It’s Halloween Week, which means it's time for my annual “Trick or Treat” analogy for shopping the odds when making your NFL picks.
If a house has elite candy, you don’t want to wait and risk it running out. You make that place your first stop of the night to get those full-sized bars.
However, there’s value in hitting up some less-traveled houses later in the evening, as folks are more likely to dump their leftovers into your bag at 8:45 p.m., maximizing your bounty.
I take the same spooky approach to the NFL Week 8 odds, jumping on some tasty spreads and totals now… then waiting for market moves on others later in the week.
Here are my NFL predictions to trade now and others to trade later.
NFL predictions: Week 8 trade now, trade later picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Trade now or trade later? |
|---|---|
| Jaguars -7.5 | Trade NOW |
| Buccaneers -1.5 | Trade later |
| Titans at Bengals Over 47 | Trade NOW |
| Raiders at Jets Under 44.5 | Trade later |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Colts at Jaguars (-7.5): Trade Now
The Jacksonville Jaguars are fresh and refocused off a bye after a grueling opening slate that had the team away from Duval County for four of their first six games of 2026, including two weeks in the UK.
This matchup with the Indianapolis Colts is the Jags’ first true home game since Week 3.
As for the Colts, this is the end of their own nasty stretch of the schedule. Indianapolis is playing back-to-back road games, its third roadie in four weeks, and its fifth away game in seven weeks with a UK trip in Week 4.
This franchise is falling apart at the seams and is coming off an ugly loss at Minnesota on Sunday. The Colts averaged 3.7 yards per play in Week 7 and now face a Jacksonville defense ranked Top 10 in DVOA by FTN.
The Jaguars offense is also rating out well, sitting Top 10 in EPA per play and success rate. Indy did its best against the Vikings’ pop-gun attack but has been blown away by far weaker offenses than the Jags this year.
I’m grabbing Jacksonville as low as I can, calling for this spread to go to -8 and beyond.
Falcons at Buccaneers (-1.5): Trade Later
These NFC South members put on a show in Week 7. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers squashed Carolina by 30 points, while the Atlanta Falcons blew up San Francisco’s undefeated record.
Tampa Bay had Baker Mayfield back under center Sunday, and this looked like the best two-way team in the NFL, if only for one afternoon.
The Bucs had 21 first downs, went 7-for-12 on third downs, and picked up 5.4 yards per play. Tampa Bay is a top-5 defense and showed its fangs in Week 7, with five sacks, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries.
Markets opened with the Buccaneers as 1.5-point home chalk, but some are sitting at -1, with early action eating up Atlanta’s win over the 49ers. If you want to fade the Falcons in a letdown spot, wait and see if you can get the Buccos at PK or perhaps as a home pup later in the week.
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Titans at Bengals (Over 47): Trade Now
The Cincinnati Bengals took 30 minutes to get going, but once they did … yikes. Cincinnati scored all 35 points in the second half of its big divisional victory at Baltimore in Week 7.
The Bengals averaged 7.0 yards per play and went 5-for-5 in the red zone against a very good Ravens defense. Cincinnati has put up 27 or more points in four of its six games, and the Bengals get to sink their teeth into the Tennessee Titans in Week 8.
Tennessee allowed almost 500 total yards to the other Ohio team, losing 27-24 to Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns picked up 7.4 yards per play and finished 5-for-11 on third downs.
Cincinnati’s offense will do the lion’s share of the scoring, and its defense will likely give up some gains, too. The Bengals still allowed the Ravens to go 9-for-16 on third downs and own the third-worst third-down defense in the land.
This opening total sits right on the key number of 47, with some other shops ticking up. I like the Over before it hits the next key stop of 48 O/U.
Raiders at Jets (Under 44.5): Trade Later
The Las Vegas Raiders venture to East Rutherford for an early start against the New York Jets.
The last time we saw the Silver & Black play a 10 a.m. PT contest out East, they were a 17-point no-show at New England in Week 5. The Raiders will also be playing in just their second outdoor game of the season.
Las Vegas gave up a bunch of points to the L.A. Rams in Week 7, while the Jets defense made Miami look like an actual football team for once, allowing 28 points to an offense dwelling in the advanced-metric sewers.
As for New York’s offense, coordinator Frank Reich is running the NFL equivalent of rice cakes: stale and flavorless. The red-zone play-calling is gross, with the unit sitting among the worst in TD rate inside the 20-yard line.
This number sits on the high side of the key total of 44, so it won’t take much to move to 45 or higher. We've already seen that jump at select shops on Sunday night. I’d kick the tires on the Under if this number climbs.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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