Week 6 is one of those boards where the moneyline is a lot more interesting than the spread.
Florida State is sitting at 39%, USC is basically a coin flip at Penn State, and Alabama is getting just a 51% chance at home against Georgia. Those are the spots I want to attack.
My college football moneyline picks cover 10 games across Friday and Saturday, including a few underdogs I think are very live to win outright.
Check out more college football picks throughout the week.
Week 6 college football moneyline picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Iowa at  Washington |
58% |
 Florida State at  Louisville |
39% |
 Texas A&M at  Missouri |
61% |
 Texas vs  Oklahoma |
75% |
 USC at  Penn State |
49% |
 Georgia at  Alabama |
51% |
 Minnesota at  Purdue |
54% |
 Houston at  Kansas State |
45% |
 North Carolina at  Pitt |
63% |
 North Dakota State at  UNLV |
59% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 6 CFB moneyline picks
Iowa at Washington: Washington
Washington went 1-for-12 on third down, allowed five sacks, and still drove into USC's red zone with a chance to win last week. That's encouraging heading home.
Iowa can turn this into a rock fight, but Washington has the better quarterback ceiling with Demond Williams and enough offensive juice to manufacture the few explosive plays this matchup may require.
Florida State at Louisville: Florida State
Florida State just ran Virginia off the field, piling up 281 rushing yards while holding the Cavaliers to 37. Ashton Daniels accounted for 136 rushing yards and five touchdowns himself.
That's a nasty formula for an underdog because it travels: run the ball, control the game, and make Louisville tackle Daniels for four quarters.
At 39%, I don't need FSU to be better. I need this game closer than the market thinks.
Texas A&M at Missouri: Missouri
Texas A&M finally flexed its muscles against Arkansas, but Missouri's response to its first loss was even louder: 35 unanswered points in a 45-17 demolition of No. 8 Florida. The Aggies want Marcel Reed and the run game dictating terms.
In Columbia, I'm trusting Missouri makes them sustain drives through the air instead. The Tigers have already shown they can bury good teams quickly at home.
Texas vs Oklahoma: Texas
Red River loves chaos, but I'm not overthinking this one. Texas has won the last two meetings by a combined 57-9, owns the better defense, and comes out of the bye healthier. Arch Manning hasn't even needed to carry this team yet.
Oklahoma has to prove it can consistently move the ball against an elite defense before I'm interested in betting on rivalry magic to close a talent gap this large.
USC at Penn State: USC
Penn State just allowed Northwestern to run for 413 yards in a 34-13 beatdown. That's not a typo. Meanwhile, USC showed some backbone rallying from 11 down against Washington, and its defense generated five sacks.
Jayden Maiava has 1,744 passing yards and 15 touchdowns through six games, giving USC the quarterback advantage I want in a coin-flip market. Penn State's preseason reputation is doing more work than its current form.
Georgia at Alabama: Alabama
Georgia is 5-0, hasn't trailed all season, and leads the SEC in scoring defense. So why Alabama? Because the Tide are the only FBS team to score 45+ in every game, they're at Bryant-Denny, and Kirby Smart is 2-7 against Alabama.
Georgia hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2007. At essentially a coin flip, I'll trust Alabama's offensive ceiling and a matchup that has repeatedly been Smart's kryptonite.
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Minnesota at Purdue: Minnesota
Purdue deserves credit for winning at Illinois, but Minnesota's defense gives me the more repeatable formula. The Gophers just held Michigan to 180 total yards, 11 first downs, and zero second-half points while possessing the ball for nearly 38 minutes.
Minnesota doesn't need Drake Lindsey to light up the scoreboard. Play defense, shorten the game, and make Purdue string together long drives. I'll gladly take that profile at 54%.
Houston at Kansas State: Houston
Houston spotted UCF 17 points last week, then scored 27 unanswered. More importantly, its defense allowed just 35 yards and one first down over the final 24 minutes.
Kansas State is rested and dangerous in Manhattan, but it's also coming off a loss and leans heavily on Avery Johnson to create offense.
At 45%, I'll take Conner Weigman's playmaking and a Houston defense capable of completely flipping a game.
North Carolina at Pitt: Pitt
North Carolina hung around with Notre Dame, but the Irish still outgained it 475-285 and ran for 241 yards. That's a bad profile for a road trip to Pittsburgh.
Pitt is 5-0, has forced timely turnovers, and is 4-0 at home while outscoring opponents 157-34.
UNC can hit explosives through Billy Edwards, but asking it to win the line of scrimmage here consistently is a much tougher proposition.
North Dakota State at UNLV: North Dakota State
NDSU isn't playing FBS tourist anymore. The unbeaten Bison just blanked Wyoming 28-0, allowing eight first downs and 162 total yards.
UNLV survived Cal despite surrendering 464 yards, including 395 through the air. Jackson Arnold makes the Rebels dangerous, but NDSU's physicality, defense, and ability to control possession are exactly how you keep a dual-threat quarterback parked on the sideline. I'm buying the Bison at 59%.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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