Super Bowl Odds: Rodgers Reports Shake Up Suitors' Odds


Patrick Everson
Clock Icon May 7, 2021 - 2:00 PM ET

Super Bowl odds, and for that matter all things NFL betting, are so big that they can even grab headlines in late April/early May. Of course, the NFL Draft taking place in that window certainly helps jump-start action on the odds to win the Super Bowl.

What also helps? Reports of superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay. Between that and adjustments from the draft, Super Bowl futures odds are seeing some changes.

Here's a closer look at the current state of Super Bowl betting odds, through May 7.

2022 Super Bowl odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Super Bowl odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Literally hours before the NFL Draft's first round opened on April 30, news broke that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was less than happy with his current situation and wanted out. That was followed on May 1 with reports that Rodgers either wanted a trade or wanted GM Brian Gutekunst booted from Green Bay.

While Rodgers seemed to enjoy himself at the May 1 Kentucky Derby, oddsmakers were working on their Super Bowl odds calculus. Initially, the Packers' odds didn't moved much at PointsBet USA, dipping from +1,000 to +1,100. But what about potential Rodgers suitors?

"We are mainly protecting potential landing spots for Rodgers, which include the 49ers and Broncos," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn told Covers. "The 49ers shifted from +1,500 to +1,200 and the Broncos from +6,000 to +1,800. The Broncos would become automatic title contenders with the addition of the Hall of Fame QB."

By May 7, the Broncos fell back slightly to +2,200, the 49ers dipped a tick to +1,300, and interestingly, the Packers adjusted to +1,800.

The SuperBook at Westgate made a similarly significant move on the Broncos, from +6,000 to +2,000. A couple of customers beat oddsmakers to the punch.

"There were a few small tickets at 60/1 as the (Rodgers) news was leaking out," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. All that said, the Broncos dialed back to +3,000 by May 1 and were +4,000 May 7, with SuperBook oddsmakers less convinced of Denver as Rodgers' destination.

Meanwhile, the NFL Draft impacted some odds as well, starting with interest in the Jacksonville Jaguars after they officially took Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1-overall pick.

"The Jags opened up at +10,000 (100/1) to win the Super Bowl. After drafting Lawrence, combined with a steady amount of action coming in, we shifted the Jags' odds into +8,000," PointsBet's Korn said. "The Jags currently represent our fourth-highest liability for the Super Bowl."

The Chicago Bears were another noteworthy mover, impacted by their draft moves and by the prospect of Rodgers leaving the Packers.

"When we heard news of Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay, combined with the Bears drafting Justin Fields, we shifted the Bears from +5,500 into +4,000," Korn said. "That has since settled back at +4,500. The Bears currently represent our highest Super Bowl liability."

Last season's Super Bowl participants remain atop PointsBet's odds board, with the Kansas City Chiefs the +475 favorite and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers the +600 second choice. Both teams have seen their odds improve from the opening prices of K.C. +600 and Tampa +1,200, and in fact, the Bucs are at their shortest price of the offseason. No surprise, both teams are popular futures plays.

"While the Chiefs and Bucs represent the highest bet count — Chiefs No. 1, Bucs No. 2 — in the Super Bowl market, either team winning would actually be a slightly positive result for the book. Not one of the best results, but not one of the worst," Korn said.

PointsBet's largest liability among teams considered contenders is with the Los Angeles Rams (+1,200), who in mid-March acquired Matt Stafford from Detroit in exchange for Jared Goff. Among contending teams PointsBet is rooting for are the Buffalo Bills, currently the +1,100 co-third choice, and the Baltimore Ravens, the +1,600 co-sixth choice.

And then there's a team not normally known for flying under the Super Bowl odds radar, but in this case doing just that.

"The Patriots (+2,800) are quietly developing into one of our biggest liabilities," Korn said. "The Pats have been extremely busy/aggressive in the offseason with their moves, so we’ll see if Bill Belichick can take the Pats deep into the playoffs without Tom Brady. Drafting Mac Jones seemed to excite bettors as well, although it seems Cam Newton will still start."

Super Bowl betting line

The betting lines for the Super Bowl come out as soon as the AFC and NFC champs are determined and then take on a ton of money as the Super Bowl is the single most-bet game in the World.

