It’s not rare to see significant turnover from one NFL season to the next, as a handful of teams that looked dominant one year suddenly fall back to the pack.
Whether it’s tougher schedules, roster changes, or simply regression to the mean, things shift quickly in this league.
Here's my list of teams that might not be what they're all cracked up to be in 2026, in addition to a handful of NFL picks and NFL futures to make when fading those top teams.
NFL futures for biggest regression candidates
| Team | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Rams |
⬇️ Under 11.5 wins | -120 |
 Ravens |
⬇️ Under 11.5 wins | -140 |
 Jaguars |
❌ Miss the playoffs | +102 |
 Eagles |
⬇️ Under 10.5 wins Cowboys to win NFC East |
-140 +200 |
 Patriots |
❌ Miss the playoffs | +180 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 4-30.
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#5: Los Angeles Rams
This one might catch people off guard because the Los Angeles Rams are favorites in the Super Bowl odds, but there are some serious red flags heading into 2026.
First, the controversial draft pick of Ty Simpson. They had the 13th overall pick and could have added someone who contributes right away. Instead, they went with a longer-term project, and Sean McVay didn’t exactly appear thrilled about it.
Why reach for Simpson in the first place? Well, Matthew Stafford is 38 years old with a lot of wear and tear. He’s coming off an MVP season, but aging quarterbacks can fall off fast. One year they look like MVPs, the next they look... old.
We’ve seen it with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady really skewed expectations, but he’s the outlier.
Another issue is Puka Nacua getting into trouble and ending up in rehab this offseason. Hopefully, he gets his head screwed on straight, but situations like this don’t always resolve cleanly. This team should still be competitive, but matching 12 wins feels unlikely.
Best bet: Under 11.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
#4: Baltimore Ravens
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are coming off a losing season, but they’re still sitting with a win total of 11.5 and are favored to win the AFC North. I’m not buying it.
The biggest concern is Lamar Jackson’s health. He missed four games last season, and that’s now happened three times in the last five years. At this point, he’s been more injury-prone than durable, and players rarely get healthier as they age — especially duel-threat QBs. On top of that, Derrick Henry is entering his 11th season. It’s fair to question how much longer he can be a difference-maker.
There’s also a lot of change. A revamped offensive line and a new head coach in Jesse Minter. That combination doesn’t always click right away.
Then there’s the division. The Steelers are always surprisingly competitive, the Browns had a strong draft, and the Bengals are in a now-or-never window. There are just too many variables.
Best bet: Under 11.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
#3: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are widely viewed as one of the worst-graded teams from the 2026 NFL Draft, and that matters when you consider they already took a massive swing on Travis Hunter last year. That gamble isn’t looking great, and horrible drafting can quickly add up.
They also benefited from a perfect storm last season on their way to 13 wins with a cupcake schedule of opposing QBs in the second half. Now they face a first-place schedule with fewer easy matchups, with only the Browns standing out as a gimme (depending on how you feel about the Titans, of course).
With a tougher schedule, a more competitive AFC South, and questionable roster decisions stacking up, this looks like a team that takes a step back.
Best bet: Miss the playoffs (+102 at DraftKings)
More NFL futures markets
#2: Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles always feel like they’re hanging on by a thread, and this might be the season where they officially crack.
They’ve won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons, but there are already signs of trouble. Reports surfaced this offseason about Jalen Hurts not being coachable and tension within the locker room. That’s concerning on its own, and even more so when you factor in his dip in efficiency last season.
Now he has to learn a new system under yet another offensive coordinator. This will be their fifth OC in five years, which is far from ideal. On top of that, the rest of the division is improving. The Giants upgraded at head coach, Dallas continues to field an elite offense, and if Jayden Daniels stays healthy, Washington could be back in the mix.
The drop-off may have already started with their struggles late last season, which ended in a home playoff loss to the 49ers.
Best bet: Under 10.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Cowboys to win NFC East (+200 at DraftKings)
#1: New England Patriots
Two major factors are working against the New England Patriots. First is the Mike Vrabel situation. It might not directly impact the players on the field, but the longer this story lingers, the more humiliating it gets for the coach and his family.
Vrabel went from being widely respected to an absolute joke of a man with zero integrity. That kind of shift can affect a coach’s presence and effectiveness. I think he’ll be rattled by the morbidly obese elephant in the room set to cast a shadow on the season.
Even if that proves to be a non-factor, the schedule is a serious problem. A big part of last season’s success came against non-stop bottom-feeder opponents with questionable motivation, and they took full advantage of it.
That won’t be the case this year. Just look at seven of their nine road opponents: Bills, Bears, Chiefs, Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, and Seahawks. With a much tougher slate and a head coach who could be a shell of his former self, this team looks like a prime candidate to come back down to earth.
Best bet: Miss the playoffs (+180 at DraftKings)
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