Week 6 features a clash of college football titans as Georgia and Alabama square off in the No. 1 must-watch game on Saturday, and one of only two AP Top 25 matchups on the slate.
While weather is a major concern for that heavyweight battle, it's not the only marquee game between SEC blue bloods. We'll be treated to the Texas vs. Oklahoma rivalry among my Week 6 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks.
But will the Red River Rivalry finally be competitive this year?
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 6
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Georgiavs.  Alabama |
5/5 | -1.5 ⚪ |
49% |
 Texasvs.  Oklahoma |
4/5 | -7.5 🟢 |
51% |
 UCLAvs.  Oregon |
4/5 | -10.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Indianavs.  Nebraska |
4/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
50% |
 LSUvs.  Kentucky |
4/5 | -9.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Boise Statevs.  Fresno State |
4/5 | -6.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Iowavs.  Washington |
3/5 | -2.5 ⚪ |
55% |
 USCvs.  Penn State |
3/5 | -1.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Texas A&Mvs.  Missouri |
3/5 | -3.5 🟢 |
50% |
 Ole Missvs.  Vanderbilt |
3/5 | +10.5 🟡 |
54% |
 South Carolinavs.  Florida |
3/5 | -11.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Houstonvs.  Kansas State |
3/5 | -2.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Iowa Statevs.  BYU |
2/5 | -10.5 🟢 |
50% |
 UCFvs.  Oklahoma State |
2/5 | -9.5 ⚪ |
56% |
 Kansasvs.  Utah |
2/5 | -14.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Tennesseevs.  Arkansas |
2/5 | -13.5 🟢 |
52% |
 North Carolinavs.  Pitt |
1/5 | -3.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Stanfordvs.  Notre Dame |
1/5 | -38.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Marylandvs.  Ohio State |
1/5 | -33.5 🟡 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 6 (must-watch)
Georgia (2) vs Alabama (6)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Alabama -1.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Alabama (51%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 ⚪
It's hard to have a strong feeling heading into Georgia and Alabama's matchup simply because of the weather. According to the Georgia vs. Alabama weather report, heavy rain and strong winds could have a major impact on the game, with a threat of a hurricane potentially postponing it.
If it were a clear day, the Over would be an obvious play with Alabama's explosiveness and Georgia's efficiency on offense. However, given the forecast, this game will likely come down to which team can generate more consistency offensively, and that gives Alabama the advantage (I only like Alabama at -1.5 or better, but would love the Crimson Tide if the weather wasn't a factor).
Georgia hasn't played a very competitive schedule, and against its lone semi-tough opponent (Oklahoma), QB Gunner Stockton was pedestrian (65.7 QBR, 60.9% adjusted completion rate). Nearly half of Stockton's passes have been at or behind the line of scrimmage this season (40%), and Alabama's defense can stop the run to put more pressure on him — the Tide's defense is ninth nationally in rush success (34.3%).
Meanwhile, Alabama's Keelon Russell has been arguably the best QB in the country over his last three games (13 total TDs, QBR of 96.7+ in each game). He has the Crimson Tide ranked 12th in the country in offensive success rate (51.2%).
Whether or not the weather is a factor, I like Kalen DeBoer to hand Kirby Smart another loss in Tuscaloosa. Since 2020, Smart is 2-5 straight-up and ATS against Alabama, including 0-3 in the regular season.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 6 (worth watching)
Texas (1) vs Oklahoma
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Texas -7.5 🟢
- ML pick: Texas (74%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 39.5 🟡
Oklahoma has been non-competitive in three of its four Red River Rivalry games under Brent Venables. Texas has even held the Sooners without a touchdown in three of the four games, and in its three wins, the Longhorns outscored OU by an average of 32.3 points.
This year shouldn't be any different, especially with how Oklahoma's offense has collapsed in Year 2 with John Mateer behind center. The Sooners rank 112th nationally in available yards percentage (37.4%) and last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%).
Last year, Mateer threw three interceptions, had six turnover-worthy plays, and finished with a 34.6 QBR against Texas. The Longhorns' defense is better this year, too, and ranks No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 11 in success rate (36.5%), and No. 16 in havoc rate (20.6%).
So while Texas' offense has had its inconsistencies this season with Arch Manning, the Longhorns are light years better on that side of the ball than the Sooners. Texas is at least top 50 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play on offense and offensive success rate (46.5%).
I think there's a better shot at Oklahoma putting up zero points than there is of Venables covering in Red River. I'd play Texas up to -9.5.
UCLA (21) vs Oregon (13)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Oregon -10.5 🟡
- ML pick: Oregon (79%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 58.5 🟡
Without a doubt, Bob Chesney has done an impressive job quickly turning around UCLA, but the Bruins have played four programs with losing records (a combined 8-12 overall). Fellow Big Ten programs like Purdue and Maryland aren't on the same planet in terms of talent as Oregon (even with Dylan Raiola starting at QB for the Ducks).
