The Washington Commanders head across the country to face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.
Washington will get back franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels after a two-game absence, but my Commanders vs. Chargers predictions don't think that will be enough to upset the Bolts.
Here are my best NFL picks for this Week 5 clash on October 5.
Commanders vs Chargers prediction
Commanders vs Chargers Best bet: Chargers -2.5 (-122)
Jayden Daniels returns to the Washington Commanders lineup after missing the last two weeks. However, No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin and No. 3 WR Noah Brown remain sidelined.
With a banged-up group of receivers, Washington will have a tough time moving the ball against a Los Angeles Chargers stop unit that leads the league in defensive success rate and ranks third in defensive dropback EPA.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers' aerial attack should torch a Commanders defense that has regressed since feasting against Russell Wilson and an inept Giants offense in Week 1.
The Commanders have allowed more than 280 passing yards in each of the last three weeks and now rank 28th in the league in defensive dropback EPA.
Chargers pivot Justin Herbert will look to bounce back from his worst performance of the year, and the fast surface at SoFi Stadium should help. Herbert has been pushing the ball downfield (seventh in the NFL in average intended air yards) and has been spreading the ball around.
Daniels doesn't have the weapons to keep pace with the Chargers' offensive firepower.
Commanders vs Chargers same-game parlay
Herbert threw for 318 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1 before throwing for 300 yards against the Broncos in Week 3. If he could shred those strong secondaries, he should have no problems against a Commanders squad that ranks dead-last in the league in coverage grade per PFF.
Johnston has turned into Herbert's favorite deep threat, hauling in a reception of 30+ yards every week this year. The Commanders have been giving up way too many explosive plays and will have a tough time defending Johnston over the top.
While the Chargers are elite against the pass, they've been more vulnerable against the run, ranking 14th in defensive rush EPA.
Washington has a running back by committee approach, which makes it tough to bet on its RBs. However, Daniels should pick up yards on the ground, especially when he looks downfield and sees his receivers locked up in coverage.
Commanders vs Chargers SGP
- Chargers -2.5
- Justin Herbert Over 264.5 passing yards
- Quentin Johnston Over 24.5 longest reception
- Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Charged up
The Bolts lost Pro Bowl tackle Rashawn Slater for the entire season, and now stud LT Joe Alt is out as well. Herbert has been sacked 12 times, and Armstrong has picked up a sack in six of his last seven games.
Commanders vs Chargers SGP
- Chargers -2.5
- Justin Herbert Over 264.5 passing yards
- Quentin Johnston Over 24.5 longest reception
- Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 rushing yards
- Dorance Armstrong to record a sack
Commanders vs Chargers odds
- Spread: Commanders +2.5 (+100) | Chargers -2.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Commanders +130 | Chargers -154
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-115) | Under 47.5 (-105)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Commanders vs Chargers trend to know
The Chargers are 1-3 O/U in 2025. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Chargers.
How to watch Commanders vs Chargers
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
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