My Chiefs vs. Seahawks predictions anticipate the defending champs handing Patrick Mahomes & Co. their first loss of the season tonight. The Seattle Seahawks' elite four-man pass rush may be the difference against Mahomes, especially with them rested and back at Lumen Field for Sunday Night Football.
My NFL picks also include a George Holani anytime touchdown, a three-leg combo, and a Kenneth Walker III receiving yards prop against his former team.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point home favorites with a 56% win probability. Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
TOP PICK
Chiefs vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks moneyline
The Seattle Seahawks have had a week and a half to stew over what could have been against Denver.
Seattle outplayed the Broncos on a challenging short-week trip to the thin air of Mile High, but three turnovers left the Seahawks with a 17-14 loss despite outgaining Denver by 186 yards.
The Seahawks are rested and ready with the 12s on their side tonight, presenting a much stiffer test for the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City hasn't faced a defense as good as Seattle's. Outside of a Week 1 win over Denver, the Chiefs have beaten defensive units currently ranked 21st or worse in defensive DVOA.
Seattle ranks No. 2 in defensive DVOA, and its four-man front is the biggest reason I'm taking the home team to win outright.
The Seahawks generate the second-highest pressure rate despite Mike Macdonald blitzing on fewer than 24% of opponent dropbacks. Seattle leads ESPN's pass-rush win rate, with 16 sacks and 30 QB hits.
Whenever Patrick Mahomes has struggled, it's been against opponents capable of generating that kind of pressure with just a four-man rush. His 2026 PFF offensive grade drops from 90.6 when kept clean to 64.8 under duress.
That defensive advantage also shapes our Week 7 NFL AI predictions, which project a 24-20 Seattle win.
COVERS INTEL: The Chiefs' third-down success rate has slipped over the past three games, dipping to 36.7%. Seattle is elite on third downs, allowing the third-lowest conversion rate and fourth-lowest EPA per third-down snap.
Chiefs vs Seahawks combo
The Seahawks have the rest and home edge, bringing the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season.
George Holani's touchdown market is being discounted due to Zach Charbonnet's possible return, but Holani should still get his share of touches in the second half.
Kenneth Walker III may struggle to run against Seattle's stingy run defense, but Andy Reid will find ways to get him the ball. Projections have him topping 20 receiving yards on SNF.
That receiving angle also features in our Week 7 NFL player prop picks, where Jason Logan projects Walker for 23 yards through the air.
- Seahawks moneyline
- George Holani anytime touchdown
- Kenneth Walker III 20+ receiving yards
This exact three-leg play also appears in our Week 7 NFL expert combo picks. For more same-game parlays, see our NFL parlay and SGP picks.
Chiefs vs Seahawks player prop: Kenneth Walker III 20+ receiving yards
Kenneth Walker III has rolled over some ho-hum run-stop units to start his Kansas City career, but he'll be getting the stiffest test from his old pals in the Emerald City.
If the Week 7 projections hold up, Walker will play a bigger role in the KC passing game on Sunday night.
With the Seahawks shutting down the ground game, Andy Reid will find ways to get the ball into Walker’s hands, including using him as a valuable check-down option in the passing game.
Seattle allowed 31 receiving yards to Denver RB R.J. Harvey last week and enters Week 7 having surrendered the 10th-most targets and sixth-most receptions to opposing running backs this season.
Game models for Walker are pass-positive, ranging from 18 yards to a high of 26 yards, with most models north of 20 yards receiving. My number comes out to 23 yards through the air.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Chiefs vs Seahawks touchdown scorer: George Holani
Anyone who traded the touchdown markets with Seattle last year knows the weekly shell game that comes with selecting a Seahawks running back to find the end zone.
Charbonnet is trending toward playing his first game for Seattle since injuring his knee in the postseason last year. That's shaking up the touchdown markets for running backs Emanuel Wilson and Holani.
Holani scored his first touchdown last week and was the Seahawks' weapon of choice in the second half, leading Seattle's running backs with a 58% snap share. On the season, Holani has eight red-zone carries and is the third-down option, with two receptions inside the 20-yard line.
It sounds like Charbonnet will be limited if he returns, which could leave second-half duties to Holani once again. Despite scoring against Denver last week, Holani's anytime touchdown prices still offer a solid return in Week 7.
For a different scoring angle in this matchup, our Week 7 NFL anytime touchdown picks spotlight Mahomes as a rushing touchdown candidate.
More SNF picks
- Chiefs vs. Seahawks props
- Chiefs vs. Seahawks touchdown picks
- Chiefs vs. Seahawks expert picks
- Sunday Night Football best bets: Week 7
- Chiefs vs. Seahawks player prop projections
- Top picks: 9-5, +3.04 units
- Combos: 0-14, -14.0 units
More Week 7 NFL picks and predictions
- NFL Week 7 top picks: Jason Logan's Seahawks moneyline is the Sunday night selection
- NFL Week 7 moneyline picks: Trevor Knapp makes the opposing case for Kansas City
- NFL Week 7 picks against the spread: a separate angle backing Chiefs +2.5
- NFL Week 7 odds and betting lines: market prices across the Sunday slate
Chiefs vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Chiefs +2.5 | Seahawks -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (50%) | Under 42.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Chiefs 44% | Seahawks 56%
Follow the Chiefs vs. Seahawks market prices up to kickoff.
For the full slate of NFL matchups, see our NFL odds board.
Chiefs vs Seahawks weather
The National Weather Service forecasts a 40% chance of rain tonight, mainly later in the evening, with temperatures in the upper 40s and little wind.
See our NFL weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
Chiefs vs Seahawks trend to know
Since 2020, Seattle is 7-2 straight-up when favored by a field goal or less at Lumen Field. Find more Chiefs vs. Seahawks betting trends.
How to watch Chiefs vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Chiefs vs Seahawks latest injuries
See our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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