The NFL season is still months away, but that hasn't stopped NFL odds from providing us with regular season win totals for each franchise.
Win total odds provide an early barometer for how strong or weak teams are perceived to be entering the season, and how well they're likely to finish as the campaign progresses. As of now, the usual suspects are atop the win totals with Kansas City, San Francisco, and Cincinnati all having win totals of 11.5.
On the other end, books are anticipating rough seasons for Arizona and Houston with win totals of 5.5.
With that said, here is every team's NFL Over/Under win total odds for the 2023 season.
2023 NFL win totals
|Green Bay Packers||7.5||+120||-150|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5||-110||-110|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5||-125||+105|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.5||-120||+100|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7.5||+120||-150|
|New England Patriots||7.5||-120||+100|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5||+105||-125|
|New York Giants||8.5||+105||-125|
|New York Jets||9.5||-130||+110|
|San Francisco 49ers||11.5||+110||-130|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.5||-110||-110|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 29, 2023.
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Which NFL team is expected to have the most wins in 2023?
As of now, the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and San Francisco 49ers all share the highest win totals at 11.5. Following them is several teams with win totals installed at 10.5 as noted above. One win total fans should keep an eye on is the New York Jets, whose 9.5 total will surely move up if Aaron Rodgers finally makes his way there.
Which NFL team is expected to have the least wins in 2023?
There are a handful of teams with totals at 6.5, but the bottom of the barrel honors go to the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans. Books have installed their win totals at a measly 5.5, with the Texans looking to build upon their 3-13 record last season.
When does Vegas release NFL win totals?
Traditionally, sportsbooks opened NFL regular season win totals odds soon after the free agency period and the NFL Draft. However, many sportsbooks have started offering this wager even earlier, releasing NFL props as soon as the week following the Super Bowl.
How to bet NFL season win totals
Season win totals are somewhat self-explanatory: betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team - based on past success, returning personnel and strength of schedule - and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games, such as the conference championship or bowl games.
On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets – also known as vig or juice – depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
For example, oddsmakers calculate TEAM A to win nine games this upcoming season but do feel like there’s a better chance of them winning 10 games rather than 8. Therefore, they set TEAM A with a win total of 9 but increase the vig on the OVER to -130 (bet $1.30 to win $1) and decrease the vig on the UNDER to +110 (win $1.10 for every $1 bet).
OVER 9 WINS (-130)
UNDER 9 WINS (+110)
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season, when all results are final.
NFL win totals trends
- There have been four teams in NFL history who have had an undefeated regular season, with the 2007 New England Patriots being the most recent.
- Five teams have went winles in NFL history, with the 2017 Cleveland Browns being the most recent.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have the most regular season wins in the last 10 years (117)
Win total history
A quick look at recent NFL win total leaders.
|2021-22||13-4|| Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
|2020-21||14-2||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2018-19||13-3|| New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams
|2017-18||13-3||Four seperate teams shared the honor|
|2016-17||14-2||New England Patriots|
|2014-15||12-4||Five seperate teams shared the honor|
|2013-14||13-3|| Denver Broncos
|2012-13||13-3|| Denver Broncos
|2011-12||15-1||Green Bay Packers|