I'm looking at a trio of would-be first-time major winners with my PGA Championship long-shot predictions, and I think Aronimink Golf Club is the perfect place for Jake Knapp, Chris Gotterup, or Min Woo Lee to break through.
Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa., hosts the PGA Championship for the first time since 1962. The new-look major venue helps level the playing field this week. While Scottie Scheffler is the favorite by the latest PGA Championship odds with a 16% win probability, I'm looking at three outright picks with odds between +6600 and +8000.
After a recent run of major dominance from Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, this is the week to target sleeper picks and hit on a big payday.
🎯 Best PGA Championship long shots
| Golfer |  |
Reason |
|---|---|---|
 Jake Knapp |
+6600 | Fifth in field in driving distance over last 16 rounds |
 Chris Gotterup |
+7000 | Two-time winner in 2026, with driving distance and hot putter |
| Min Woo Lee | +8000 | Back-to-back top-20 finishes in Signature Events, but odds lengthened |
Picks made on May 10 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
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🔍 What I'm looking for in PGA Championship long shots
I consider this to be one of the best weeks for a long-shot major winner in recent memory.
Aronimink Golf Club hasn't hosted the PGA Championship — or any other PGA Tour event — since 1962. That lack of familiarity for the entire 156-man field helps to level the playing field this week. While Scottie Scheffler has a 16% win probability, no other player tops 9%. Only two golfers have outright odds shorter than +1000 at BetMGM this week.
A lackluster weekend leaderboard in the Truist Championship Signature Event further helps our cause in looking for sleeper picks this week. But we're still staying away from the true dark-horse contenders, like Kristoffer Reitan, Rickie Fowler, and Alex Fitzpatrick.
Key stats
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee (distance > accuracy)
- Strokes gained: approach
- Par-4 efficiency
- Bogey avoidance
💤 PGA Championship sleeper picks
Best long-shot bet: Chris Gotterup (+7000 at BetMGM)
Chris Gotterup enters this week 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but he's 32nd on the oddsboard for the outright winner market at BetMGM. The value is hard to ignore.
- Course fit: Long hitter and efficient par-4 scorer
- Recent form: Two PGA Tour wins this season, and a solid T24 finish in his Masters debut
- Key stat: 1.12 strokes gained: putting per round during the Truist Championship
Sleeper pick 2: Jake Knapp (+6600 at BetMGM)
Has soared from No. 105 to No. 39 in the OWGR this calendar year.
- Course fit: Excellent par-4 scorer, who's long off the tee and averaging 0.70 SG: approach over his past 16 rounds
- Recent form: 11th in the Masters, and two top-10 finishes in Signature Events this year
- Key stat: 11th in PGA Tour par-4 scoring average this season
Sleeper pick 3: Min Woo Lee (+8000 at BetMGM)
Missed the cut in the Masters but has rebounded with back-to-back top-20 finishes in Signature Events.
- Course fit: 18th in scrambling percentage this season — key for an unfamiliar course
- Recent form: 1.05 SG: off-the-tee per round during the Truist Championship
- Key stat: 26th or better on Tour in bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring
📜 Recent PGA Championship long-shot winners
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (+25000)
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (+12500)
- 2011: Keegan Bradley (+15000)
- 2010: Martin Kaymer (+4000)
- 2009: Y.E. Yang (+12500)
Odds via Sports Odds History prior to Round 1 of the tournament year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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