NFL win total props are among the most popular for football bettors, and with the final preseason week coming, NFL season win totals are a hot topic as Week 1 is two weeks away.
NFL regular-season win totals continue to change as we kickoff enter preseason Week 3, but NFL win total odds are still well worth getting a good look at.
Here are the NFL Over/Under win odds for all 32 teams for the 2021 season and its new 17-game schedule.
2021 NFL win totals
|Green Bay Packers||10||-150||+120|
|Kansas City Chiefs||12.5||+110||-130|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5||+115||-135|
|Los Angeles Rams||10.5||+120||-140|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7||-115||-105|
|New England Patriots||9.5||+105||-125|
|New Orleans Saints||9||+100||-120|
|New York Giants||7||-130||+110|
|New York Jets||6||+100||-120|
|San Francisco 49ers||10.5||-105||-115|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||12||-110||-110|
|Washington Football Team||8.5||-120||+100|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on August 26, 2021.
Which NFL team is expected to have the most wins in 2021?
The Super Bowl runner-up Kansas City Chiefs have the highest projected NFL season win total for 2021. Led by MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are also the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The O/U win total for Kansas City sits at 12.5, which is a half-win higher than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are projected for 12 wins after winning last year's Super Bowl.
Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills slot in behind last season's Super Bowl participants at 11 wins, along with the Baltimore Ravens, followed by a three-way tie between the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and San Franciso 49ers at 10.5.
The Green Bay Packers, who have settled the Aaron Rodgers' drama, for now, check in with a win total of 10, along with Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.
Which NFL team is expected to have the fewest wins in 2021?
The Houston Texans are projected to have the fewest wins, with their O/U win total set at a measly 4. With dysfunction from top to bottom and a murky legal situation surrounding quarterback Deshaun Watson, it's understandable to see expectations so low.
Slotting in behind the Texans is the Detroit Lions, currently projected at 4.5 wins for 2021. The Lions are about to enter (another) total rebuild and barring a strong Jared Goff season, it's difficult to imagine Detroit winning many more games than that.
Rounding out the Top-5 lowest win projections are the New York Jets at 6 wins, followed by the Jaguars, who finished with the NFL's worst record a year ago but will have a new look this year with coach Urban Meyer and QB Trevor Lawrence, as well as the Bengals and Eagles at 6.5 projected wins.
Like Jacksonville and Detroit, New York is entering another fresh start with new head coach Robert Saleh and second-overall pick Zach Wilson, while Philadelphia is undergoing a transitional period after a messy end to Doug Pederson's tenure as head coach. The Bengals are in the early stages of the Joe Burrow era and with their new hope coming back from a torn ACL, expectations are rightfully low.
When does Vegas release NFL win totals?
Traditionally, sportsbooks opened NFL regular season win totals odds soon after the free agency period and the NFL Draft. However, many sportsbooks have started offering this wager even earlier, releasing NFL props as soon as the week following the Super Bowl.
How to bet NFL season win totals
Season win totals are somewhat self-explanatory: betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team - based on past success, returning personnel and strength of schedule - and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games, such as the conference championship or bowl games.
On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets – also known as vig or juice – depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
For example, oddsmakers calculate TEAM A to win nine games this upcoming season but do feel like there’s a better chance of them winning 10 games rather than 8. Therefore, they set TEAM A with a win total of 9 but increase the vig on the OVER to -130 (bet $1.30 to win $1) and decrease the vig on the UNDER to +110 (win $1.10 for every $1 bet).
OVER 9 WINS (-130)
UNDER 9 WINS (+110)
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season, when all results are final.