Spread

The Chiefs opened as -3.5 favorites on the point spread in Super Bowl 55,+ but early money came in on Tampa Bay, pushing the line to -3, where it eventually closed. The Bucs went on to cover the spread with ease in their 31-9 victory. 

Over/Under

The Over/Under total for Super Bowl LV opened at 57 but got bet down to 56 or even 55.5 at some betting sites by kickoff. The Under ended up hitting with 40 total points, as the two teams combined for just 13 second-half points.

Moneyline

The opening moneyline odds for Super Bowl 55 were Kansas City -180 and Tampa Bay +160. By kickoff, the odds had shifted towards Tampa Bay, with the Chiefs closing at -155 and the Buccaneers at +145. Tampa Bay, of course, won outright and therefore won on the moneyline.

Early line movement

Those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and they’ve been right more often than they’ve been wrong in recent years. 

Over the last 14 Super Bowls, the early money has been on the right side on 11 occasions (with one game resulting in a push). 

Super Bowl Teams Opening Spread Early Move Closing Spread Early Money ATS
55
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
Chiefs -3.5 Chiefs  -3 Chiefs -3
(Bucs) Win
54 Chiefs vs 49ers Pick'em Chiefs -1 Chiefs -1.5  (Chiefs) Win
53 Patriots vs. Rams Patriots -1.5 Patriots -2 Patriots -2.5 (Patriots) Win
52 Patriots vs. Eagles Patriots -5.5 Patriots -3.5 Patriots -4.5 (Eagles) Win
51 Patriots vs. Falcons Patriots -3 Patriots -3 (-120) Patriots -3 (Patriots) Win
50 Broncos vs. Panthers Panthers -3.5 Panthers -4.5 Panthers -4.5 (Panthers) Loss
49 Patriots vs. Seahawks Patriots -1 No move Patriots -1 Draw
48 Broncos vs. Seahawks Pick'em Seahawks -1 Seahawks -1.5 (Seahawks) Win
47 49ers vs. Ravens 49ers -4 49ers -3.5 49ers -4.5 (Ravens) Win
46 Patriots vs. Giants Patriots -3.5 Patriots -3 Patriots -3 (Giants) Win
45 Packers vs. Steelers Packers -2 Packers -3 Packers -3 (Packers) Win
44 Colts vs. Saints Colts -3.5 Colts -6 Colts -4.5 (Colts) Loss
43 Steelers vs. Cardinals Steelers -6.5 Steelers -5.5 Steelers -6.5 (Cardinals) Win
42 Patriots vs. Giants Patriots -13 Patriots -11.5 Patriots -11.5 (Giants) Win

How to read Super Bowl odds

Sportsbooks release NFL futures odds pretty much as soon the confetti is falling to mark the end of the previous football season. There are many ways to wager on NFL futures, but picking the outright winner of the Super Bowl is definitely the most popular. During the offseason and preseason, you'll be able to get a nice plus-money price on basically any team in the NFL, as there is so much uncertainty around what will happen next year.

Super Bowl Futures odds will usually look like this:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +160

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $160 should Brady win again. As Kansas City is the favorite, you will see a minus sign (-) ahead of its odds. 

  • Kansas City Chiefs -180

This means that if you wagered on the Chiefs at that price, you would need to bet $180 to profit $100 on Mahomes & Co. pulling off the repeat.

Of course, futures odds are a fluid market. They can change every day based on news, injuries, trades, etc. And they will certainly change based around big NFL events, such as free agency and the draft. For example, a devastating injury to a starting quarterback on any of the top teams in the league would likely cause them to plummet down the futures odds board.

All the odds seen above are in American format. Should you find decimal format or fractional format easier to read, simply convert the odds using our simple odds converter tool.

Which betting site has the best odds on the Super Bowl?

When it comes to looking for odds on Super Bowl betting sites, you’ll notice that the price on futures can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. That’s why it is crucial to do some line shopping, and our NFL futures odds tool can help with that. You don’t want to leave money on the table when making Super Bowl bets, or any kind of futures bets, for that matter.

Instant replay: Super Bowl odds

Everyone plays favorites, whether they care to admit it or not, and Super Bowl oddsmakers are no exception. We're now looking ahead to the 2022 season, where every team again has a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

  • The Kansas City Chiefs opened as favorites to win Super Bowl 56.
  • The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen their odds shorten since the opening number.
  • Shop around: Our NFL futures odds tool can help you find the best odds.

Super Bowl Odds FAQs

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