The Detroit Lions welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Ford Field on Sunday afternoon.
Detroit leads the NFL in scoring, and my Steelers vs. Lions predictions are betting on that explosive attack to take advantage of a Pittsburgh defense missing T.J. Watt.
Here are my best NFL picks for this pivotal Week 16 clash on December 21.
Steelers vs Lions prediction
Steelers vs Lions Best bet: Lions team total Over 29.5 (-125)
The Detroit Lions are fifth in the league in offensive DVOA, and they tend to play better indoors on the fast surface at Ford Field. They lead the NFL in points per game (30.6) with that number ticking up to 33.7 ppg at home.
They will be able to move the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who surrender 25.4 ppg on the road and are on a short week after playing on Monday night.
The Steelers are 21st in the league in defensive EPA. Their secondary has been getting torched for most of the season, while their run defense was shredded in recent weeks by the Bills and Ravens.
That stop unit will be even worse with All-Pro edge T.J. Watt and another top pass rusher in Nick Herbig likely out with injuries on Sunday.
Detroit struggled to convert on third down earlier in the season, but improved after Dan Campbell took over play-calling.
The Lions are ninth in the league in third-down conversion rate over the last three games (45.7%) while Pittsburgh ranks 27th in third-down defense (42.4%).
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Steelers vs Lions same-game parlay
Pittsburgh is 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (242.4). Jared Goff has thrown for at least 265 yards in five of his last seven games, and he'll have plenty of time to throw with Watt and Herbig out.
That likely also means big numbers for No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is coming off a game where he hauled in 13 of 18 targets for 164 yards.
The All-Pro has seen his target share increase after TE Sam LaPorta was lost to a back injury. The Steelers are 26th in the league in receiving yards allowed to WRs and are particularly bad at defending slot receivers.
Jahmyr Gibbs has scored 16 touchdowns this year, and he has punched the ball into the end zone in every Lions win.
Steelers vs Lions SGP
- Lions team total Over 29.5
- Jared Goff Over 264.5 passing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Lions Roar!
I'm betting the Lions on their team total, not the spread, because I don't trust their injury-depleted secondary.
That makes this a nice spot to back D.K. Metcalf, who is far and away the Steelers' best wideout and has scored six touchdowns this year.
Steelers vs Lions SGP
- Lions team total Over 29.5
- Jared Goff Over 264.5 passing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- D.K. Metcalf anytime touchdown
Steelers vs Lions odds
- Spread: Steelers +6.5 (-102) | Lions -6.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Steelers +260 | Lions -320
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-114) | Under 51.5 (-106)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Lions trend to know
The Lions have hit the first half Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Lions.
How to watch Steelers vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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