The Pittsburgh Steelers have a huge rest and travel edge as home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts ahead of their 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 11.
My top Colts vs. Steelers prediction and NFL picks expect Pittsburgh to capitalize on the scheduling advantage, with Jaylen Warren leading the way in miserable weather.
Colts vs Steelers prediction: Steelers moneyline
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a massive rest and travel advantage this week, so I recommend the Steelers moneyline to 62%.
Pittsburgh played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, while the Indianapolis Colts are returning from London for this road game.
This puts an Indy defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA in a tough spot. The Colts have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage while also allowing the sixth-highest rushing yards per attempt, after all.
So, with Pittsburgh set up to move the ball on the ground in horrible weather conditions, I expect the Steelers to dominate the time of possession and hold the Colts in check offensively Sunday afternoon.
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Colts vs Steelers combo
I’m expecting both offenses to struggle moving the ball through the air, with the weather forecast calling for a 98% chance of heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias and steady 12-mph winds.
The field at Acrisure Stadium is likely to be highly compromised, too, which should lead to sloppy football and conservative, ground-heavy game scripts.
With both teams likely leaning on the ground game, the clock should continue to churn and keep this total Under the number.
Turning to Steelers running back Jaylen Warren, he’s run wild over the past two weeks for 220 total yards and is set up for success again against the highlighted soft Indy run defense.
Colts vs Steelers combo
- Steelers moneyline
- Under 43.5
- Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing yards
TOP PICK
Colts vs Steelers player prop: Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing yards
Warren has rolled over defenses the past two weeks to the tune of 134 yards after contact and an elite 85 breakaway yards.
The field conditions and weather forecast for Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium will force Pittsburgh into a run-heavy game script, and Indianapolis has been shredded on the ground with a 24th-ranked run defense DVOA while ranking 30th in PFF run defense grade.
Warren also sports a high-end 28.1% broken-tackle rate, and backfield mate Rico Dowdle has been limited with a toe injury in practice again this week after missing the past two games.
It all adds up to another big game on the ground for Warren, and I’d recommend this particular Over to 56%, in addition to Warren recording 65+ rushing yards to 53%.
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COVERS INTEL: The Indianapolis Colts allowed the second-highest rushing success rate and third-highest EPA per rush through their first two games before facing two weaker rushing attacks over the past two weeks.Colts vs Steelers odds
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- Spread: Colts +2.5 | Steelers -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (51%) | Under 43.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Colts 42% | Steelers 59%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
- Top picks: 25-18, +6.79 units
- Combos: 0-9, -9 units
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Colts vs Steelers weather
The forecast calls for a high weather impact at Acrisure Stadium, featuring a 98% chance of heavy rain from Hurricane Isaias remnants, a temperature of 64°F, and steady 12 mph winds likely forcing a conservative, ground-heavy game script.
With the Pittsburgh Panthers hosting the North Carolina Tar Heels at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 10, there won't be a recovery window for the Tahoma 31 Bermuda grass surface, either.
Expect the field to be severely compromised Sunday afternoon for this Week 5 tilt.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Colts vs Steelers trend to know
Indianapolis has covered the spread in six of its last nine road games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Steelers.
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How to watch Colts vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Colts vs Steelers latest injuries
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