Monday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 6 Player Prop Projections for Bills vs Falcons

Our best MNF computer picks for tonight's Bills vs. Falcons matchup, including Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta pass attack putting in work.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Oct 13, 2025 • 09:42 ET • 4 min read
Bills vs Falcons computer picks Michael Penix Jr.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) drops to throw during a game.

The first leg of tonight's MNF doubleheader sees two potent offenses square off as the Buffalo Bills visit the Atlanta Falcons.

Our NFL player prop projections have identified some great values in the MFN props... including a ton of Overs for both passing attacks.

Bills vs Falcons computer picks for Monday Night Football

Vikings Bills Vikings Falcons
Allen o227.5 pass -110 Penix o223.5 pass -110
Cook o13.5 rec -110 Robinson u73.5 rush -110
Shakir o47.5 rec -110 London o72.5 rec -105
Kincaid o39.5 rec -110 Pitts o43.5 rec -110

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Bills MNF computer picks

Josh Allen Over 227.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 245.83 yards

Allen went for 253 yards last week, and our projections like him to approach that number again tonight, comfortably topping his prop total.

Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+165) - Shows a small amount of value.

James Cook III Over 13.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 18.52 yards

Our projections don't expect Cook to top his rushing total... but it does like him to finish above his receiving line tonight.

Alternate-total bet
20+ yards (+160) - Also has a small level of value.

Khalil Shakir Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 60.43 yards

Shakir has gone for 45+ yards in four of his first five games (including 60+ twice), and we're forecasting him to finish around 60 yards again tonight.

Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+165) - This price is showing strong value.

Dalton Kincaid Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 41.99 yards

Our projections put the Bills TE right around his number tonight, the third time in his last four games he would go Over this number.


More Monday Night Football picks from Covers


Falcons MNF computer picks

Michael Penix Jr. Over 223.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 254.48 yards

Penix is averaging more than 300 yards per game in two home games, and our projections expect him to have another strong home performance tonight.

Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+180) - This prop is showing a lot of value.

Bijan Robinson Under 73.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 63.64 yards

The dual-threat back isn't expected to have a big rushing output tonight, as we project him to finish Under his total.

Drake London Over 72.5 receiving yards (-105)

Projection: 84.44 yards

After starting the season in a funk, London went for 110 yards in his last game — and our projections see another big game tonight.

Alternate-total bet
80+ yards (+125) - Also shows strong value.

Kyle Pitts Sr. Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 50.7 yards

Pitts is averaging 51.3 yards per game so far, and we expect him to finish around that number again tonight.

Alternate-total bet
50+ yards (+130) - Shows some good value.

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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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