressure.
Given that and the fact that there was only one “Conjuring” movie the last time Indianapolis won a Week 1 game (there will be a ninth released this month), it’s no surprise to see this spread slim at many books.
The Dolphins are available at an expensive +1.5, but many operators are down to a pick’em.
New York Giants (+6.5) at Washington Commanders
Best bet: N.Y. Giants +6.5
(-118 at FanDuel)
With Week 1 spreads holding a lot of weight from last year, teams are never as bad or as good as they seem. That could be why Week 1 has been very kind to big underdogs in recent seasons.
Last September, underdogs of +6.5 or higher went 3-0 ATS in Week 1, improving those pudgy pups to 10-3 ATS the past four years.
The New York Giants actually opened higher, coming out at +7.5 when Week 1 odds hit the board back in May.
Most years, those long-running Week 1 markets will, barring an injury or trade, gradually move toward the favorite over the course of the summer. But New York has drawn money from early-bird bettors, pushing this spread through the touchdown. In fact, this spread is as low as +5.5 at some shops.
That line movement begs the question: What’s different about the Giants in 2025?
Well, for one, the aforementioned Jones isn’t under center. That’s a good start. Replacing him is QB1 Russell Wilson and QB2 Jameis Winston – a veteran pairing that instantly gives the Giants an arm that can throw the ball more than 15 yards.
The pass rush is another feather in Big Blue's cap. New York trots out a very aggressive front seven featuring sack masters Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence II, and rookie Abdul Carter.
Both improvements – quarterback and pass rush – will cook up the “big plays” that eluded the G-Men in 2024. Big plays plus big spread equals a dog with bite in Week 1.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Best bet: Detroit +2.5
(-110 at bet365)
Overreactions are usually reserved for Week 2 betting; however, we get a knee-jerk move on the spread for this NFC North showdown in Week 1.
The Green Bay Packers jumped from -1.5 to -2.5 after landing stud pass rusher Micah Parsons last week. Parsons is a game-wrecking talent (I know, I’m a Cowboys fan), but he’s not worth a full point to the spread.
In my 21 years covering the NFL with Covers.com, there have been a handful of defensive players worth an adjustment to the spread – not just juggling the juice but moving the line up or down.
In their primes, guys like Aaron Donald, T.J. and J.J. Watt, Luke Kuechly, Von Miller, and Myles Garrett had oddsmakers pegging their point value at half a point. Now, this is before the bettors have a say and move the line based on action.
Yet, books instantly upped Green Bay from -1.5 to -2.5 vs. the Detroit Lions the second the Parsons trade made landfall. Action be damned.
I’ll gladly take the extra padding with the Lions, who have a negative public perception hanging over their heads after the departure of both coordinators.
Detroit remains one of the best two-way teams in the NFL, especially since half the defensive depth chart isn’t watching from the sidelines. Even with Aaron Glenn gonezo, this stop unit will remain aggressive under new DC Kelvin Sheppard.
Green Bay QB Jordan Love struggled against the Lions’ D last year, posting one of his lowest opponent passer ratings in two games with Detroit. He comes into 2025 behind schedule due to thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand, which held him back in camp.
Love struggled against man coverage last year, something Detroit runs at a very high rate, and his PFF rating plummeted under pressure/blitzes. You can be sure the Lions will unleash hell in Week 1. The Packers' offensive line has been shuffled around and may have reason for concern with new center Elgton Jenkins sitting out Monday's practice.
Dan Campbell’s crew isn’t getting points very often since running to the top of the NFC, but makes the most of those rare spots. The Lions are 11-4 ATS as underdogs the past three regular seasons.
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