Super Bowl Odds: Chiefs Favored, Bucs Creating Big Liability


Patrick Everson
Clock Icon Apr 9, 2021 - 2:30 PM ET

Super Bowl odds, and for that matter all things NFL betting, are so big that they can even grab headlines in April. The offseason has already seen significant free-agent splashes, most notably early on from the New England Patriots, along with speculation based on the NFL Draft, set for April 29-May 1. 

But at BetMGM Nevada, it's the previous Super Bowl that seems to be most influencing bettors, as the seasons shift from winter to spring. Specifically, the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are creating liability behind the counter.

Here's a closer look at the current state of Super Bowl betting odds.

2022 Super Bowl odds: Can the Buccaneers repeat?

Early bettors certainly seem to think so, according to BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened +1,200 after their big Super Bowl win over Kansas City and are the +800 second choice as of April 9.

"We're already a big loser to the Buccaneers. They're our biggest loser, and it's not even close," Shelton said of the position for BetMGM's books up and down Las Vegas Boulevard. "We took a $25,000 bet at +800 and a $50,000 bet at +900. Most of the damage is at 8/1 and 9/1. What's not to love, except for a quarterback who's gonna be 44? But he looked OK last season!"

Team Odds to win Super Bowl 56 (as of April 9)
Kansas City Chiefs +450
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
Green Bay Packers +1,200
Baltimore Ravens +1,200
Buffalo Bills +1,200
Los Angeles Rams +1,200
San Francisco 49ers +1,400
Indianapolis Colts +2,000
Cleveland Browns +2,000
New Orleans Saints +2,500
Miami Dolphins +2,500
Dallas Cowboys +2,500
New England Patriots +2,500
Arizona Cardinals +2,500
Seattle Seahawks +3,000
Tennessee Titans +3,000
Los Angeles Chargers +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers +5,000
Minnesota Vikings +5,000
Chicago Bears +5,000
Carolina Panthers +5,000
Las Vegas Raiders +6,600
Denver Broncos +6,600
Washington Football Team +6,600
Philadelphia Eagles +8,000
New York Jets +8,000
Atlanta Falcons +10,000
New York Giants +10,000
Cincinnati Bengals +10,000
Jacksonville Jaguars +12,500
Detroit Lions +15,000
Houston Texans +20,000

Odds courtesy BetMGM

Per usual, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are atop the Super Bowl odds board at BetMGM Nevada, now at +450 after opening +600 following their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers. Then there's Tampa Bay, followed by a pack of teams at +1,200: the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers.

"We're a massive loser to the Bucs, a small loser to the Chiefs, a small loser to the Rams," Shelton said, pointing to the Rams' big offseason move, trading QB Jared Goff to Detroit for Matthew Stafford. "The Rams opened +2,000, got as low as +1,000 after the Stafford trade and are now +1,200. We took a $9,000 bet on the Rams +2,000, to win $180,000."

Shelton said BetMGM's Nevada shops are a "decent-sized loser" to the Las Vegas Raiders, largely due to hometown/regional bias. That said, the Raiders can still be had at +6,600.

"We're good to every other team. Among teams considered contenders, the Ravens are probably our best outcome," Shelton said, before moving on to the New Orleans Saints, whose longtime star QB Drew Brees retired. "The second-best outcome is the Saints. They dropped from +1,800 to +2,500. The Packers and Titans aren't far behind. The Colts are really good, the Dolphins really good."

The Colts are +2,000, the Dolphins +2,500 and the Titans +3,000.

The New York Jets' recent trade of QB Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers didn't do much to either team's prospects for next season. The Jets are +10,000 (100/1) and the Panthers +5,000.

Super Bowl betting line

The betting lines for the Super Bowl come out as soon as the AFC and NFC champs are determined and then take on a ton of money as the Super Bowl is the single most-bet game in the World.

Spread

The Chiefs opened as -3.5 favorites on the point spread in Super Bowl 55,+ but early money came in on Tampa Bay, pushing the line to -3, where it eventually closed. The Bucs went on to cover the spread with ease in their 31-9 victory. 

