Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the prior week and my best spot bets.
Week 5 saw my power-rating best bets go 1-1. This week, I have some large discrepancies between my power ratings and the college football odds involving the biggest games of the week that you can still take advantage of in this week's college football picks.
Week 6 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 93.94 | 93.94 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 92.28 | 93.28 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 93.40 | 92.40 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Texas | 91.57 | 91.57 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 89.65 | 90.65 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Alabama | 87.38 | 89.88 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Indiana | 88.53 | 89.03 | +0.5 |
| 8 | LSU | 88.16 | 88.66 | +0.5 |
| 9 | Oregon | 87.08 | 86.58 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Florida | 85.71 | 83.21 | -2.5 |
Brad Powers Week 6 top picks
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Brad Powers Week 6 power ratings
Texas -7.5 vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 10, 3:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Texas an 11.5-point favorite, the biggest disparity of the week!
I don’t think either team is an outlier in my ratings. Despite being No. 1 in the AP Poll, I only have Texas No. 4 in my power ratings. Similarly, despite a 2-2 record, I still have Oklahoma No. 13 in my power ratings.
The market traded heavily on Oklahoma vs. Georgia in its last game, as the spread went from Oklahoma +14 to +11 in the final 48 hours leading up to kickoff.
That money turned out to be wrong, as the Sooners were blasted 41-13. The main culprits were turnovers and poor QB play.
Turnovers are mostly random except when you have consistently poor quarterback play. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer ranks just No. 68 in QBR and has eight turnover-worthy plays this season (12th most nationally). I don’t expect him to suddenly play clean football against a Texas defense that ranks No. 16 in Havoc.
Finally, I don’t hold Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian in as high regard as most. However, I think he's far superior to Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables. This has played out on the field, with Texas winning 23-6, 34-3, and 49-0 in three of the four meetings between the two coaches.
Oregon -11 vs. UCLA (Oct. 10, 3:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Oregon a 13.5-point favorite, and I would trade this up to -12.5.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has returned to practice but is unlikely to play. Despite Moore being a projected Top 10 NFL Draft pick, I only downgraded Oregon’s power rating by 2.5 points. The market seems to have downgraded Oregon much more.
Dylan Raiola is the best backup quarterback in the country. He was a solid starter at Nebraska for two years. Two weeks ago, he came off the bench after Moore's injury and led Oregon to a 41-27 win at USC. It was a high-pressure game the Ducks desperately needed, and Raiola had a 98.8 QBR!
While it has been a great start for UCLA and new head coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins have not played a team currently in the Top 60 of my power ratings. Most of their opponents are way down this year, including California, San Diego State, and Maryland. That is inflating their metrics.
The best team UCLA has faced so far has been Purdue, and the Boilermakers threw for 425 yards and scored 38 points against them. I expect Oregon’s offense to have a ton of success.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Northwestern up 2.5 points
Northwestern upset Penn State 34-13 as a 3-point underdog in its first game at its new stadium. With new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly using a wide variety of formations, Northwestern ran for 413 yards. The Wildcats allowed just 48 rushing yards and dominated the line of scrimmage.
They've now covered all four games this season by an average of 17.8 points per game. My power ratings project Northwestern to be 6-1 when it travels to Oregon on Oct. 31. Its season win total was only 5.5.
📈 Missouri up 2.5 points
Missouri upset No. 8 Florida 45-17 as a 5.5-point underdog. The game was tied 10-10 late in the first half, but Missouri would outscore the Gators 35-0 over the next 21 minutes.
Missouri outgained Florida by 235 yards. Florida came into the game averaging 533 yards of offense per game, but Missouri surprisingly held the Gators to just 325.
📈 Wake Forest up 2.5 points
Fresh off an upset over Louisville as a double-digit underdog, Wake Forest was even more impressive last week. The Demon Deacons beat Stanford 57-3, covering the spread by 39.5 points. It was their largest margin of victory ever in an ACC game.
Wake has now covered its last three games by an average of 20.2 points per game. My power ratings project the Demon Deacons to be favored in six of their last seven games.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Pittsburgh down 4.0 points
Pittsburgh beat Virginia Tech 35-33 as a 1-point underdog. However, the Panthers lost starting QB Mason Heintschel for the season to injury. His backup, Holden Geriner, is a major downgrade with limited career experience.
In addition, Pitt should have lost to Virginia Tech, as it was outgained by 204 yards. The Panthers benefited from a plus-four turnover margin and a missed Virginia Tech field goal on the final play.
📉 San Diego State down 3.5 points
San Diego State upset Texas State 31-29 as a 10-point underdog. Yet, I downgraded the Aztecs significantly in my power ratings. First, it was the most misleading final of last weekend. San Diego State was outgained by 326 yards! The Aztecs got a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown and a 32-yard interception return touchdown in the second half.
More importantly, San Diego State was missing 13 players due to a mumps outbreak within the program, and its top two running backs were out due to injury.
📉 Virginia down 3.0 points
Virginia was destroyed by Florida State 38-7. There was nothing fluky about the result, as the Cavaliers were outgained by 259 yards and dominated at the line of scrimmage, getting outrushed 281-37.
Quarterback Beau Pribula did not look healthy, finishing with just a 13.8 QBR. In addition, the market went from Virginia -2.5 to pick'em late in the week, indicating the more sophisticated money was against the Cavaliers.
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