The average SP+ ranking of the four teams UCLA has beaten is 82.5; Dan Lanning's Ducks are ranked 10th. Oregon should be closer to a 13.5-point favorite (and I like them up to -12.5) given the combo of who UCLA's success has come against and the home-field advantage at Autzen Stadium.
Raiola is arguably the best backup QB in the country, and the former five-star recruit shined against USC when he took over for the injured Dante Moore. In that Ducks' 14-point Week 4 road win, Raiola had the highest QBR for the week (98.8), and he's had a whole extra week to prepare as Oregon's starting QB following the bye in Week 5.
UCLA's defense is ranked just 41st by SP+ and hasn't seen a group of playmakers as talented as what Oregon has, especially at wide receiver. And while Nico Iamaleava has had a nice season for the Bruins, they're just 90th in pass success rate (41.1%).
If Oregon gets up early, UCLA isn't built to come back on the road.
Indiana (7) vs Nebraska
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Indiana -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (73%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
Yes, both of these teams are undefeated, and yes, Nebraska is 4-1 ATS while Indiana is 1-4, but it's not as if the Hoosiers have been bad. Indiana played three non-Power Four programs and beat them by an average of 43 points and then cut it close against an underrated Northwestern team that hammered Penn State last week.
Last week, though? Indiana covered with ease on the road against Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite, beating the Scarlet Knights by 32. The four teams Nebraska covered against are a combined 8-12, and the only one with a winning record is an Ohio team that's 2-3 ATS.
Nebraska hasn't dealt with an offense anywhere near Indiana's level, with the Hoosiers ranking top 10 nationally in offensive success rate (51.9%) and No. 1 in net EPA per play. The Cornhuskers don't have anybody capable of stopping the wide receiver duo of Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh (combined 818 receiving yards and 12 TDs).
Indiana's defense is a bad matchup for Nebraska, too. The Cornhuskers want to run the ball, but the Hoosiers' defense is No. 7 nationally in rush success rate (33%). If Anthony Colandrea has to throw Nebraska back into this game, that's trouble. I'd take Indiana up to -8.5.
LSU (10) vs Kentucky
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: LSU -9.5 🟡
- ML pick: LSU (74%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟢
Despite winning last week on the road as an underdog against South Carolina, Kentucky is unranked heading into this matchup. That's because the Wildcats' one impressive win came against a Texas A&M team that lost by 29 to LSU.
The Aggies are bad, and the Tigers are good, especially on the defensive side of the ball where LSU ranks fourth nationally in havoc rate (24.1%). With one of the best front sevens in college football, Lane Kiffin's program has held four of its five opponents to 14 or fewer points.
If Kentucky gets down and has to throw the ball to get back into this game, Kenny Minchey will struggle. LSU is No. 1 nationally in EPA per pass, and No. 2 in pass success rate on defense (29.7%), and Minchey is 92nd in the country in QBR (48.1).
LSU's offense is 17th in the country in available yards percentage (58.6%), and its run game should wear down a Kentucky defense that's 96th in rush success rate (46.7%). The Tigers are in play for me at -11.5 or better.
Boise State (23) vs Fresno State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 10:30 p.m. ET | CW
- ATS pick: Boise State -6.5 🟡
- ML pick: Boise State (68%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 🟡
This was supposed to be the biggest game of the new Pac-12's regular season, but despite Boise State and Fresno State having identical 4-1 records, the Broncos should stampede the Bulldogs.
Fresno State has played one quality opponent, USC, and lost 39-0. Boise State has played three quality teams (Oregon, Memphis, Western Michigan) and is 3-0 ATS in those games, covering by an average of 14.5 points.
This is also a bad matchup for Fresno State. The Bulldogs' defense is strong but susceptible against the run, ranking just 85th in rush success rate (45.9%), and Boise State wants to lean on its run game with Dylan Riley. The Broncos are 30th nationally in rush success rate (48.1%).
The other side of the matchup is tough for Fresno State, too, with the Bulldogs being one of the worst teams in the country on money downs, ranking 113th in third/fourth down success (35.3%). Boise State's defense is No. 1 in college football on those downs (23.6%).
With that said, I only like Boise State to cover -6.5 or better.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 6 (interesting)
Iowa (20) vs Washington
- Game info: Friday, Oct. 9 | 9 p.m. ET | FOX or FS1
- ATS pick: Washington -2.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Washington (59%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 41.5 🟡
This is a tough game for Iowa to try and rebound from last week's loss to Ohio State. Not only did the Hawkeyes fail to cover with College GameDay on campus for the first time in two decades, but starting QB Hank Brown got banged up and is questionable against Washington.
