The Seattle Seahawks are trading at 59% against the Kansas City Chiefs, who sit at 42% on Kalshi, with the total set around 42.5.
Our Chiefs vs. Seahawks anytime prop picks target concentrated scoring roles in a matchup highlighted by strong defense.
Kenneth Walker III’s return to Seattle is the headline, while Rashee Rice's and Zach Charbonnet's absences narrow both teams’ red-zone trees. Here are our three NFL player prop trades, plus more NFL picks.
Best Chiefs vs Seahawks props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown |
54% |
| Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown |
29% |
 Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown
Sure, I'll bite.
Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle, leading the NFL with 665 rushing yards and six rushing and two receiving touchdowns in five games, but the reunion is the headline, and the role is the bet.
He has handled 90% of the Kansas City Chiefs' red-zone rushes, including 27 carries inside the 20 and 11 inside the five.
The Seattle Seahawks rank second in defensive EPA per play and have gone 35 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, so the ground matchup is legitimately difficult.
Walker still owns six red-zone targets, and the Seahawks have allowed running backs 0.33 receiving touchdowns per game. Kansas City’s fourth-ranked offense should create chances, and Walker gets nearly every high-value backfield touch.
Prop pick #2: Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown
I was around 33% here.
Rashee Rice is out for a second straight game, leaving Xavier Worthy as Kansas City’s clear No. 1 receiver.
Worthy owns a team-high 19.7% target share, played 81% of the snaps, and caught seven passes for 73 yards last week. The scoring usage is better than the box score suggests: Worthy has four red-zone targets, two inside the 10, and has already converted a designed handoff near the goal line this season.
Seattle ranks second in defensive passing EPA, but linebackers Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt are out. Andy Reid can use motion, crossers, and backfield action to isolate Worthy against replacement underneath defenders.
At 29%, his expanded role and rushing access create enough paths to six.
Prop pick #3: Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions
Sam Darnold has thrown an interception in all four games since returning from his glute injury: seven picks on 147 attempts, one every 21 throws.
The market still prices him as a coin flip to throw one, the same as Patrick Mahomes. Why?
Darnold ranks 28th of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, and Seattle sits 30th in rushing EPA, so this offense lives on his arm. He has averaged nearly 37 attempts over that stretch and taken 13 sacks in his last three games.
Now he faces a Kansas City defense ranked third in EPA per play that has forced nine turnovers in five games. Even at last season’s 2.9% interception rate, 35 attempts make a pick about 64% likely.
While I'm not as bullish as the raw numbers suggest, there's still an edge.
- Prop picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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