Orchard Park is known for its “whiteouts”. But at the beginning of October?
We’re still a couple of months away from winter weather, so the Buffalo Bills are staging their own storm against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
Not only is the home team debuting its slick “Cold Front” uniforms, but the crowd at Highmark Stadium will be wearing all white and waving “Bring the Storm!” towels for this AFC East rivalry.
My Patriots vs. Bills prediction banks on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to bring a storm of touchdown passes with my best NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Patriots vs Bills prediction
Patriots vs Bills Best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-148)
The Buffalo Bills haven’t had to sweat too much over the past three weeks, blowing away that trio of opponents by a combined score of 92-50.
Quarterback Josh Allen hasn’t been pushed much either, with his passing production giving way to the Buffalo ground game as the team chews up time and possession in the second half.
Sunday night’s matchup with the rival New England Patriots will be the Bills’ stiffest test since that wild comeback against Baltimore in Week 1. New England is 2-2, but those losses came in one-possession games, and the Pats are riding high off a thumping of Carolina last Sunday.
The Patriots' defense also poses a big threat to the Bills’ rushing attack. New England is No. 5 in run stop win rate at ESPN and ranks No. 7 in EPA allowed per handoff through four games.
New England has had issues slowing foes through the air, though. It’s allowed the second-most passing plays of 20 or more yards and rates among the worst teams in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass.
Those metrics are poor despite a slate of so-so rival quarterbacks for the Pats, who have given up an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. Allen is a massive step up for Mike Vrabel’s defense.
Allen has completed 16 of 24 pass attempts in the red zone for five TDs, and Joe Brady’s “everyone eats” philosophy has seen five different targets record double figures in receptions, with four different players catching at least one touchdown.
Even with the Bills not needing No. 17 to carry the team in recent weeks, he’s still thrown for two or more touchdowns in three of the first four games. Week 5 forecasts are leaning toward another two-TD effort, with a few models on the other side of 2.0 touchdown passes.
Patriots vs Bills SNF same-game parlay
Allen’s projections are leaning toward two touchdown throws against a poor Patriots’ pass defense.
Palmer does his best work against man coverage, which is something New England runs almost exclusively.
With Orchard Park rocking, the Bills keep their undefeated run alive in Week 5.
Patriots vs Bills SGP
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Joshua Palmer anytime touchdown
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Bills air it out
Allen has thrown two or more TDS in three of four games. Henry is Drake Maye’s safety blanket. I like him to have four grabs. Palmer is tied for the team high in RZ targets (4) among Bills WRs. Buffalo has lost only one divisional home game since 2020.
Patriots vs Bills SGP
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Joshua Palmer anytime touchdown
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Hunter Henry Over 3.5 receptions
Patriots vs Bills odds
- Spread: New England +7.5 | Buffalo -7.5
- Moneyline: New England +363 | Buffalo -460
- Over/Under: Over 49.5| Under 49.5
Patriots vs Bills moneyline prediction
The Bills don’t show mercy when it comes to AFC East rivals, especially the Patriots. Buffalo is 15-1 SU in divisional home games since 2020. With a crazy crowd for Sunday Night Football, Bills Mafia will have plenty to celebrate after this one.
Final score: Buffalo 27, New England 18.
Patriots vs Bills betting trend to know
Since 2023, the New England Patriots are 0-8 SU and 2-4-2 ATS when coming off a win in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bills.
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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