Our Chiefs vs. Seahawks computer picks highlight player props for Sunday Night Football, with Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold leading the way along with their top receiving options ahead of a key prime-time matchup.
Xavier Worthy is an appealing receiving option for Kansas City in our projections. On the Seattle side, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and A.J. Barner should grab your attention among the Seahawks' skill-position players.
It's all part of our NFL picks ahead of the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from Lumen Field (NBC).
Chiefs vs Seahawks computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Chiefs |
 Seahawks |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes o211.5 passing yards 52% |
Sam Darnold o224.5 passing yards 51% |
| Patrick Mahomes o16.5 rushing yards 57% |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba o89.5 receiving yards 53% |
| Xavier Worthy o49.5 receiving yards 49% |
AJ Barner o2.5 receptions made 58% |
| Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown 54% |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown 43% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Chiefs computer picks
Patrick Mahomes Over 211.5 passing yards (52%)
Projection: 229.3 passing yards
There's a sizable 17.8-yard gap between the passing yardage total for Patrick Mahomes and our projection. The Seattle Seahawks' defense always presents a tough challenge, but Mahomes is averaging 261.8 passing yards per game this season.
🔥 Trade Mahomes passing yards now
Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 rushing yards (57%)
Projection: 22.1 rushing yards
Mahomes gives the Chiefs another path to production with his ability to scramble and pick up yards on the ground. There's another appealing gap of 5.6 yards between his total and our projection. He's cleared this number twice this season, and the Seahawks have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Seattle's pass rush could create opportunities for Mahomes to escape the pocket and gain yards with his legs. He doesn't need a big rushing performance to reach this modest total.
🔥 Trade Mahomes rushing yards now
Xavier Worthy Over 49.5 receiving yards (49%)
Projection: 59.37 receiving yards
Xavier Worthy is another Kansas City pass catcher whose projection sits comfortably above his listed receiving-yard line. The model forecasts 59.37 yards, giving the Chiefs a second route to production through the air.
Worthy's ability to turn downfield opportunities into chunk gains could be important against Seattle. His projected total leaves room to clear 49.5 yards without requiring an unusually massive performance.
🔥 Trade Worthy receiving yards now
Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown (54%)
Projection: 0.71 touchdown
Kenneth Walker III rounds out the Chiefs' picks with a touchdown projection of 0.71. That forecast gives him a strong position among the team's scoring options, particularly if Kansas City can generate opportunities near the goal line.
Walker's touchdown projection easily leads his teammates, with Worthy the next closest while way down at 0.37.
🏈 Trade Walker III anytime touchdown now
Seahawks computer picks
Sam Darnold Over 224.5 passing yards (51%)
Projection: 236.46 passing yards
Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Sam Darnold's projection is a whopping 12 years clear of his total. If Seattle can maintain a competitive game script, Darnold should have opportunities to move the ball through the air. He's fresh off a 278-yard outing against the Denver Broncos.
🔥 Trade Darnold passing yards now
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 89.5 receiving yards (53%)
Projection: 97.53 receiving yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected for 97.53 receiving yards, putting him above the 89.5-yard line. His role as a central part of Seattle's passing attack makes him a natural candidate here.
The projection points to a productive outing if Darnold can consistently find his top receiving option. Smith-Njigba's target volume gives him a path to building yardage throughout the game. He's averaging 10.8 targets per game.
🔥 Trade Smith-Njigba receiving yards now
A.J. Barner Over 2.5 receptions made (58%)
Projection: 3.02 receptions
A.J. Barner is projected to finish with 3.02 receptions, clearing his 2.5-catch line. That makes the Seattle tight end an appealing way to diversify the Seahawks' selections beyond their leading wide receiver.
The Chiefs are tied for the fourth-most receptions given up to tight ends this season.
🔥 Trade Barner receptions made now
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown (43%)
Projection: 0.57 touchdown
Smith-Njigba's target volume is a significant factor here too. He's been given 17 red-zone targets thus far in the season, and Smith-Njigba has soaked up 27.5% of the team's red-zone looks.
He's turned those opportunities into six touchdowns. His immense workload also includes 16 targets during Seattle's last game against the Broncos.
🏈 Trade Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown now
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