Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 7

Our Week 7 prop picks are locked and loaded, with Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson spearheading our favorite plays as a receiving threat against the San Francisco 49ers.

Head to our NFL picks page for the full menu of expert selections this week.

Week 7 prop picks at a glance

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Expert NFL prop picks

Steelers vs. Saints

• Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France)
• TV: NFL Network
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Rico Dowdle 30+ rushing yards

I recommend this Over up to 34+ rushing yards because I’m expecting Dowdle to carve out a slightly larger role in the backfield for this favorable Week 7 matchup.

Backfield mate Jaylen Warren handled a career-high 211 carries last season, and his 63 totes over the past four games were also the largest workload across a four-week stretch in his career.

Pittsburgh head coach and offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy now has the luxury to spell Warren more frequently because of Dowdle’s versatility. Plus, McCarthy has been a believer in Dowdle dating back to their time with the Dallas Cowboys.

Check out our full Steelers vs. Saints predictions!

49ers vs. Falcons

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Bijan Robinson 25+ receiving yards

The Falcons’ path to victory is paved by running back Bijan Robinson. 

Robinson isn’t just a threat to grind out gains on the ground, but also is a catch-and-run weapon in this offense.

Robinson did finish with negative receiving yards on just two catches in the loss to Chicago last Sunday, which is helping slim his yardage total for Week 7 (had 30.5 O/U in Week 6). The game before, however, he was targeted seven times for four grabs and 32 receiving yards.

Robinson is a workhorse for Atlanta and could see an even bigger snap share with fellow RB Brian Robinson dealing with a hamstring injury.

Week 7 projections for Robinson’s receiving output all sit north of 30 yards, with a ceiling of 39. My number comes out to 33+ receiving yards.

Check out our full 49ers vs. Falcons predictions!

Bengals vs. Ravens

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Prop pick: Joe Burrow 25+ passing completions

I'd play Joe Burrow's completions prop up to 26+.

Burrow owns the highest completion rate in NFL history at 68.6% and is completing a league-high 71.4% of his passes this season. He's also been dinking and dunking more, ranking 24th in intended air yards per attempt.

That style fits this prop perfectly. Burrow has completed 25+ passes in three of five games this season and averages 25.4 completions in 11 career meetings with Baltimore, clearing 25+ in six of them.

Check out our full Bengals vs. Ravens predictions!

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Shawn Krest

Prop pick: Chuba Hubbard 25+ receiving yards

If Chuba Hubbard isn’t able to make any progress against the Bucs’ stiff run defense, look for him to contribute as a safety valve for Young.

Hubbard’s targets, catches, and yards per game are all up over last season, as is his catch rate. He already has a 30-yard reception this season, which is the longest by any Panthers tight end this season.

If Tampa takes away receiving leader Tetairoa McMillan and Bucs edge rusher David Walker continues his strong season, look for Young to dump off to Hubbard frequently.

Check out our full Buccaneers vs. Panthers predictions!

Giants vs. Texans

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Nick Galaida

Prop pick: J.J. McCarthy 0.5 interceptions

J.J. McCarthy had the second-highest interception-worthy throw rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, behind only Tua Tagovailoa, who is no longer an NFL starter.

McCarthy had four interception-worthy throws in the fourth quarter last week against a Saints defense that mostly played backups in prevent. Facing a talented Houston defense, McCarthy is very likely to throw at least one interception.

Check out our full Giants vs. Texans predictions!

Colts vs. Vikings

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Tom Oldfield

Prop pick: Kyler Murray Over 199.5 passing yards

Murray’s start with the Vikings has been bumpy, but he’s found a rhythm with 225+ passing yards in back-to-back games.

The ceiling is even higher here, with a healthier supporting cast for this Week 7 battle, and chunk plays are on offer against a banged-up Indy defense, especially with Addison’s ability to stretch the field (average depth of target: 14.2 yards). 

Indoor conditions play to Murray’s strengths, and he’s gone past this number in his last eight home outings in Arizona and Minnesota (excluding the brief start in this year’s season opener).

Check out our full Colts vs. Vikings predictions!

Dolphins vs. Jets

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Quinn Allen

Prop pick: Ollie Gordon II Over 49.5 rushing yards

I'll shift over to Miami here with young running back Ollie Gordon. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has been impressive, averaging five yards per carry this season.

With De'Von Achane out for the season, Gordon has every chance to cook, and he's done just that since Achane's injury. The 22-year-old has exploded for 88 and 100 yards in his last two games, scoring both times. 

