College Football Player Props: Week 6

Week 6 is here, and I'm looking at five college football player props offering value.

This slate demands a closer look at receivers Jordan Shipp, Amare Thomas, and Hudson Clement, and running backs Justice Haynes and Jeffrey Overton Jr.

Here are my five favorite college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 10.

Best Week 6 college football player props

For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Shipp Over 64.5 receiving yards	51%
Thomas Over 59.5 receiving yards	54%
Haynes Over 81.5 rushing yards	51%
Clement Over 52.5 receiving yards	51%
Overton Jr. Over 72.5 rushing yards	52%

Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Prop pick #1: Jordan Shipp Over 64.5 receiving yards

ProphetX probability: 51%

Jordan Shipp is the standalone WR1 for North Carolina, leading the team in targets (27) and receiving yards (273). He stands to benefit from a pass-funnel matchup against Pittsburgh. 

The Panthers shut down opposing rush attacks, limiting them to 2.0 yards per carry and ranking sixth in EPA per rush allowed. If you can’t run it, you’re forced to throw it — enter Shipp.

Pittsburgh is much more gettable on the back end, checking in at 67th in EPA per pass and 117th in passing explosiveness allowed. Last week saw Virginia Tech rack up an astonishing 434 passing yards and three passing scores.

Shipp averages 2.28 yards per route run and is the best skill player on the Tar Heels, so his exploits will come in handy as the focal point of the game plan.

• Matchup: UNC vs. Pitt
• Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at Noon ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
• TV: ESPN

Prop pick #2: Amare Thomas Over 59.5 receiving yards

ProphetX probability: 54%

Amare Thomas is one of the best receivers in college football, even though he doesn’t get the shine of some of his counterparts. That just creates value on the betting market, where his receiving prop is too low. 

Thomas has averaged 72 receiving yards per game since the start of last season. His prop is discounted this week due to a matchup with Kansas State that looks tough on paper. 

The Wildcats lead the nation in passing success rate allowed, surrendering just 106.3 yards per game. That’s all well and good until you realize that’s a small sample comprised of zero competent passing offense. 

Nicholls State, Washington State, Tulane, and Cincinnati hardly represent a murderers' row. Cincinnati is the toughest bunch, and it only threw the ball 13 times while averaging 8.5 yards per play because the ground game was dominating. 

This is an overrated defense, and the potent Houston passing attack ranked seventh in success rate while playing real competition will capitalize. 

• Matchup: Houston vs. Kansas State
• Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
• TV: FOX

Prop pick #3: Justice Haynes Over 81.5 rushing yards

ProphetX probability: 51%

Weather will heavily impact many of this week’s games, with Hurricane Isaias looming large. One of the games to watch is Duke vs. Georgia Tech, which will see consistent rainfall and sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. 

You’re not passing the ball frequently or effectively in those conditions, so expect the two star running backs to take center stage. That means a healthy dose of Justice Haynes for the Yellow Jackets. 

Haynes is a star, racking up 4.15 yards after contact per attempt and forcing missed tackles on 35.6% of his carries. He pairs that efficiency with heavy volume, handling 20+ touches in every game.

RB2 Malachi Hosley, typically a very strong second option, is listed as out on the availability report. Haynes will see a huge workload in Week 6 given the injury situation and weather report.

• Matchup: Duke vs. Georgia Tech
• Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• TV: ESPN2

Prop pick #4: Hudson Clement Over 52.5 receiving yards

ProphetX probability: 51%

Michigan State is in a world of hurt defensively, dealing with cluster injuries at the cornerback position. NiJhay Burt and Tyran Chappell are set to miss a third game, and starter Tre Bell returned to last week’s contest only to get injured, leaving his Week 6 status up in the air. 

This is already a poor defense (110th in EPA per play), and the secondary is entirely beatable (126th in passing explosiveness allowed). Illinois can take advantage of the situation with its top duo at wideout, Collin Dixon and Hudson Clement. 

A former West Virginia transfer, Clement has averaged 76 receiving yards in his last three games. This is a pass-happy system under coordinator Barry Lunney Jr., who opts to throw it 52.9% of the time, leading to plenty of opportunities for Clement against a banged-up Spartans secondary.

• Matchup: Illinois vs. Michigan State
• Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
• TV: FS1

Prop pick #5: Jeffrey Overton Jr. Over 72.5 rushing yards

ProphetX probability: 52%

Jeffrey Overton Jr. is emerging as a breakout star, and I want to hold as many “shares” of him as I can before he becomes a full-fledged college football producer. 

It didn’t take long for the sophomore to take over the RB1 role. He’s averaging 4.55 yards after contact per attempt with a 34.2% missed tackles forced rate, so the talent is undeniable. 

He had 25 carries for 209 yards and a score against Boston College in his breakout game, before settling back down to Earth with 55 yards against Pitt a week ago. As mentioned earlier, Pitt has an elite run defense, so I’m not troubled by that output in the slightest. 

Instead, I’m encouraged by Overton’s 41 carries in the last two weeks. He should hit the Over a ton as the season goes along, including a matchup against a California defense ranked 127th in EPA per rush allowed and 120th in stuff rate. 

• Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Cal
• Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
• TV: ACCN

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