We’re coming off a solid 9–7 ATS week. It's nothing flashy, but a reminder that the reads are trending in the right direction as we hit the most important stretch of the season. Now, with Week 16 on deck, the margin for error is shrinking, and the playoff implications are massive.
This slate brings urgency, motivation, and a pair of Saturday games that could reshape the postseason picture. I’ve gone through every matchup, every number, and every market move to find where the value still lives.
Let’s break down my Week 16 NFL picks against the spread for the full slate.
Week 16 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rams vs  Seahawks |
(-1.5) |
 Eagles vs  Commanders |
(-6.5) |
 Packers vs  Bears |
(+1.5) |
 Bills vs  Browns |
(+10.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Titans |
(+3.5) |
 Jets vs  Saints |
(-4.5) |
 Vikings vs  Giants |
(-2.5) |
 Chargers vs  Cowboys |
(+2.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Panthers |
(+3) |
 Bengals vs  Dolphins |
(-1.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Broncos |
(-3) |
 Falcons vs  Cardinals |
(+2.5) |
 Raiders vs  Texans |
(-14.5) |
 Steelers vs  Lions |
(-6.5) |
 Patriots vs  Ravens |
(-2.5) |
 49ers vs  Colts |
(+5.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-16.
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Expert Week 16 NFL ATS picks
Rams vs. Seahawks: Rams (-1.5)
Maybe the Seattle Seahawks were looking past the Colts to this divisional showdown, but they looked bad either way. The Los Angeles Rams are playing some fantastic football, and NFL MVP odds favorite Matthew Stafford should outplay Sam Darnold.
Eagles vs. Commanders: Eagles (-6.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles got back to their winning ways last week by destroying the Raiders. I fully expect them to build off that momentum and put up a similar scoreline vs. the Washington Commanders.
Packers vs. Bears: Bears (+1.5)
Maybe we should start taking the Chicago Bears seriously? They are in first place in the NFC North, and Soldier Field should be rocking for this divisional clash. I'll trust Caleb Williams over Jordan Love in this spot.
Bills vs. Browns: Browns (+10.5)
The Buffalo Bills trailed the Patriots 24-7 at halftime in Week 15. They scored 28 of the next 35 points to win 35-31. Now, they hit the road to face the lowly Cleveland Browns. Talk about a letdown spot. Not to mention, they've got the Eagles on deck. Grab the points before it dips below double-digits.
Chiefs vs. Titans: Titans (+3.5)
No Patrick Mahomes, no party. This is unfamiliar territory for the Kansas City Chiefs, as they were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. We could very well see them mail it in.
Jets vs. Saints: Saints (-4.5)
Take the New Orleans Saints, the lesser of two bad teams.
Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings (-2.5)
Both teams are playing out the string, but the Minnesota Vikings have more all-around playmakers. J.J. McCarthy needs to continue proving himself, so the added motivation helps.
Chargers vs. Cowboys: Chargers (+2.5)
McCarthy just carved up the Dallas Cowboys, so I've got no hesitation in trusting Justin Herbert on the road.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Panthers (+3)
This is a huge game in the NFC with the winner having the inside track for the division title. I'll side with the Carolina Panthers, who are playing less crappy football than the free-falling Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bengals vs. Dolphins: Bengals (-1.5)
All things considered, I'd rather trust Joe Burrow than Tua Tagovailoa.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos: Broncos (-2.5)
I never thought both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos could be good at the same time. Nonetheless, I'll take the home side with the better defense to cover this short field-goal spread.
Falcons vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (+2.5)
The lesser of the two awful bird teams appears to be the Atlanta Falcons. But I'm not buying it. They caught lightning in a bottle with last week's win over the Bucs, but the Arizona Cardinals aren't as bad as they played last week vs. the Texans. Grab the home underdog here.
Raiders vs. Texans: Texans (-14.5)
Don't pick the Raiders. Don't pick the Raiders. Don't pick the Raiders. Don't pick the Raiders.
Steelers vs. Lions: Lions (-6.5)
Even if they are 8-6 and in line for a postseason birth, I still don't trust the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Detroit Lions are also fighting for a playoff spot, and I like their talent more than I do the Steelers.
Patriots vs. Ravens: Ravens (-2.5)
The Baltimore Ravens need a mini-miracle to sneak into the postseason, and losing this game would all but dash that dream. Lamar Jackson balls out, and the defense steps up in a major way.
49ers vs. Colts: Colts (+5.5)
Maybe the Indianapolis Colts were on to something when they signed Philip Rivers over literally anyone under the age of 35. I'll take them plus the points here vs. a leaky San Francisco 49ers defense.
My NFL ATS record is 110-112-2 this season for -9 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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