The Jets are 23rd in run defense, allowing a concerning 123 yards per game. With the Dolphins much more efficient on the ground, expect Miami to lean on Gordon, who shouldn't have any issues surpassing 50 yards. 

Check out our full Dolphins vs. Jets predictions!

Browns vs. Titans

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Shawn Krest

Prop pick: Cam Ward Under 27 passing attempts

The Titans got their first win last week and seem to be taking steps to solve the problems plaguing their offense: more run game, less Cam Ward.

The top pick in the 2025 NFL draft is in a sophomore slump, ranking among the league's bottom four QBs, according to PFF. Last week, he threw 22 passes for 11 completions and 102 yards, while RB Tony Pollard hit season highs in rushes and yards.

In their previous closest loss — by four to Philly — Ward had 20 attempts and 13 completions. Look for Tennessee to lean on the ground game and reduce Ward's workload. 

Check out our full Browns vs. Titans predictions!

Broncos vs. Cardinals

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Prop pick: R.J. Harvey 25+ receiving yards

I’ll play this up to 27+ yards. Harvey's average target comes 2.6 yards behind the line of scrimmage, but he’s generated 231 yards after the catch.

Payton doesn’t need to scheme Harvey downfield to clear this number. He just needs to get him touches in space. 

The matchup helps, too. Arizona linebackers Mack Wilson Sr. and Jack Gibbens rank near the bottom of PFF’s coverage grades. Harvey has cleared 25 receiving yards in three of five games, and another four- or five-catch workload should put him right in range.

Check out our full Broncos vs. Cardinals predictions!

Packers vs. Lions

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Jared Goff 26+ passing completions

Returning to Goff’s slow starts, his ranks in adjusted EPA per play and success rate skyrocket from 30th and 24th in the first quarter to first- and second-ranked marks across the final three frames.

Of course, Goff threw for 8.7 yards per attempt with a 76.0 completion percentage in the first quarter over the past two seasons, too.

Check out our full Packers vs. Lions predictions!

Rams vs. Raiders

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Tre Tucker 40+ receiving yards

Raiders receiver Tre Tucker has hit this benchmark in each of the past five games while catching 22 of 31 targets for 344 yards. His high-end 15.5 yards per reception and 14.8 aDoT are his highest marks since his rookie season, and Las Vegas quarterback Kirk Cousins also sports an elite 120.1 NFL passer rating when targeting Tucker.

This total is in play up to 43 receiving yards, and it's also another opportunity to target the reeling Los Angeles pass defense.

Check out our full Rams vs. Raiders predictions!

Chiefs vs. Seahawks

• Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Kenneth Walker III 20+ receiving yards

Kenneth Walker III has been able to roll over some ho-hum run-stop units to start his Kansas City career, but he'll be getting the stiffest test from his old pals in the Emerald City.

If the Week 7 projections hold up, Walker will play a bigger role in the KC passing game on Sunday night.

With the Seahawks shutting down the ground game, Andy Reid will find ways to get the ball into Walker’s hands, including using him as a valuable check-down option in the passing game.

Seattle allowed 31 receiving yards to Denver RB R.J. Harvey last week and enters Week 7 having surrendered the 10th-most targets and sixth-most receptions to opposing running backs this season.

Game models for Walker are pass-positive, ranging from 18 yards to a high of 26 yards, with most models north of 20 yards receiving. My number comes out to 23 yards through the air.

Check out our full Chiefs vs. Seahawks predictions!

Cowboys vs. Eagles

• Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/ABC
• Analyst: Josh Inglis

Prop pick: Tanner McKee 2+ touchdown passes

Not to knock Hurts and his health issues, but the gap between him and McKee may not be that big.

Hurts struggled over his last three games before going on IR, while McKee was solid in last Sunday’s start and now gets an easier matchup against this Dallas defense.

Not only does McKee have a downfield threat in Smith, but he also has a capable pass-catching RB in Barkley and a reliable TE in Dallas Goedert.

The Cowboys allow an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, and their red-zone defense has surrendered TDs on 66.7% of opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line.

Projections are tough to pin down given the limited data on the Eagles' backup, but some models have McKee projected for as many as 1.5 touchdown passes. With 2+ passing touchdowns offering a healthy return, I’m willing to take a shot on the Stanford product.

Check out our full Cowboys vs. Eagles predictions!

Pages related to this topic