Two teams going in very different directions right now will clash on Sunday at Paycor Stadium when the 3-1 Detroit Lions take on the 2-2 Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati has lost two straight since the loss of Joe Burrow, and my Lions vs. Bengals predictions believe things will get uglier in Week 5.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Lions vs Bengals prediction
Lions vs Bengals Best bet: Jake Browning Under 9.5 yards (-114)
It's been ugly for quarterback Jake Browning in his two games as a starter in 2025. He had 140 yards passing in a 48-10 loss to the Vikings and 125 in a 28-3 loss to the Broncos — getting sacked thrice in each.
Cincinnati Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and right tackle Amarius Mims both rank in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sack rate allowed at their respective positions this season. That is bad news against Aidan Hutchinson and this Detroit Lions defense.
The Lions' defense ranks fifth in pressure rate and third in rushing efficiency. While lots of pressure can often create quarterback scrambles, Browning couldn't scramble himself out of a paper bag.
The Cincy QB hasn't run for 10 yards in a game in six of his nine career starts. Last week, he was heavily pressured by the Broncos, and he looked like a statue in the pocket, refusing to step up past the pressure.
Lions vs Bengals same-game parlay
To add to my best bet, I am going to add the Lions to cover, as they typically run it up on opponents they're clearly better than.
Finally, David Montgomery has gained the 10th-most yards off missed tackles this season. The Bengals' defense has missed the second-most in the NFL and allowed the most yards off those missed tackles.
Lions vs Bengals SGP
- Jake Browning Under 9.5 rushing yards
- Lions -10.5
- David Montgomery Over 54.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Pound it
This is going to be a big Montgomery game, and I think he could easily get multiple touchdowns in this contest against a defense ranked 26th in rushing efficiency.
Lions vs Bengals SGP
- Jake Browning Under 9.5 rushing yards
- Lions -10.5
- David Montgomery Over 54.5 rushing yards
- David Montgomery 2+ touchdowns
Lions vs Bengals odds
- Spread: Lions -10.5 | Bengals +10.5
- Moneyline: Lions -590 | Bengals +440
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Lions vs Bengals trend to know
The Detroit Lions have covered the third-quarter spread in 14 of their last 18 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Bengals.
How to watch Lions vs Bengals
| Location | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
Lions vs Bengals latest injuries
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