Kentucky Derby betting is a puzzle that gets more complex the more you study it, one featuring plenty of dead ends and false starts.
But handicapping a 20-horse Kentucky Derby that resembles the Charge of the Light Brigade — albeit with a more lucrative and less-violent ending — does come with some tips and tricks that helps you steer away from those dead ends.
My Kentucky Derby cheat sheet can help you cash some winning tickets for Saturday’s 152nd running of America’s most famous horse race.
Keys to picking the Kentucky Derby winner
- Start by eliminating the no-hopers. Even in a deep field like this, that should take out about half the Kentucky Derby horses.
- From there, check Jennie Rees’ Final Fractions Theory. You want a horse possessing tactical speed who ran his final furlong of his last Derby prep in under 13 seconds and/or his final three furlongs in under 38 seconds. Twenty-one of the last 28 Derby winners checked that last box. This year, 12 check both.
- "Who’s your daddy?" matters. Thirteen of the last 16 Derby winners are progeny of stallions who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
- Come in strong, or don’t bother. Since 1958, every Derby winner for betting purposes (taking into account disqualifications) has finished fourth or better in his final prep race.
- Avoid Kentucky Derby post positions 1, 2 and 17. Favorite Renegade drew the rail and will try to be the first horse since Ferdinand 40 years ago to win from Post 1. Sorry, Albus, the last Post 2 starter to win was Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978, and you’re no Affirmed. Horses starting from Post 17 are 0-for-46, another hurdle for long shot Six Speed.
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2026 Kentucky Derby tiers
Favorites
Yes, a 20-horse, 10-furlong free-for-all is daunting to handicap, and zaniness — see 80-1 Rich Strike’s slalom run to victory in the 2022 Derby — can and does prevail.
The betting favorite hasn’t won the Derby for betting purposes since Justify in 2018. But following our keys above, there are certain factors that make our favorites first among unequals in the Kentucky Derby odds.
Commandment (6-1): Brings a four-race win streak that includes the best Derby prep this season: the Florida Derby. There’s also his five wins at five different distances, by margins ranging from a nose to 6 3/4 lengths. Checks every box of a Derby winner: speed, pedigree, running style, and refuse-to-lose attitude.
Renegade (4-1): To borrow a line from Styx, this Renegade had it made — until drawing the dreaded rail. Still, if anyone can win from there, it’s this closer who destroyed the Arkansas Derby field with the fastest final eighth (11.84 seconds) in this field. The deserving favorite.
Emerging Market (15-1): The last horse to win a Derby with only two starts was Leonatus in 1883. But even lacking a solid foundation, it’s hard to ignore the Louisiana Derby winner, who proved he has the pedigree and stamina to contend here.
Chief Wallabee (8-1): Third to Commandment and The Puma in the Florida Derby is enough of an endorsement, even as he adds blinkers — traditionally a red flag. But we trust Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who sent Sovereignty to Derby glory last year. We also trust the value, strong final fractions speed figures (12.6/36.9) and 3-for-3 in-the-money finishes in tough races.
Contenders
We talked about the free-for-all nature of a modern Derby, where — especially this year — there isn’t that one buzz horse who everyone points to. That’s why you could make an argument for any of these four to wear roses on Saturday.
The Puma (10-1): Owner of one of the most versatile and gutsy running styles in the field, The Puma has run with Derby A-listers Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Renegade, and Further Ado and has hit the board every time.
Danon Bourbon (20-1): This Japanese invader is unbeaten in three races of 1 1/8 miles or further, and nobody has come within three lengths of him. Can he follow the hoofprints of fellow Japanese import Forever Young’s third-place photo-finish in 2024? The price is there to find out.
Further Ado (6-1): You’re going to look at the way he dismantled the Blue Grass Stakes field (G1) by 11 lengths and his Derby field-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure from that race, and figure he’s an A-lister here. Plenty to like, but we think he’s an underlay here, given the weak field he dismantled in the Blue Grass, and penchant for Keeneland, where two of his three wins came.
So Happy (15-1): His supporters point to his three-wins-in-four races, including scores in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and San Vicente Stakes (G2), and his 100 Beyer Speed Figure. Detractors point to his pedigree; his sire is champion sprinter Runhappy, and the perfect trip he got in the Santa Anita Derby won’t repeat. We’re splitting the difference because he offers great value down-ticket.
Sleepers
Here’s where finding the right sleeper can light up the toteboard — and your tickets. A closer with odds of 10-1 or higher has found the superfecta 12 consecutive years, with 17-1 Final Gambit finishing fourth last year. And in 10 of 12 years, closers made up two of the four superfecta spots.
Finally, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the Top 4 since 2012.
Golden Tempo (30-1): Please don’t expect him to win, but this deep closer belongs on all of your exotic tickets. He fits the profile of deep-closing alums of the Louisiana Derby who somehow find their way into Derby superfectas. Nine of the past 15 Derbies have featured a deep-closing product from the longest (1 3/16 miles) Derby prep finishing Top 4. Oh, and he’s hit the board in all four of his starts (2-0-1).
