College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions: Week 6

Colby Marchio - Contributor at Covers.com
Colby Marchio • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 9, 2026 , 02:00 PM ET • 4 min read

The dogs were barking loud in Week 5. Can they keep it rolling in Week 6? I’ve sniffed out three underdogs in spots I absolutely love to pull off the upset. Let’s dig in!

Gunner Stockton Georgia Bulldogs SEC college football underdogs
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Gunner Stockton runs against Vanderbilt at Sanford Stadium.

After another perfect Week 5 (3-0 straight-up), it’s time to run it back with my Week 6 college football underdog picks!

I’ve found three underdogs with some serious bite on this week’s slate: Tulsa, West Virginia, and Georgia. All three have a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset, and I’m ready to back them.

Before you dive in, check out all of our college football picks for Week 6 action.

CFB Week 6 underdog picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
 Tulsa Tulsa 48%
 West Virginia West Virginia  43%
 Georgia Georgia 49%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Tulsa Tulsa (vs. Navy)

Kalshi probability: 48%

The Tulsa Hurricanes are coming off back-to-back losses, including a brutal overtime loss to North Texas last Thursday and a 34-6 beatdown from Arkansas the week prior.

Those losses should have Tulsa ready to bounce back against Navy, a 1-3 team that's yet to be tested this season. Navy’s lone win came against Towson, a football powerhouse your grandfather always references (satire for the people at home)

We all know military academies love the triple option, with over 66% of Navy’s offense coming on the ground. Tulsa has done a solid job against the run, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush, which ranks 33rd nationally. The Hurricanes have also faced plenty of run-heavy teams, seeing roughly 39 rushing attempts per game while Navy averages 41.

Tulsa did allow over 200 rushing yards against North Texas, but held Arkansas to just 132. I’m expecting the Hurricanes to clean up that mess on the road and come out on top against the Midshipmen.

West Virginia West Virginia (vs. Arizona)

Kalshi probability: 43%

There are so many things going in favor of the West Virginia Mountaineers, without even mentioning anything football-related. For starters, the Arizona Wildcats travel across two time zones, then have a 9 a.m. local time kickoff in Tucson. Not to mention, the Wildcats' Week 5 kickoff was their latest start time of the season.

Now for the football-related reasons. Who has Arizona played aside from BYU? Nobody. Meanwhile, West Virginia has endured Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. Sadly, the Mountaineers managed to secure just one win across those three games, beating the Cavaliers 38-27 as 11.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats lean pretty heavily on their passing game, with nearly 53% of their plays coming through the air. This Arizona air attack draws a West Virginia defensive unit that has struggled a bit to lock down opposing passing games.

Considering how little the Wildcats' offense has been tested compared to a Mountaineers defense that has been tested over its last three games, head coach Rich Rodriguez should have his boys cleaned up and ready to roll Saturday afternoon.

Georgia Georgia (vs. Alabama)

Kalshi probability: 49%

It feels so wrong writing about the Georgia Bulldogs as an underdog, but they're the right side in my eyes, as this is easily the best defensive unit in college football. The Bulldogs are allowing 16 points per game while giving up under 280 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

I have a lot of respect for Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell, but what defense has prepared this sophomore quarterback for this moment? Kentucky gave Russell the most problems, holding him to 188 yards through the air while picking him off twice, but Alabama still came out on top 45-17. If he has a game like that against Georgia, the Crimson Tide are not winning by 28.

Even with Georgia only playing Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, this still looks like one of the more complete teams in college football. Plus, I would much rather back Kirby Smart in a big game over Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is in for a wake-up call.

P.S. This matchup opened back in June with the Bulldogs favored by 2.5.

Week 6 underdog combo

Tulsa Tulsa

West Virginia West Virginia 

Georgia Georgia 

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colby Marchio
Betting Analyst

Colby Marchio is a two-time DePaul alum and former Division 1 (club) baseball player who has been sports betting since 2019. Since graduating in 2021, he has worked throughout the media circuit, hosting and appearing on various television and radio shows while making countless guest appearances discussing Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, and the National Football League.

A self-proclaimed numbers nerd, Colby may enjoy digging through the data even more than winning itself. That passion is why his two favorite sports to cover are college basketball and Major League Baseball. 

As for his favorite sportsbook, it is whichever one has the best price, or whichever one is not taxing him as an Illinois resident. 

You can find all of his plays and more @ColbyMBets on Twitter/X.

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