Over/Under

The Over/Under total for Super Bowl LV opened at 57 but got bet down to 56 or even 55.5 at some betting sites by kickoff. The Under ended up hitting with 40 total points, as the two teams combined for just 13 second-half points.

Moneyline

The opening moneyline odds for Super Bowl 55 were Kansas City -180 and Tampa Bay +160. By kickoff, the odds had shifted towards Tampa Bay, with the Chiefs closing at -155 and the Buccaneers at +145. Tampa Bay, of course, won outright and therefore won on the moneyline.

Early line movement

Those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and they’ve been right more often than they’ve been wrong in recent years. 

Over the last 14 Super Bowls, the early money has been on the right side on 11 occasions (with one game resulting in a push). 

Super Bowl Teams Opening Spread Early Move Closing Spread Early Money ATS
55
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
Chiefs -3.5 Chiefs  -3 Chiefs -3
(Bucs) Win
54 Chiefs vs 49ers Pick'em Chiefs -1 Chiefs -1.5  (Chiefs) Win
53 Patriots vs. Rams Patriots -1.5 Patriots -2 Patriots -2.5 (Patriots) Win
52 Patriots vs. Eagles Patriots -5.5 Patriots -3.5 Patriots -4.5 (Eagles) Win
51 Patriots vs. Falcons Patriots -3 Patriots -3 (-120) Patriots -3 (Patriots) Win
50 Broncos vs. Panthers Panthers -3.5 Panthers -4.5 Panthers -4.5 (Panthers) Loss
49 Patriots vs. Seahawks Patriots -1 No move Patriots -1 Draw
48 Broncos vs. Seahawks Pick'em Seahawks -1 Seahawks -1.5 (Seahawks) Win
47 49ers vs. Ravens 49ers -4 49ers -3.5 49ers -4.5 (Ravens) Win
46 Patriots vs. Giants Patriots -3.5 Patriots -3 Patriots -3 (Giants) Win
45 Packers vs. Steelers Packers -2 Packers -3 Packers -3 (Packers) Win
44 Colts vs. Saints Colts -3.5 Colts -6 Colts -4.5 (Colts) Loss
43 Steelers vs. Cardinals Steelers -6.5 Steelers -5.5 Steelers -6.5 (Cardinals) Win
42 Patriots vs. Giants Patriots -13 Patriots -11.5 Patriots -11.5 (Giants) Win

How to read Super Bowl odds

Sportsbooks release NFL futures odds pretty much as soon the confetti is falling to mark the end of the previous football season. There are many ways to wager on NFL futures, but picking the outright winner of the Super Bowl is definitely the most popular. During the offseason and preseason, you'll be able to get a nice plus-money price on basically any team in the NFL, as there is so much uncertainty around what will happen next year.

Super Bowl Futures odds will usually look like this:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +160

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $160 should Brady win again. As Kansas City is the favorite, you will see a minus sign (-) ahead of its odds. 

  • Kansas City Chiefs -180

This means that if you wagered on the Chiefs at that price, you would need to bet $180 to profit $100 on Mahomes & Co. pulling off the repeat.

Of course, futures odds are a fluid market. They can change every day based on news, injuries, trades, etc. And they will certainly change based around big NFL events, such as free agency and the draft. For example, a devastating injury to a starting quarterback on any of the top teams in the league would likely cause them to plummet down the futures odds board.

All the odds seen above are in American format. Should you find decimal format or fractional format easier to read, simply convert the odds using our simple odds converter tool.

Which betting site has the best odds on the Super Bowl?

When it comes to looking for odds on Super Bowl betting sites, you’ll notice that the price on futures can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. That’s why it is crucial to do some line shopping, and our NFL futures odds tool can help with that. You don’t want to leave money on the table when making Super Bowl bets, or any kind of futures bets, for that matter.

Instant replay: Super Bowl odds

Everyone plays favorites, whether they care to admit it or not, and Super Bowl oddsmakers are no exception. We're now looking ahead to the 2022 season, where every team again has a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

  • The Kansas City Chiefs opened as favorites to win Super Bowl 56.
  • The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen their odds shorten slightly since the opening number.
  • Shop around: Our NFL futures odds tool can help you find the best odds.

Super Bowl Odds FAQs

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