Two programs desperate for a win collide today in Week 6, and my USC vs. Penn State prediction is that the Trojans will prevail at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa., on Saturday, Oct. 10. Penn State is the 1.5-point favorite with a 53% win probability.
Find out why in my Week 6 college football picks below. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. For the full slate, see our Week 6 Top 25 predictions and best bets.
TOP PICK
Who will win USC vs Penn State today? Pick: USC moneyline
I'm on USC moneyline at 52% or below, and against the spread at any plus number. It's time to buy low on a quality team that's struggled to cover the spread lately. Our Week 6 college football moneyline picks also like USC in this spot.
Penn State is overvalued, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to the step back this program is taking after botching the hiring cycle and ending up with Matt Campbell too late in the process.
The offense isn't effective (103rd in success rate on standard downs), and the defense has taken a step back (49th in EPA per play).
Jayden Maiava leads a USC offense that will be the best unit on the field by a wide margin (eighth in success rate). Although the defense is a concern, it's mitigated against a PSU offense with an even worse ranking in success rate (99th, USC 70th defensively).
COVERS INTEL: Penn State struggles to defend the run (133rd in EPA per rush, 135th in rushing explosiveness allowed). USC will move the ball both on the ground and through the air with Maiava (9.1 yards per attempt).
USC vs Penn State Over/Under pick: Under 55.5
Neither offense is in any particular hurry, and the leisurely tempo should temper scoring expectations. USC ranks 102nd in snaps per minute (28.0), and Penn State is 83rd (27.1).
Penn State lacks a reliable ground game and has no difference-makers at wide receiver to compensate.
Koby Howard (28.7 yards per reception, team-high 344 receiving yards) provided some much-needed juice, but he'll miss a third consecutive contest.
USC also has pass-catching injuries to worry about, with star freshmen Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman listed as questionable after missing last week.
Penn State excels in coverage and will provide resistance if the Trojans are shorthanded again.
USC vs Penn State combo
Penn State just doesn't have many buttons to press offensively. The offensive line gets no push (118th in line yards), and there are no impact players at running back or receiver. See more in our favorite college football combos for Week 6.
That'll lead to a low-scoring game from the get-go, and USC can capitalize on its superior offensive game plan, personnel, and execution.
USC vs Penn State combo
- USC moneyline
- Under 55.5
- First half Under 27.5
USC vs Penn State prop: USC team total Over 27.5
The most sure thing in this game is USC's offense. The Trojans can cover this team total in a variety of ways, and this contest doesn't need to turn into a shootout for them to find the end zone.
King Miller (3.68 yards after contact per attempt) and Waymond Jordan (Big Ten-leading 37% missed tackles forced rate) will eat against a defense that surrendered a whopping 413 rushing yards and four scores last week to Northwestern.
That provides USC's offense with a high floor, and Penn State doesn't have the pass rush to bother Maiava enough in the pocket.
USC vs Penn State market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on tonight's matchup. Use the widget below to help inform your USC vs. Penn State prediction.
More Week 6 college football picks
- Today's top college football picks: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Brad Powers' Week 6 power rankings: best bets, upgrades and downgrades
- College football Week 6 moneyline picks
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 6
- College football AI predictions Week 6: ATS and Over/Under picks for every game
- College football Week 6 picks against the spread
- Our favorite college football combos for Week 6
- College football Top 25 predictions and best bets: Week 6
- Our favorite Group of 6 predictions: Week 6
- College football player props: Week 6
- Top picks: 8-6, +1.31 units
- Combos: 6-8, +19.97 units
USC vs Penn State odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: USC +1.5 | Penn State -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (50%) | Under 55.5 (56%)
- Moneyline: USC 50% | Penn State 55%
For the full slate of Week 6 college football matchups, check out our Week 6 college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
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USC vs Penn State weather
Weather won't impact today's game.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
USC vs Penn State trend to know
Penn State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of less than a touchdown. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs. Penn State.
How to watch USC vs Penn State
| Location | Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
USC vs Penn State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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