With College GameDay in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Georgia and Alabama square off for the fourth time since 2024, when the two SEC powers take the field at Bryant-Denny Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Crimson Tide are 1.5-point favorites in a matchup expected to be severely impacted by the weather, which is why my Georgia vs. Alabama parlays and college football picks project the focus to be on the defenses and run games.
Best Georgia vs Alabama parlays
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Georgia vs Alabama combo
Alabama ML
Under 51.5
First half Under 26.5
Kirby Smart hasn't had the most success in the regular season against Alabama. Since 2020, Georgia is 0-3 straight-up against the Crimson Tide and has lost each of the last two regular-season matchups against Kalen DeBoer.
Given the Georgia vs. Alabama weather report, it will likely only take a few scores to win this game, and the Crimson Tide have the clear QB advantage. Keelon Russell ranks third nationally in QBR (91.0), and Alabama is ninth in the country in EPA per pass.
In a game that could get off to a slow start due to the wet conditions and one of these defenses (Georgia) being ranked No. 1 by SP+ and the other (Alabama) ranking top 25 nationally in havoc rate (20%) and success rate (37.9%), Russell's dual-threat ability could make all the difference.
Georgia vs Alabama touchdown combo
Keelon Russell anytime TD
Trae'shawn Brown anytime TD
Nate Frazier anytime TD
The biggest reason I'm on the Crimson Tide in my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction is because of Keelon Russell. The former five-star recruit has been the best QB in college football the last three weeks and is now among the Heisman Trophy odds favorites.
Over his last three games, Russell has 13 total touchdowns, and his mobility has been an X-factor. The second-year QB has run for a TD in four of five games this season, including three straight, and ranks top 10 in the Power Four in runs of 10-plus yards among QBs (10).
Russell's usage as a runner won't just help him find the end zone against Georgia; it will open things up for Alabama's running backs. Freshman Trae'shawn Brown has emerged as Alabama's most consistent back, and in Alabama's two biggest games (Florida State, Mississippi State), he led the Tide in carries and rushing yards with a combined 26 for 152 and three scores.
Both teams will likely lean on the ground game, which should mean a heavy workload for Nate Frazier, too. Georgia's No. 2 back, Chauncey Bowens, is out, so Frazier should see close to 20 carries. He's a bowling ball of a runner averaging 5.08 yards after contact per carry with five touchdowns this season.
Georgia vs Alabama milestone combo
Gunner Stockton Under 206.5 passing yards
Nate Frazier Over 49.5 rushing yards
Keelon Russell Over 20.5 rushing yards
If the weather lives up to the hype, it's hard to imagine Georgia throwing the ball all that much against an Alabama defense ranked top 25 nationally in EPA per pass. And in Gunner Stockton's only game against a defense ranked top 50 by SP+ this year (Oklahoma), he was nothing special.
Against the Sooners, Stockton threw for just 171 yards with a 65.8 QBR and a 60.9% adjusted completion percentage. But with Bowens out for Georgia, it will need Frazier to be at his best, and with him as healthy as he's been this year, he should cruise past 50 rushing yards based on his sheer volume.
Frazier has gone Over 49.5 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 games, including against Alabama in the SEC Championship last year. But the Tide have a far more dynamic starting QB this year than they did in that SEC Championship loss to the Bulldogs.
Russell's easy running style has been compared to former Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, and he's averaging 36.8 rushing yards per game. He could see a career-high in carries against Georgia, too, due to the weather.
- Combos: 5-15, -0.84 units
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