The Baltimore Ravens can’t afford to stumble in the final three weeks of the schedule if they’re going to play their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night Football presents a significant test for Baltimore, as the New England Patriots visit M&T Bank Stadium in Week 16.
And when something stands in the way of this Baltimore team, Derrick Henry usually runs right through it.
The running back is the focus of my Patriots vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks for December 21.
Patriots vs Ravens prediction
Patriots vs Ravens best bet: Derrick Henry Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114)
Although Derrick Henry’s output dipped a bit toward the end of November, the Baltimore Ravens’ battering ram has rumbled for 94 and 100 yards in his last two outings.
Henry always makes it a December to remember, with the running back doing his best work in the home stretch of the schedule. For his career, Henry averages 5.17 yards per carry in December and puts up almost 93 yards rushing per game in the final month of the regular season.
The New England Patriots do present a stiffer test than Baltimore’s last two opponents, but what was once the league’s best run-stopping unit has shown major cracks with key players going down in the second half of the season.
Since losing standout DT Milton Williams, New England has gone from a Top 8 defense in EPA allowed per carry and opponent success rate per run to 30th and 31st in those advanced metrics since Week 11.
On top of missing Williams for at least one more week, the Patriots' defensive depth chart is littered with injuries in the front seven. Three of four starting linebackers currently carry questionable designations.
Last week, the Pats buckled for 168 yards on 37 carries from the Bills’ ground game, and with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing time due to the flu, New England will get two scoops of “King Henry” on Sunday night.
Player projections for Henry range from 71 yards to a high of 83.5, with the bulk of those forecasts sitting above his current rushing yards total. If carrying Baltimore to the postseason isn’t motivation enough, Henry also faces his former head coach, Mike Vrabel.
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Patriots vs Ravens SNF same-game parlay
Henry seems to heat up as the weather gets colder. He faces a Patriots run stop that has fallen off the face of the earth since Week 11.
Who better to finish off those drives than the man who got you there? Henry will get some goal-line plunges.
Maye faces a Ravens defense really stepping it up in terms of disguising coverage and getting after the QB. He’ll be forced to tuck and run.
Patriots vs Ravens SGP
- Derrick Henry Over 79.5 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
- Drake Maye Over 21.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: They Forgot About TreVeyon
Henry has rushed for 90+ yards in two straight games, and projections call for up to 83.5 yards on SNF.
With Lamar under the weather, Henry could get more than the usual workload, including extra touches in the red zone.
Maye is projected for more than 28 rushing yards and rushed for 43 yards in Week 15.
TreVeyon Henderson is proving to be an all-around weapon and has registered 13 receiving yards or more in four straight games.
Patriots vs Ravens SGP
- Derrick Henry Over 79.5 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
- Drake Maye Over 21.5 rushing yards
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 12.5 receiving yards
Patriots vs Ravens odds
- Spread: New England +2.5 (-110) | Baltimore -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New England +120 | Baltimore -140
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)
Patriots vs Ravens betting trend to know
Under coach John Harbaugh (since 2008), Baltimore is 19-26 O/U (58% Unders) at home when the spread closes at a field goal or shorter (-3 to +3). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Ravens.
How to watch Patriots vs Ravens
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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