The injury-plagued Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans in NFL action on Sunday. Lookahead lines had Baltimore installed as a 9.5-point favorite but with Lamar Jackson and multiple starters sidelined, the spread has swung to favor Houston at -1.5.
The best number is long gone but my Texans vs. Ravens predictions are still backing the visitors on the spread.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 5 clash on October 5.
Texans vs Ravens prediction
Texans vs Ravens Best bet: Texans -1.5 (-115)
The Baltimore Ravens are 1-3 after getting throttled by the Chiefs last week, and that slide could continue with injuries piling up on both sides of the ball. They'll be without superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson for 2-3 weeks while Pro Bowl left tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable.
With Cooper Rush under center, the Ravens won't be able to move the ball against a Houston Texans squad that allows a league-low 12.8 points per game and ranks seventh in defensive EPA.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are 29th in defensive EPA and could be even worse this week with key injuries at all three levels.
Starting defensive tackles Broderick Washington and Nnamdi Madubuike are on the IR. Pro Bowl MLB Roquan Smith and starting CBs Marlon Humphrey and Chidobie Awuzie have been ruled out while All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and OLB Odafe Oweh are questionable.
Houston's stagnant run game finally got going last week with rookie Woody Marks, which should open things up for C.J. Stroud and the passing attack.
Texans vs Ravens same-game parlay
Rush doesn't have anywhere near as much mobility or arm strength as Jackson. That said, he's a pocket passer who does a decent job of throwing quick passes on short and intermediate routes.
Rush threw for more than 180 yards in six of eight starts with Dallas last year. The only two games where he went below that number came against the Eagles top-rated pass defense and he threw for 354 yards in a loss to the Texans.
Nico Collins racked up 1,209 receiving yards in 14 regular-season and playoff games last season. He got off to a slow start this year but broke out with eight catches for 104 yards in Week 3 before logging 79 receiving yards last week.
With the Ravens missing their two best corners, and possibly their All-Pro safety as well, Collins should find himself in some favorable matchups.
Texans vs Ravens SGP
- Texans -1.5
- Cooper Rush Over 171. passing yards
- Nico Collins Over 72.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Woody Makes His Mark!
Marks has earned himself more snaps in the red zone after racking up 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21 touches last week.
Texans vs Ravens SGP
- Texans -1.5
- Cooper Rush Over 171.5 passing yards
- Nico Collins Over 72.5 receiving yards
- Woody Marks anytime TD
Texans vs Ravens odds
- Spread: Texans -1.5 (-115) | Ravens +1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Texans -132 | Ravens +112
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 | Under 40.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Ravens trend to know
The Texans have covered the first half spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.75 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Ravens.
How to watch Texans vs Ravens
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
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