USC vs Penn State Picks & Props
USC vs PSU Picks
NCAAF PicksUSC has looked lifeless to start 2026, failing to cover since Week 1 while now facing a difficult road spot across two time zones. The Trojans have already shown plenty of cracks, and I expect Matt Campbell and Penn State to capitalize. The Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back losses, but I love this spot for a bounce-back win.
King Miller (3.68 yards after contact per attempt) and Waymond Jordan (Big Ten-leading 37% missed tackles forced rate) will eat against a defense that surrendered a whopping 413 rushing yards and four scores last week to Northwestern.
I'm on USC moneyline at 52% or below, and against the spread at any plus number. Penn State's offense isn't effective (103rd in success rate on standard downs), and the defense can't stop the run (133rd in EPA per rush allowed). USC's offense is the best unit on the field by a wide margin.
Good down to 53.5. Neither offense is in any particular hurry, and the leisurely tempo should temper scoring expectations. USC ranks 102nd in snaps per minute (28.0), and Penn State is 83rd (27.1).
The Under is good down to 53.5. It'll be difficult for this game to shoot out given the leisurely tempo; USC checks in at 102nd in snaps per minute (28.0), and Penn State isn't far ahead at 83rd (27.1).
Play USC down to -2.5. This is a fade of Penn State, which managed 3.6 yards per play against Wisconsin at home --- squandering a 17-0 lead aided by three turnovers --- and got outgained by 215 yards against Northwestern.
Penn State just doesn't have many buttons to press offensively. That'll result in a low-scoring game from the get-go, and USC can capitalize with its superior offensive game plan, personnel, and execution.
USC vs PSU Consensus Picks
USC vs PSU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RUSHING YARDS
USC
W. Jordan
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
47.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.7
DIFFERENCE
25.96%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
USC
K. Miller
(RB)
o71.5 Rushing Yards
79.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
24.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
PSU
J. Peoples
(RB)
o53.5 Rushing Yards
57.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.1
DIFFERENCE
17.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
M. Bowman
(TE)
o33.5 Receiving Yards
39.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.2
DIFFERENCE
23.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PSU
B. Eskildsen
(WR)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
47.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
17.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PSU
B. Brahmer
(TE)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
43.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
12.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PSU
C. Sowell
(WR)
u62.5 Receiving Yards
61.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
5.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
PSU
C. Sowell
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USC
M. Bowman
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
3.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
PSU
B. Brahmer
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
3.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USC
T. Hines
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-15.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
USC
J. Maiava
(QB)
u20.5 Completions
20.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.42%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Nittany Lions last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 home games.
Over is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.