Over a month into the college football season, a half dozen Group of Six programs have separated themselves as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.
Two of those teams remain undefeated, North Dakota State and James Madison, and they top my Week 6 Group of Six picks with favorable matchups on Saturday.
My G6 college football picks also include Oregon State and Memphis teams with budding stars behind center.
Week 6 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 UConnvs  Temple |
|
 San Diego Statevs  Oregon State |
-14.5 51% |
 UAB vs  Memphis |
-14.5 49% |
 North Dakota Statevs  UNLV |
-3.5 47% |
 James Madisonvs  Georgia Southern |
-7.5 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
UConn vs Temple: UConn +3.5
These two old Big East programs had wild Week 5 performances, with UConn rallying from down 27-7 to force overtime against Syracuse before failing to stop a two-point conversion and losing 42-41. Temple had better luck, with Ajani Sheppard running for a 34-yard touchdown with three minutes to go to beat South Florida 17-13.
While Temple got the win and UConn didn't, the Owls actually had a lower net success rate than the Bulls in their win. That won't cut it against a Huskies offense ranked 65th by SP+ and led by one of the best G6 QBs, Kalieb Osborne. Osborne leads the G6 in big-time throw rate (10.2%) and ranks No. 6 nationally among QBs in rushing yards after contact (239).
UConn has the offense to win outright, though I like them to cover +2.5 or better, against a Temple defense that's one of the worst in the country. The Owls' defense ranks outside the top 120 in early-down EPA per play and third/fourth down success (55.7%).
San Diego State vs Oregon State: Oregon State -14.5
In one of the most bizarre games of Week 5, a San Diego State program ravaged by mumps somehow came back from down 17-3 to beat Texas State. However, the final score is misleading. The Aztecs were outgained 565 to 239 and benefited from multiple fourth-down stops, a pick-six, a kick return touchdown, a safety, and a missed field goal to win 31-29.
San Diego State had the second-lowest net success rate in the country among winning teams in Week 5, and I think Oregon State can cover -16.5 or better. The Beavers have one of the most efficient offenses in the G6, ranking 13th in net EPA per play, 19th in available yards percentage (58.3%), and 24th in offensive explosiveness (1.325).
QB Braden Atkinson leads the country in passing yards (1,848) and sits No. 2 in TD passes (16), while freshman receiver Jesse Legree has emerged as one of the best players in the sport, ranking top 10 nationally in YAC (339) and yards per route run (4.49). They should stress an Aztecs defense ranked 95th in pass success rate (46.8%).
Oregon State head coach Jamarcus Shephard doesn't mess around (he's 5-0 ATS), and his Beavers should be as prepared for San Diego State as they are for the mumps.
UAB vs Memphis: Memphis -14.5
Nobody flips a roster like Charles Huff. He won the Sun Belt two years ago at Marshall, improved a 1-11 Southern Miss team to 7-5 last year, and now has a Memphis program that lost its coach (Ryan Silverfield) to the SEC (Arkansas) playing like a CFP contender.
With a roster made up almost entirely of transfers, Huff's Tigers are 3-1 ATS in FBS play, and they aren't just covering... they're annihilating opponents. In Memphis' three FBS wins, it's covered the spread by an average of 16.8 points. Against a UAB team that's 1-3 ATS since Week 2, I like Memphis to cover up to -16.5.
The Tigers have one of the top offenses in the country, ranking fifth in available yards percentage (65.2%) and 17th in offensive success rate (49.9%). QB Marcus Stokes is seventh nationally in QBR (87.9), and running back Jaylin Carter is 13th in rushing yards (513).
They should burn a Dragons defense that's 89th in success rate (46.1%).
North Dakota State vs UNLV: North Dakota State -3.5
UNLV is hard to gauge given it was supposed to be a CFP contender but started the season with two outright losses as a favorite. I'm not overvaluing last week's 39-31 win over Cal, which was just the third by a G6 team over a Power Four team this season. The Golden Bears are a mess and nearly came back from down 24-7 in the second half with a backup QB.
North Dakota State is a machine that just won the first Battle of the Basins 28-0 as a 17.5-point favorite. The Bison haven't had any issues making the jump from the FCS and are the third-highest ranked G6 team by SP+ (38th). I would play them up to -6.5 against the Rebels.
Dan Mullen wants to run the ball and take shots downfield, two areas where the Bison's defense excels. North Dakota State's defense is No. 2 in defensive points per opportunity (1.63), No. 13 in EPA per rush, and No. 14 in net EPA per drive. UNLV won't score enough to cover.
James Madison vs Georgia Southern: James Madison -7.5
From FCS powerhouses to Sun Belt rivals, James Madison and Georgia Southern have had very different FBS experiences. The Dukes are in position to make a run at a second straight College Football Playoff appearance, while the Eagles are 1-3 against FBS teams this season.
JMU is one of only 10 undefeated programs ATS this season (5-0), and covering on the road has been no issue for Billy Napier's program. In two road games, the Dukes have covered by an average of 17.5 points. Against Georgia Southern, I like them to cover -9.5 or better.
While James Madison's offense is what's made it G6 royalty this season (44.8 ppg), its defense is what makes it so terrifying. The Dukes are 17th nationally in defensive success rate (37.7%) and should eat Georgia Southern QB Max Johnson alive. Johnson is third nationally in turnover-worthy plays (10).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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