Bengals vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for NFL Week 16

Farley's Prediction: Expect a high-scoring affair in Miami.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Dec 19, 2025 • 13:50 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 44 hrs
MIA
48 %
CIN
52 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
o47.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals
Photo By - Imagn Images. Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Despite both teams being out of playoff contention, this clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins is far from a non-event.

With talk swirling about his future, Joe Burrow needs to perform, while on the other sideline, rookie Quinn Ewers makes his first NFL start.

My Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions, however, point to a high-scoring affair.

Don’t miss our NFL picks for Sunday, December 21.

Bengals vs Dolphins prediction

Bengals vs Dolphins Best bet: Over 47.5 (-110)

All the noise heading into this game is around the Miami Dolphins’ decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa and give Quinn Ewers his first start.

Ewers only has eight pass attempts so far in his NFL career, but despite usually fading seventh-round rookies making their start, there are reasons to be optimistic that the Dolphins can do their bit to get this score up.

Namely, that a rookie can’t have an easier debut than against the NFL’s worst defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals are dead last in defensive DVOA, have allowed the fifth most passing yards per game, and have given up the most rushing yards per game, with a staggering 157.9.

Mike McDaniel might be on the hot seat, but there’s no doubting that he’s a smart offensive mind and should be able to dial up enough plays to get Ewers looking reasonable, especially with the Dolphins leaning on De’Von Achane.

On the other sideline, you have a Bengals offense that is simply far, far better when Joe Burrow is under center.

Last week felt like a real low for Burrow and one of his worst performances, but he has the belief and confidence to bounce back, and should do so against a bottom-half-of-the-league defense.

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Bengals vs Dolphins same-game parlay

De’Von Achane can hurt defenses in a variety of ways, and with the Bengals being first in rushing yards allowed and third in receiving yards allowed to running backs, he’s poised for a big Sunday.

Despite being questionable, we’re taking Darren Waller to find the endzone. The Bengals have given up a league high 15 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, and Waller is third in red zone targets for the Dolphins receiving corps, despite playing just seven of 14 games.

Bengals vs Dolphins SGP

  • Over 47.5 
  • De’Von Achane Over 115.5 rushing + receiving yards
  • Darren Waller anytime touchdown

Our big-ticket SGP: Burrow's Bombs!

We’ll add Joe Burrow to bounce back and silence the talk around his future. He’s broken 259 passing yards in two of three games since returning from injury in Week 13.

Finally, we’re taking De'Von Achane to score, too. The Bengals have allowed 18 touchdowns to opposing RBs, the third most in the NFL, and Achane has already racked up 11 touchdowns to his name, despite the Dolphins’ struggles this season.

Bengals vs Dolphins SGP

  • Over 47.5 
  • De’Von Achane Over 115.5 rushing + receiving yards
  • Darren Waller anytime touchdown
  • Joe Burrow Over 258.5 passing yards
  • De’Von Achane anytime touchdown

Bengals vs Dolphins odds

  • Spread: Bengals +1.5 (-115) | Dolphins -1.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Bengals -105 | Dolphins -115
  • Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)

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Bengals vs Dolphins trend to know

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Dolphins.

How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins

Location Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Date Sunday, December 21, 2025
Kickoff 1:00 p.m. ET
TV CBS

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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