The first shortened week of the NFL season comes in Week 5 with four teams on a bye.
Despite the 14-game slate, there are plenty of intriguing spots to tackle as I break down my NFL picks against the spread for Week 5 action.
Week 5 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 49ers vs  Rams |
(-5.5) |
 Vikings vs  Browns |
(+3.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Jets |
(-2.5) |
 Broncos vs  Eagles |
(+4.5) |
 Texans vs  Ravens |
(-1.5) |
 Giants vs  Saints |
(+1.5) |
 Raiders vs  Colts |
(+6.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Panthers |
(+1.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Seahawks |
(+3) |
 Titans vs  Cardinals |
(-8.5) |
 Commanders vs  Chargers |
(-2.5) |
 Lions vs  Bengals |
(+9.5) |
 Patriots vs  Bills |
(-8.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Jaguars |
(-3) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
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Expert Week 5 NFL picks against the spread
49ers vs. Rams: Rams (-5.5)
The Rams were fortunate to beat the Colts in Week 4, and now have a quick turnaround in a divisional matchup. I believe they're in a better spot, given they are the healthier of the two teams.
Vikings vs. Browns: Browns (+3.5)
I don't really trust Carson Wentz. I know Joe Flacco is not a better option, but I think the Cleveland defense can be the difference maker in this ball game. Sign me up with the hook.
Cowboys vs. Jets: Cowboys (-2.5)
Dak Prescott is better than Justin Fields. Both defenses stink, but the Cowboys have more playmakers and a better head coach.
Broncos vs. Eagles: Broncos (+4.5)
I believe the Eagles are due for a bit of a letdown, and I think it comes here. The Broncos offense has playmakers, and Bo Nix could pick apart the secondary given time in the pocket.
Texans vs. Ravens: Texans (-1.5)
No Lamar, no party for the Ravens as they've got some serious concerns heading into Sunday. Not only are they down their starting QB, but injuries are piling up on the defensive side of the ball. The Texans can make them pay.
Giants vs. Saints: Giants (+1.5)
Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo > Spencer Rattler and Alvin Kamara.
Raiders vs. Colts: Raiders (+6.5)
Both teams lost very winnable games last week, so naturally, we will take as many points as possible here. The Raiders offense can trouble the Colts' secondary and keep this one inside the number.
Dolphins vs. Panthers: Panthers (+1.5)
The Dolphins may have beaten the Jets last week, but they lost Tyreek Hill in the process. Now, I know Hill is past his prime, but I don't think they're good enough to go on the road and come away with a win — even if they are playing the Panthers.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: Buccaneers (+3)
After a sluggish start, the Buccaneers outscored the Eagles 19-7 and simply ran out of time in their quest to complete the comeback. This week, I think they're the better of the two sides, and catching a field goal vs. an inconsistent Seahawks offense is a good buy point.
Titans vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (-8.5)
If the starting quarterback says "we are ass", then you most certainly are. I'll take the Cardinals in a bounce-back spot after Marvin Harrison remembered how to catch.
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Commanders vs. Chargers: Chargers (-2.5)
The Commanders' chances of winning this game hinge on the health and effectiveness of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Either way, I think the Chargers bounce back and carve up a bad Commanders secondary.
Lions vs. Bengals: Bengals (+9.5)
Everything about this game screams 'take the Lions.' But I'm not listening. The Bengals will do just enough to sneak in the back door vs. a Lions offense that's feeling itself a little too much right now.
Patriots vs. Bills: Bills (-8.5)
Division matchup or not, the Bills' offense is on another planet. They've scored 30+ in all four games this year, and the Patriots are not built to win shootouts.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Chiefs (-3)
The Kansas City Chiefs' fall was greatly exaggerated. This is a team with plenty of playmakers and a great quarterback. Laying less than a field goal should be a piece of cake for them against the Jaguars.
My NFL ATS record is 37-27 this season for +7.6 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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