The Houston Texans are hitting their stride at the perfect moment for a deep playoff run, and things could get ugly on Sunday as their ferocious defense goes to work against the feeble Las Vegas Raiders.
This is the definition of a mismatch, with Las Vegas dropping eight in a row and Houston riding a six-game win streak, and my Raiders vs Texans predictions expect Nico Collins to spark a lopsided victory for the hosts.
Take a closer look at this December 21 matchup with my free NFL picks and betting angles.
Raiders vs Texans prediction
Raiders vs Texans Best bet: Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards (-114)
If the Houston Texans are going to make some noise in the postseason, it’s fair to look at their defensive firepower as DeMeco Ryans’ biggest advantage.
However, the Houston offense still needs to consistently put points on the board, so it’s been encouraging to see the C.J. Stroud–Nico Collins connection back at its best and torching secondaries.
Collins has been unstoppable over the last two months. He’s racked up 662 receiving yards in his past seven contests — at a 94.6 YPG clip — and he turned three catches into 85 yards and two touchdowns last weekend. Collins has already clinched his third straight 1,000-yard season, and he’s blown past this O/U number in six of his last seven games.
Stroud will also target Dalton Schultz and Jayden Higgins, but Collins is the clear No. 1 option, and this prop line is surprisingly low given what we’ve seen lately from the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense. Last weekend, Jalen Hurts turned 12 completions into 175 yards and three TDs against Las Vegas.
Collins has logged three catches of 50+ yards since Week 10, and I’m pencilling him in for more chunk plays on Sunday. Houston is coming off a 40-point explosion last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, and Stroud should be feeding his top target again here.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Raiders vs Texans same-game parlay
The Texans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, and this huge spread isn’t big enough to dissuade me from laying the points with the hosts. The Raiders have lost four of their past five contests by 14+ points, and now they face a Houston defense that’s held Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to a combined 29 points this season.
And yet, I’m buying into the idea of Geno Smith throwing a touchdown pass. Las Vegas may have shelved the running game by early in the second half, so a garbage-time score could be on the menu. Smith has tossed at least one touchdown in each of his last four starts.
Raiders vs Texans SGP
- Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards
- Texans -14.5
- Geno Smith Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Our big-ticket SGP: Dalton Damage
Schultz is a proven security blanket for Stroud, who’s targeted his big tight end 8+ times in five of the last seven games.
I’m expecting steady volume again on Sunday for Schultz, who finished with eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last weekend and leads Houston with 70 receptions this season.
Raiders vs Texans SGP
- Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards
- Texans -14.5
- Geno Smith Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
- Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptions
Raiders vs Texans odds
- Spread: Raiders +12.5 (-110) | Texans -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Raiders +550 | Texans -800
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-110) | Under 37.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Raiders vs Texans trend to know
The Texans are 5-2 ATS at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Texans.
How to watch Raiders vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Raiders vs Texans latest injuries
Raiders vs Texans weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