To rub salt in the wound, Iowa's last-second win over Michigan looks a lot less impressive now after the Wolverines failed to win the Little Brown Jug last week for just the fifth time since 1968. Though Washington has had its struggles, it had USC fans sweating last week, and its defense is the reason I like the Huskies to cover -2.5 or better.
Washington's defense is 11th nationally in net EPA per play on defense and fourth in EPA per rush. The Hawkeyes' run game is one of the worst in the country, sitting at 120th in success rate (36.1%).
As long as Demond Williams Jr. can make enough plays against a shaky Iowa pass defense (91st in EPA per pass), Washington can win this game by at least three points.
USC (19) vs Penn State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Penn State -1.5 🟡
- ML pick: Penn State (51%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 ⚪
Neither USC nor Penn State has been impressive this season, but despite the Nittany Lions getting embarrassed against Northwestern last week at new Ryan Field, they're somehow in better shape.
The Trojans are 1-5 ATS this season and have failed to cover in four straight games. In their three Big Ten games, they gave up 35 points to Rutgers, lost to Oregon's backup QB at home, and needed a fourth-down stop in their own end to beat Washington. Lincoln Riley's roster is also dealing with injuries to several major players, who are all listed as questionable.
Penn State can push a USC defense that's 127th in net EPA per play and lean on its own defense (16th in net EPA per play) to make enough stops to cover at home (but I only trust the Nittany Lions to cover -2.5 or better).
Texas A&M vs Missouri (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Missouri -3.5 🟢
- ML pick: Missouri (60%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
What Missouri did to Florida last week was among the most impressive performances of the season, and an underachieving Texas A&M team isn't going to stop the momentum of Eli Drinkwitz's program.
The Tigers have one of the top QBs in the country in Austin Simmons, whose arm talent is eye-popping. He's one of only three QBs in college football this season with 12+ TD passes and zero interceptions. Simmons should take advantage of an Aggies defense that's 49th in pass success rate (41.7%).
The bigger problem for Texas A&M, though, will be scoring. Marcel Reed has struggled immensely, and Mike Elko's team is 92nd in net EPA per play on offense. Missouri just shut down one of the top offenses in the country, and I think the Tigers can cover up to -6.5.
Ole Miss (9) vs Vanderbilt
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Vanderbilt +10.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ole Miss (76%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 🟡
It sounds like Vanderbilt's freshman phenom QB Jared Curtis will be good to go for this matchup against Ole Miss. Curtis missed the Commodores' loss to Georgia, but Vandy still managed to cover and is 3-0 ATS against Power Four opponents.
Ole Miss has major issues on defense and ranks 98th in EPA per pass and 111th in EPA per rush. With Curtis, who's sixth nationally in big-time throw rate (8.4%), and his five-star arm back, Vanderbilt can turn this into a shootout against Trinidad Chambliss.
The Commodores have one of the country's best receivers in Junior Sherrill, and he and Curtis should put fear in an Ole Miss defense that's 105th in net EPA per play. With Vandy at home, I like it to cover +9.5 or better.
South Carolina vs Florida (16)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Florida -11.5 🟡
- ML pick: Florida (81%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 60.5 ⚪
Weather is projected to be a problem in this matchup, which should favor a Florida team that has one of the country's top run games. Even with last week's performance against Missouri, the Gators look like one of the most improved teams in college football. South Carolina, on the other hand, has a coach with one of the hottest seats in America.
Shane Beamer's team has failed to cover in four straight games, and with a huge performance from LaNorris Sellers last week, the Gamecocks lost outright to Kentucky as a favorite. Even if Dylan Stewart is back for this game, I like Florida to cover up to -12.5.
Jadan Baugh is the best running back in the sport and ranks third nationally in forced missed tackles (35). South Carolina's defense is 93rd in the country in rush success rate (46.5%). And if the weather is pleasant, Florida can expose a Gamecocks pass defense that's 128th in success rate (53%).
Houston (22) vs Kansas State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Kansas State -2.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Kansas State (54%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟡
Houston was down 17-0 to UCF in the second half of the Space Game last week, and if not for the Knights' QB issues, the Cougars probably would have lost at home (in a half-empty stadium, no less).
Bill Snyder Family Stadium in the Little Apple (Manhattan, Kan.) will be full with a ranked team in town, and Kansas State has had plenty of time to get ready after a bye last week. While new Wildcats head coach Collin Klein is coming off his first loss, K-State is primed for a bounce back (I like the Cats to cover -2.5 or better).
Kansas State has one of the best run games in the country (eighth in EPA per rush) and a defense built to slow down Conner Weigman. The Wildcats lead the country in pass success rate on defense (28.6%).
