The Monday night doubleheader kicks off with the banged-up Buffalo Bills hitting the road to take on a well-rested Atlanta Falcons team.
With an expected uptick in involvement and a favorable passing setup, Kyle Pitts leads the way in my Bills vs. Falcons predictions.
Check out my full NFL picks for October 13 — kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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Bills vs Falcons prediction
Bills vs Falcons Best bet: Kyle Pitts Over 3.5 receptions (-115)
The Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back after a prime-time loss, but the Atlanta Falcons — rested off a bye — aren’t an easy out.
This game is indoors, which typically boosts passing efficiency, and Michael Penix Jr. looked sharp in Week 4. With Kyle Pitts possibly more involved this week, it’s time to take another look at Atlanta's tight end.
Pitts is quietly seeing nearly a 20% target share and is lining up in the slot or out wide on 74% of snaps — more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. He’s coming off a 5-catch, 70-yard, 1-TD performance on just five targets and has hit his Over on this reception prop in every game so far.
An indoor matchup at home shouldn't hurt those numbers, and a possible absence for Bills linebacker Matt Milano — who plays a key role in covering tight ends — only strengthens the case. Also worth noting: WR2 Darnell Mooney has yet to practice this week, a bad sign coming off a bye.
Pitts' anytime TD price at +220 or better is appealing, but the real value is in his reception prop. If the Falcons are trailing and Mooney is sidelined, it's hard to see Pitts not clearing a modest receptions total.
Bills vs Falcons MNF same-game parlay
The injury to Dalton Kincaid has shuffled some things around, but with the TE1 now out of MNF, there are going to be more targets for Keon Coleman in an indoor game.
Both coaches said this week that they want to stay away from being too cute, so that sets up well for Coleman in the play-action game and Pitts to have a role near the goal line after scoring his first TD in Week 4.
Coleman also has to get back into his coach's good graces after getting sat for the first series last week in a loss to the Patriots.
Bills vs Falcons SGP +900
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Keon Coleman anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Non-WR Profit Play
Let's add the two best backs on both teams to this TD parlay and push those odds to +2,200
Buffalo will need to reset after last week, and James Cook will be more involved.
Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson might be the second-best running back in football, and he will get all he can handle Monday night.
Bills vs Falcons SGP
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Keon Coleman anytime touchdown
- James Cook anytime touchdown
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Bills vs Falcons game predictions
Bills vs Falcons moneyline prediction
The last time the Bills lost back-to-back games was Week 5 of last season, and coming out of the bye last year, the Falcons lost 17-13 to the Chargers as a 1-point home favorite.
With Atlanta coming off the bye, the Bills' ML is certainly anything but a lock, but the loss on Sunday night has to be a motivating factor, and Josh Allen is 8-1 SU inside a dome over his career.
Final score prediction: Bills 27 - Falcons 24
Bills vs Falcons spread prediction
Atlanta lost as a 5-point favorite in Carolina in Week 3 in a bad 30-0 loss, but it has been said that there were some communication issues with OC Zac Robinson, which is why he has moved from the booth to field level.
Michael Penix had his best game as a starter with Robinson on the field calling the plays. I'd prefer taking the rested team at +4.5.
Bills vs Falcons Over/Under prediction
I get that it's an indoor game, but Atlanta was just shut out two games ago.
I'm not touching it, but I do prefer the Under at 50.
Bills vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Buffalo -4.5 (-110) | Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -230 | Atlanta +190
- Over/Under: Over 50.0 (-110) | Under 50.0 (-110)
Bills vs Falcons betting trend to know
Although he has appeared in just two games vs. the Falcons, Josh Allen's 42.3% completion rate against Atlanta is the worst of any team he has played. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Falcons.
How to watch Bills vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, October 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Learn how to live stream Bills vs. Falcons for free tonight.
Bills vs Falcons latest injuries
Bills vs Falcons weather
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More Bills vs Falcons predictions for Monday Night Football
- Bills vs. Falcons props
- Bills vs. Falcons same game parlay picks
- Bills vs. Falcons anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Bills vs. Falcons computer picks
- Josh Allen prop picks
- Monday Night Football odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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