Sometimes you just have to play the hits.
One of my favorite – and most profitable – bets week to week has been taking the Over on Josh Allen’s passing touchdowns.
With the Buffalo Bills traveling to Ohio to clash with the Cleveland Browns and oddsmakers setting Allen & Co. as double-digit road chalk in Week 16, this prop option is once again offering value.
Here are my best NFL picks and Bill vs. Browns predictions on December 21.
Bills vs Browns prediction
Bills vs Browns Best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110)
Josh Allen’s passing touchdown prop market is unique compared to most other quarterbacks.
There’s no denying Allen’s passing prowess and the reigning MVP has connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 14 starts this season. He’s thrown for three TDs in each of the past two games.
Most QBs of his quality would see the Over on touchdown throws carrying a hefty ask but Allen’s ability to run for the end zone anchors the vig on the Over each week, with juice often sitting at -130 or shorter.
That’s the case in Week 16, with the Over 1.5 passing TDs priced at +110.
Sure, there are variables at play that could keep Allen Under this mark.
The Cleveland Browns pass rush could put Allen on the run in the red zone. The Buffalo Bills’ receiving corps is dinged up and facing a solid Browns pass defense (Top 10 EPA/success rate allowed since Week 10). And Allen has thrown for two or more touchdowns in just three of his seven road outings this season.
All of these are good reasons why the Under 1.5 passing TDs from Allen is listed at -146. Yet, I’ll be betting on two or more tuddies off the arm of Allen in Cleveland.
As mentioned, he’s gone Over this total in nine of 14 games, but unlike many other quarterbacks, he’s not dependent on one or two targets to catch those scoring strikes.
Twenty-five passing TDs have been spread amongst 10 different receivers, and tight ends and running backs catch and score just as often as wideouts.
Cleveland has given up two passing touchdowns in each its last two outings, with Caleb Williams and Cam Ward doubling up, and there are injuries to starters in the Browns secondary. Allen’s projections range from 1.5 to 1.9 with the majority of models at 1.7 or higher.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
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Bills vs Browns same-game parlay
Buffalo can’t afford a letdown in Cleveland this week. The Bills can get up quick and force the Browns to put the ball in Shedeur Sanders' hands while he plays behind a broken offensive line.
Allen has tossed two or more touchdowns in nine of his 14 games and has three in each of the last two outings.
Dalton Kincaid is nursing an ankle injury but when he’s active, the tight end is Allen’s top RZ option.
Bills vs Browns SGP
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Sanders finds an escape
Buffalo is a -10.5 road favorite and a loss would throw a wrench in their postseason plans.
Allen’s projections all lean toward two touchdowns in Week 16.
Cleveland has allowed just 22 passing touchdowns – five coming from tight ends.
Sanders’ pass protection is hurting and he’ll have to escape pressure.
Bills vs Browns SGP
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
- Shedeur Sanders Over 8.5 rushing yards
Will Myles Garrett break the sack record in Week 16?
Browns’ pass rush supernova Myles Garret is one sack away from tying the NFL’s single-season sack record of 22.5 sacks entering Week 16.
He’s currently listed at -2000 to break the record at FanDuel but can he do it against Josh Allen and the Bills? Not if the Buffalo QB has anything to say about it.
"I do like highlight tapes, but I don't like being a part of other people's highlight tapes,” Allen told the media when asked about potentially being the quarterback taking the record-breaking sack.
Allen has taken 33 sacks on the season, including five in the past two games, but has only felt pressure on 17% of dropbacks. The Bills offensive line is among the best in the land, ranking No. 3 in pass block win rate at ESPN and No. 4 in pass block rating at PFF.
Garrett is listed at -188 to record a sack on Sunday and +180 to break the record versus Buffalo. While he may get one sack on Allen – and tie the record – I believe we’ll have to wait until Week 17 to see the record go down.
Bills vs Browns moneyline prediction
Buffalo runs the risk of a letdown after that thrilling comeback at New England last Sunday, but the Bills can ill afford a stumble in terms of the AFC playoff pecking order.
Final score: Buffalo 27, Cleveland 13.
Bills vs Browns odds
- Spread: Buffalo -10.5 (-105) | Cleveland +10.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -650 | Cleveland +480
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Browns trend to know
The Under is 10-6-1 in the last 16 games with Cleveland set as a home underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Browns.
How to watch Bills vs Browns
| Location | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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