Tier 4 watchability for Week 6 (blowout brewing)
Iowa State vs BYU (8)
- Game info: Friday, Oct. 9 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: BYU -10.5 🟢
- ML pick: BYU (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 45.5 🟡
Even with no LJ Martin for BYU, I like the Cougars to stay undefeated ATS at home against an Iowa State team that's only played one road game this season (I'd play BYU at -12.5 or better). The Cyclones lost by 14 to Utah, and while the Cougars aren't as explosive as the Utes, they are the second-best team Iowa State has faced this season.
BYU ranks fifth nationally in offensive success rate (52.8%), and its defense is ranked 13th by SP+. Against the two defenses Iowa State has played that are ranked top 25 by SP+, the Cyclones failed to score more than 17 points
UCF vs Oklahoma State (18)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | noon ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: Oklahoma State -9.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Oklahoma State (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 52.5 🟡
UCF is an unexplainable team that can beat TCU outright as an underdog or blow a 17-0 second-half lead to lose to Houston. And while Scott Frost's program has been shockingly strong ATS (4-1), Oklahoma State has the best QB this overachieving UCF defense has seen this season.
Drew Mestemaker is top 10 in the Power Four in big-time throw rate (6.7%), and he's surrounded by big-play weapons in Caleb Hawkins, Wyatt Young, and Justin Bowick (1,248 combined yards). But it's the Pokes' defense that has me liking them to cover -9.5 or better.
Oklahoma State ranks eighth nationally in pass success rate on defense (33.7%) and shouldn't have any trouble stopping UCF backup QB Keyone Jenkins.
Kansas vs Utah (12)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Utah -14.5 🟢
- ML pick: Utah (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡
Utah is the best team in the Big 12, to me, and it has shown no signs of slowing down. The Utes are 4-0 ATS, and Devon Dampier has their offense 13th in the country in available yards percentage (60.7%).
Utah should blow out a Kansas team with one of the ugliest passing attacks in the Power Four. The Jayhawks rank 125th nationally in pass success rate (34%), which should allow Utah to lock in on stopping the run, something the Utes are quite good at (14th in EPA per rush).
With Utah coming off a bye and covering by an average of 11.5 points, I'd take the Utes at -16.5 or better.
Tennessee (15) vs Arkansas
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 4:15 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Tennessee -13.5 🟢
- ML pick: Tennessee (82%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 ⚪
Tennessee is set to start George MacIntyre at QB this week after he came in for Faizon Brandon last week to beat Auburn (and cover as a 6.5-point favorite). This matchup should be much easier for MacIntyre, with Arkansas looking like one of the worst P4 teams in Ryan Silverfield's first season.
The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS (0-3 in P4 play) and have lost by at least 27 to every Power Four opponent. Arkansas' run defense is one of the worst in the country (128th in EPA per rush), and DeSean Bishop, who has the Vols ranked fifth in rush success rate (51.8%), should cook the Hogs.
The Vols should be favored by at least 16.5, and I would take them up to -16.5 in a heartbeat.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 6 (it's still football)
North Carolina vs Pitt (25)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | noon ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Pitt -3.5 🟡
- ML pick: Pitt (62%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 🟡
After Virginia Tech missed a game-winning field goal last week to hand Pitt a win, Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi said, "Wow. We've got a helluva football team. Now any of those voters out there, if they wake their asses up, they might figure that out."
The voters ranked Pitt, and now they can justify it by beating North Carolina. The problem is, in the win over the Hokies, Pitt lost star QB Mason Heintschel. Luckily for Narduzzi, North Carolina has one of the worst offenses in the country (103rd in net EPA per play).
Pitt can grind out a win with its defense, which ranks 10th in success rate (36.2%). I'd take Pitt up to -6.5.
Stanford vs Notre Dame (3)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 3:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -38.5 🟡
- ML pick: Notre Dame (98%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 🟡
Stanford just lost by 54 points to Wake Forest as a 14.5-point underdog. Following that up by playing a Notre Dame team that's No. 1 in the country in net adjusted EPA per play is a tough pill to swallow for Andrew Luck and Tavita Pritchard's program.
With Stanford's defense ranked 115th in pass success (50.3%), I think CJ Carr can lead Notre Dame to at least a 42-point win, and I'd take the Fighting Irish at -41.5 or better.
Maryland vs Ohio State (5)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 10 | 4:15 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: Ohio State -33.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ohio State (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 ⚪
Mike Locksley is on his last legs at Maryland after the Terrapins' terrible start to the season. Maryland has been outscored 137-52 by its three Power Four opponents and is 0-3 ATS in those games.
Ohio State is in play at -34.5 or better with Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin leading an offense that's top 10 in offensive success rate (51.6%), net EPA per play, and available yards percentage (66%).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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