The New York Jets are still trying to give Aaron Glenn his first win as a head coach after a 0-4 start to the season. New York has been close, with three of those defeats coming by six points or less.
Oddsmakers believe this Sunday’s non-conference clash with the Dallas Cowboys could be Gang Green’s best shot at victory, setting the Jets as short home underdogs at MetLife Stadium.
My Cowboys vs. Jets predictions believe that if New York is going to snap this early season funk, it will need dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields to do it all — including powering this run-heavy playbook with his crazy legs.
Fields’ fleet feet are the focus of my NFL picks for October 5.
Cowboys vs Jets prediction
Cowboys vs Jets Best bet: Justin Fields Over 8.5 rushing attempts (+110)
Heading into the season, new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand was building this New York Jets playbook around the run. Justin Fields’ ability to break off big gains on the ground was a huge piece of that plan.
The Jets did just that in Week 1, running at the highest rate of any team in the opening week, with Fields registering a dozen runs for 48 yards and two rushing touchdowns in a close loss to Pittsburgh.
However, Week 2 brought a blowout loss to the Bills — which left New York to abandon the run and go pass-heavy — but also a concussion for Fields, which then held him out of Week 3’s matchup with Tampa Bay. Even with Fields sidelined, backup QB Tyrod Taylor ran eight times in that defeat to the Bucs.
Fields was back in action on Monday, clearing concussion protocol and rushing seven times for 81 yards and a score in a road defeat to the Dolphins. Now, two weeks removed from the concussion, I expect Fields to return to his Week 1 involvement in the run game versus the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Heading into Week 5, Fields has drawn the third-highest carries share among quarterbacks and sits second in the league in designed runs for the position (4.33), along with 3.33 scrambles per game.
The Cowboys defense could be the perfect patsy for Fields. Dallas has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to QBs so far this season. It does a solid job creating pressure but hasn’t been able to get to rival passers for sacks, prompting plenty of scrambles from those opposing QBs.
Week 5 projections differ in terms of Fields’ rushing attempts, with a basement of 5.7 carries. However, the majority of models consulted sit above 8.5 O/U, with some forecasts flirting with 11 runs from the Jets’ quarterback.
Cowboys vs Jets same-game parlay
All those carries will add up to yards. Fields’ rushing forecasts call for as many as 63 yards on the ground.
Fields has scored three rushing touchdowns this season, and he’ll get carries in the red zone.
This spread is sticking short of a field goal for a reason. Dallas could be ripe for a letdown after an emotional tie with Green Bay last week.
Cowboys vs Jets 3-leg SGP
- Justin Fields Over 48.5 rushing yards
- Justin Fields anytime TD
- Jets moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Fields does it all
The Cowboys’ secondary is so, so, so bad. Back Fields to eclipse a low passing yards bar, too.
Cowboys vs Jets 4-leg SGP
- Justin Fields Over 48.5 rushing yards
- Justin Fields anytime TD
- Jets moneyline
- Justin Fields Over 186.5 passing yards
Cowboys vs Jets odds
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5 | Jets +2.5
- Moneyline: Cowboys -142 | Jets +120
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Cowboys vs Jets trend to know
The Jets have gone Over the total in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Jets.
How to watch Cowboys vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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