The Atlanta Falcons come fresh from their bye week with a tough home game against the Buffalo Bills, who are sitting on a 4-1 record and leading their division.
I’ve taken a long look at Josh Allen odds to find the very best ways for you to get involved with the Bills QB on October 13.
Josh Allen prop pick
Josh Allen best bet: Josh Allen Under 226.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
The great thing about the Buffalo Bills is they can beat teams, with or without needing their star QB to throw the football. That’s something they’ll need on Monday Night Football.
This Falcons’ defense has been immense against the pass so far this season. On a per-game basis, there is no other defense in the NFL that has given up fewer passing yards per game than the 135 allowed by Atlanta.
Incidentally, the next team is the Bills themselves. The Falcons are a very strong unit and, in terms of defensive DVOA, are ranked the very best defense in the entire league.
We’ve seen Josh Allen have huge performances before, and with his arm, it’s always a possibility. That said, his line for passing yards on MNF sits at 226.5, a number he’s only covered twice — against the Patriots and Ravens — both teams giving up far more through the air each game.
In the other three games, he’s recorded a maximum of 213 passing yards. With Atlanta being weaker against the run and Buffalo's ground game being so good, the Bills win this game in the trenches.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Under 226.5 passing yards
James Cook Over 15.5 rushing attempts
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
It’s got to be said that +550 feels like value on my Josh Allen Same-Game Parlay. In addition to the best bet, I'm backing James Cook to have Over 15.5 rushing attempts.
He’s exceeded that mark in three of five games this season, and he’s averaged a strong 18 carries per game. Given the strength of the Falcons' defense against the pass, this should be another game in which Cook takes the offense upon his back.
It’s been another season of touchdowns for the quarterback who has already registered three TDs. He managed 14 last season and is currently running slightly behind that rate.
With Cook dominating carries and attention from the defense, it’s going to open up opportunities for Allen, who should be able to find paydirt.
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