The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will get right to work defending their NFC South crown in Week 1 when they take on the upstart Atlanta Falcons down in Georgia. Both teams will be hoping to get more out of their respective defenses, but offense may be on the menu to start the season.
My Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions will explain why both sides should have opportunities to move the football and tap into the excellent talent surrounding two exciting quarterbacks.
Read below for my free NFL picks for Sunday, September 7.
Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction
Buccaneers vs Falcons Best bet: Over 47.5 (-102)
This will be a game between two undeniable offenses, and while both have the capacity to run the football quite well, I don’t think that means we’ll get a slow, low-scoring affair.
Atlanta’s defense fell flat a season ago, particularly in the secondary, where it finished 27th in DVOA against the pass, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers checked in fifth in offensive DVOA through the air.
Baker Mayfield should be tasked with breaking this game open for the Buccaneers, and even with Chris Godwin injured talented options are abundant in the passing game. He won’t have the injured Tristian Wirfs to protect him, but it may not matter so much against a Falcons team that struggled to rush the passer a year ago and whose defensive line ranks 30th according to Pro Football Focus.
I suspect we should see plenty of passing from Tampa Bay in a soft matchup, and on the flip side, there’s no slowing down this Falcons offense, which averaged a hefty 7.7 yards per pass a year ago and should only grow stronger with Michael Penix, Jr. coming off his first training camp with the starters. Both secondaries are weak, both quarterbacks are explosive, and with that, there’s no shying away from the Over.
Buccaneers vs Falcons same-game parlay
We’ll attack the Buccaneers’ secondary for a moment, one that ranked 23rd in DVOA against the pass a season ago. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I do like Kyle Pitts quite a bit — coming up against a team which allowed the second-most yards to the tight end position a year ago. We know he has big play ability even with a bad season, and now the matchup is right.
I also like Cade Otton here, because Mayfield likes him. He was a heavily-targeted player last year, averaging seven per game from Week 3 onward, and Atlanta lacks the talent at linebacker to cover him. He amassed over 120 yards in two games between these teams in 2024.
Buccaneers vs Falcons 3-leg SGP
- Over 47.5
- Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
- Cade Otton Over 3.5 Receptions
Our big-ticket SGP: Bucs rack up the points
- Atlanta did allow 13 red zone targets to opposing tight ends a year ago — the 10th most in the league — and if you can guess from our final leg I suspect we’ll see a number of scoring plays through the air for Tampa.
- Mayfield went crazy against Atlanta last year, throwing for three touchdowns in each meeting, and there’s nothing suggesting this secondary is any better.
Buccaneers vs Falcons 5-leg SGP
- Over 47.5
- Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
- Cade Otton Over 3.5 Receptions
- Cade Otton anytime TD
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Buccaneers vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Buccaneers -1.5 | Falcons +1.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -120 | Falcons +110
- Over/Under: Over 49 | Under 49
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Buccaneers vs Falcons trend to know
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Falcons
| Location | Stadium, City, State |
| Date | Sunday, September-XX, 2024 |
| Kickoff | X:XX p.m. ET |
| TV | [NETWORK] |
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