Incredibolt (20-1): The speed is there, as witnessed by the way this Bolt d’Oro colt took apart an admittedly weak field by four lengths in the Virginia Derby with final fractions (11.9/36.1) among the best in the Derby field. Trained by Riley Mott, the up-and-coming son of Bill, Incredibolt is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. He’s also stepping up in class and is a deep closer in a field loaded with them, so use him underneath.
Fulleffort (20-1): Another deep closer with questions, primarily can he run on dirt? Fulleffort’s last three races came on the Turfway Park synthetic, including a confident 2 1/2-length score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). He hasn’t missed the board in six consecutive starts, but his first four tries came on turf, and his last three on synthetic. If his form transfers — and transfers to Post 20 — there’s a price to be had here.
Horses to avoid
The easiest way to handicap a Derby is to eliminate the horses who — barring a Rich Strike-style miracle — simply can’t win. Here are three horses you can confidently leave off your tickets.
Six Speed (50-1): Normally, the lone speed in a race has our attention. Except when the lone speed in a Derby doesn’t have the tactical speed needed over 10 furlongs. We don’t like the horse who reeled him in at the UAE Derby — Wonder Dean — so why should we like the runner-up with subpar speed numbers breaking from the Post of Death— Post 17?
Right to Party (30-1): We’re not breaking out the party hats with this one, who staggered home as the runner-up at 38-1 in one of the weakest Wood Memorial fields this century. He did so courtesy of a pace meltdown that won’t repeat itself in the Derby. Oh, and he’s a deep closer in a field full of better horses of that genus.
Litmus Test (30-1): We get it. You can’t resist Bob Baffert bringing a Derby horse to the gate at 30-1. But when you see how Litmus Test has flunked both his tests as a 3-year-old (a seventh in the Arkansas Derby and a non-threatening third in the Rebel Stakes), it’s easy to understand that his form is regressing. This is one Baffert colt who doesn’t meet the Hall of Famer’s usual Derby litmus test.
Three best bets for the 2026 Kentucky Derby
No. 6 Commandment to win (+600 at FanDuel Racing)
Where do we start? With the four-race winning streak this Into Mischief progeny brings into the starting gate, a streak that began with a maiden score at Churchill Downs last fall and sits on a gutsy stretch victory by a nose over The Puma in the Florida Derby? With that gutsy, stalking running style that plays very well in Derbies?
Stalkers typically do very well in Derbies, especially when they have the speed and ability to overcome bad trips Commandment has shown during his winning streak. "Thou shalt bet this horse" is a good Commandment to follow.
$5 exacta No. 1 Renegade, No. 6 Commandment, No. 9 The Puma, No. 15 Emerging Market over No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 8 So Happy, No. 19 Golden Tempo
This $5 exacta will cost you $60, but it covers four of our likely winners and three sleepers/longshots we like. You could spice this up by putting Renegade in both slots, because he is not only the best closer here, but one of the two best horses in the field.
It’s almost a foregone conclusion a closer or two will hit this board, and given Renegade’s rail post, he may be a likelier candidate to run second.
$5 exacta No. 1 Renegade, No. 6 Commandment over No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, No. 15 Emerging Market, No. 19 Golden Tempo
Another $5 exacta ($50 total investment) we like because of the value and potential of the second-slot horses. Japanese import Danon Bourbon (20-1), gritty Florida Derby runner-up The Puma (10-1), underrated Chief Wallabee (8-1), Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market (15-1), and our favorite sleeper Golden Tempo (30-1) are all legitimate board-hitting candidates behind the two best horses in the field.
Kentucky Derby betting for beginners
If you're thinking about betting on a horse race for the first time on May 2, you're not alone. Below are some fun Kentucky Derby betting ideas for Saturday's big race.
The most fun bets for…
- A first-time bettor: First-time bettors want to keep it simple, yet have the varied rooting interest a 20-horse Derby field. For $25, make a $10 win bet on Commandment, a $3 across-the-board wager (betting on a horse to win, place or show) on Emerging Market ($9) and a $1 exacta box ($6) with Commandment, Renegade and Golden Tempo.
- Someone with only $10 to bet: Let’s get exotic and do a $1 exacta box ($6) with Commandment, Renegade and Emerging Market. Take the other $4 and make a $2 exacta wager with Commandment over Golden Tempo and Emerging Market.
- Someone who wants to cheer for two horses: If there’s two horses you like, the exacta is the bet for you. Box your two favorites for twice the ticket price. For example, a two-horse, $5 exacta box is $10. This gives you twice the chances to win, because if your horses finish 1-2 or 2-1, you cash.
- Someone who loves underdogs: If you’re rooting for an underdog/great story, you could do far worse than betting on So Happy (15-1). The Santa Anita Derby winner is trained by Mark Glatt — one of the good guys in racing — who lost his wife, Dena, to heart failure in February.
Don't miss our comprehensive guide on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby at our best Kentucky Derby betting sites.
Printable Kentucky Derby odds
Want to keep track of your 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions — or looking to host a Kentucky Derby betting pool? Use our printable Kentucky Derby odds sheet to keep track of all your wagers this weekend!
