The Detroit Lions head to historic Lambeau Field for a Week 1 showdown against the Green Bay Packers.
The league is buzzing about Green Bay's blockbuster trade for Micah Parsons, but my Lions vs. Packers predictions are backing an offensive playmaker on the other side in Jahmyr Gibbs.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this division battle on Sunday, September 7.
Lions vs Packers prediction
Lions vs Packers Best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 receiving yards (-122)
The Detroit Lions led the NFL in scoring last year, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs was a big part of that prolific offense. Gibbs rushed for 1,412 yards while adding another 517 yards on 52 receptions.
His pass-catching ability was on full display down the stretch, with Gibbs hauling in at least four receptions with 30+ receiving yards in each of his last six games.
Gibbs could be even more involved in the passing game this year under new offensive coordinator John Morton, who likes to throw the ball more than the departed Ben Johnson.
The Pro Bowl RB said that he had to learn the wide positions during offseason practices. "I gotta learn the formations for being split out," Gibbs said, via WXYT Detroit. "I'm being split out like way more than I was the past two years."
The Green Bay Packers struggled to defend pass-catching backs in 2024. They were 30th in the league in receptions (91) and receiving yards (686) allowed to the position.
The Packers pulled off a massive trade for Micah Parsons last week, but an improved pass rush means that Detroit will rely even more on quick passes to outlet receiving options like Gibbs.
Lions vs Packers same-game parlay
Oddsmakers seem to be undervaluing the Lions, who went 15-2 with an NFL-best average scoring margin of +13.1 ppg last year.
Sure they lost Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, but most of their key players have returned. In fact, their defense should be significantly better since superstar end Aidan Hutchinson is healthy after missing most of last season.
The Packers don't have as many weapons on offense and might not get a big impact from Parsons in Week 1 since he's hindered by a back injury and needs to adjust to a new system. That's enough for me to back Detroit at plus money.
If Gibbs goes Over his receiving yards total, he's almost certain to eclipse 2.5 receptions as well. Gibbs scored 22 touchdowns last year and has found the end zone in 11 of his last 13 games.
Since I'm already backing him to have a big impact in a high-scoring win, it makes sense to add his anytime TD prop.
Lions vs. Packers 4-leg SGP
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 receiving yards
- Lions moneyline
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 2.5 receptions
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD
Our big-ticket SGP: Golden goes long
The Packers defense came up with splashy plays last year but ranked 21st in success rate and just 28th in dropback success rate. Their young corners will struggle to contain the Lions aerial attack.
Detroit's corners also have a tendency to get burned and Green Bay finally has a deep threat in blazing fast rookie Matthew Golden, who should thrive with Jordan Love throwing him the ball.
Lions vs. Packers 6-leg SGP
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 receiving yards
- Lions moneyline
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 2.5 receptions
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD
- Over 47.5
- Matthew Golden longest reception Over 20.5 yards
Lions vs Packers game predictions
Lions vs Packers moneyline prediction
Being able to grab a Super Bowl contender at plus money in Week 1 seems like a gift. Especially since the Lions are healthy and facing a rival that they've beaten in six of their last seven meetings.
Lions vs Packers spread prediction
The spread was at -1.5 before the Packers traded for Parsons last week. The addition of the All-Pro pass rusher has moved Green Bay to -2.5, but books have been hesitant to go to that key number of 3.
Even with the coaching turnover in Detroit, I can't turn down catching points with a team this talented. Especially since they've been an ATS darling during the Dan Campbell era, going 38-17 ATS since 2022 and covering in five of their last seven games against the Packers.
Lions vs Packers Over/Under prediction
The Lions have question marks at cornerback, where they've been burned through the air. Jordan Love should be able to take advantage of that, but I don't see Green Bay's defense keeping Detroit's highly-efficient offense in check — even if Parsons plays well.
Three of the last four games between these NFC North rivals have seen more than 50 points hung on the board, and I'm expecting another high-scoring game here.
Lions vs Packers odds
- Spread: Lions +1.5 | Packers -1.5
- Moneyline: Lions +105 | Packers -125
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Lions vs Packers trend to know
The Lions have won nine straight games on the road (+9.05 Units / 49% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Packers.
How to watch Lions vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date | Sunday, September 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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