The Vikings visit the Saints this Sunday, Oct. 11 at 1 p.m. ET, with Minnesota favored by 2.5 points at Caesars Superdome as new Hall of Fame inductee Drew Brees enters New Orleans' Ring of Honor.
My Vikings vs. Saints predictions andNFL picks back the road favorite to spoil the party, with Aaron Jones playing his part.
TOP Pick
Vikings vs Saints prediction: Vikings -2.5
I'm on the Minnesota Vikings up to -3 at the New Orleans Saints. I make Minnesota 3.4 points better on a neutral field, and home-field advantage is only worth 1.5-2 points.
People are clowning Minnesota's offense, fairly, but the Vikings are undefeated anyway. If that unit finally clicks, opponents are in trouble, especially New Orleans, which has the worst defensive success rate in the NFL.
Also, I'm also not giving up on first-year Vikings QB Kyler Murray. He's played only 58.3% of Minnesota's snaps in a new system, and Justin Jefferson is back at practice. I'm expecting Kyler's best game yet.
COVERS INTEL: Minnesota has better line of scrimmage win rates across all four categories: pass-blocking, pass-rush, run-blocking, and run-stopping. Winning at the point of attack is one of the most predictive aspects of handicapping football.
Vikings vs Saints combo
I'm using Minnesota's moneyline instead of the spread because I'd rather increase my combo's win probability than worry about the Vikings winning by margin.
I'm also counting on a "get-right game" from Minnesota's offense, including a touchdown from RB Aaron Jones.
New Orleans plays at the NFL's fastest offensive pace, and the Saints have allowed three opponents to score 31+ points. If Minnesota gets ahead, NOLA will be forced to play catch-up. That creates more opportunities for Minnesota's attacking defense to contribute to the Over with a pick-six or strip-sack touchdown.
Vikings vs Saints combo
- Minnesota moneyline
- Over 42.5
- Aaron Jones anytime touchdown
Vikings vs Saints touchdown scorer: Aaron Jones
I'd trade Aaron Jones' anytime touchdown probability up to 55% because NOLA's defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including an NFL-worst nine rushing touchdowns. Jones is also Minnesota's primary ball-carrier with Jordan Mason on IR.
Jones is a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield, and Minnesota's other weapons should create favorable one-on-one matchups against New Orleans' linebackers.
Murray's mobility also makes it harder for the Saints to key on Jones in short yardage situations. Between his workload and receiving role, Jones has multiple paths to score.
- Top picks: 5-8, -3.55 units
- Combos: 4-9, +8.07 units
Vikings vs Saints odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Vikings -2.5 | Saints +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (54%) | Under 41.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Vikings 59% | Saints 47%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Vikings vs Saints weather
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Vikings vs Saints trend to know
Minnesota has covered the spread in four consecutive road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Saints.
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How to watch Vikings vs Saints
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Vikings vs Saints latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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